Real Climate Science

“CHANGES IN THE WORLD’S CLIMATE

A complete account of the causes of these great climatic fluctuations has still to be worked out, but we may perhaps point out some of the chief of them. Prominent among them is the fact that the earth does not spin in a perfect circle round the sun. Its path or orbit is like a hoop that is distorted; it is, roughly speaking, elliptical (ovo-elliptical), and the sun is nearer to one end of the ellipse than the other. It is a ta point which is a focus of the ellipse. And the shape of this orbit never remains the same. It is slowly distorted by the attractions of the other planets, for ages it may be nearly circular, for ages it is more or less elliptical. As the ellipse becomes most nearly circular, then the focus becomes most nearly the centre.
When the orbit becomes most elliptical, then the position of the sun becomes most remote from the middle or, to use the astronomer’s phrase, most eccentric. When the orbit is most nearly circular, then it must be manifest that all the year round the earth must be getting much the same amount of heat from the sun; when the orbit is most distorted, then there will be a season in each year when the earth is nearest the sun (this phase is called Perihelion) and getting a great deal of heat comparatively, and a season when it will be at its farthest from the sun (Aphelion) and getting very little warmth. A planet at aphelion is travelling its slowest, and its fastest at perihelion; so that the hot part of its year will last for a much less time than the cold part of its year. (Sir Robert Ball calculated that the greatest difference possible between the seasons was thirty-three days.) During ages when the orbit is most nearly circular there will therefore be least extremes of climate, and when the orbit is at its greatest eccentricity, there will be an age of cold with great extremes of seasonal temperature. These changes in the orbit of the earth are due to the varying pull of all the planets, and Sir Robert Ball declared himself unable to calculate any regular cycle of orbital change, but Professor G. H. Darwin maintained that it is possible to make out a kind of cycle between greatest and least eccentricity of about 200,000 years.

But this change in the shape of the orbit is only one cause of the change of the world’s climate. There are many others that have to be considered with it. As most people know, the change in the seasons is due to the fact that the equator of the earth is inclined at an angle to the plane of its orbit. If the earth stood up straight in its orbit, so that its equator was in the plane of its orbit, there would be no change in the seasons at all. The sun would always be overhead at the equator, and the day and night would each be exactly twelve hours long throughout the year everywhere. It is this inclination which causes the difference in the seasons and the unequal length of the day in summer and winter. There is, according to Laplace, a possible variation of nearly three degrees (from 22° 6’ to 24° 50’) in this inclination of the equator to the orbit, and when this is at a maximum, the difference between summer and winter is at its greatest. Great importance has been attached to this variation in the inclination of the equator to the orbit by Dr. Croll in his book Climate and Time. At present the angle is 23° 27’. Manifestly when the angle is at its least, the world’s climate, other things being equal, will be most equable.

And as a third important factor there is what is called the precession of the equinoxes. This is a slow wobble of the pole of the spinning earth that takes 25,000 odd years. Any one who watches a spinning top as it “sleeps,” will see its axis making a slow circular movement, exactly after the fashion of this circling movement of the earth’s axis. The north pole, therefore, does not always point to the same north point among the stars; its pointing traces out a circle in the heavens every 25,000 years.”

The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Outline of History, by H. G. Wells.

“SCIENCE

THE ICE AGE COMETH?

Last week’s big chill was a reminder that the earth’s climate can change at any time

JUST AS LAST WEEK’S TREMORS WERE destroying highways, buildings and lives in Southern California, an even deadlier natural disaster was advancing slowly but inexorably south from Canada into the U.S. By midweek a huge mass of frigid arctic air had practically paralyzed much of the Midwest and East.
Temperatures in dozens of cities dropped toall-time lows: -22°F in Pittsburgh; -25° in Akron, Ohio, and Clarksburg, West Virginia; -27° in Indianapolis, Indiana. Chicago schools closed because of cold weather for the first time in history, Federal Government offices shut down in Washington, and East Coast cities narrowly escaped widespread power outages as overburdened electric utilities struggled to keep homes heated. Hundreds of motorists in New Jersey had to be rescued by snowmobile from an impassably icy highway, and thousands of the homeless crammed into New York City’s shelters to avoid freezing. By week’s end the unprecedented cold wave had killed more than 130 people.

What ever happened to global warming? Scientists have issued apocalyptic warnings for years, claiming that gases from cars, power plants and factories are creating a greenhouse effect that will boost the temperature dangerously over the next 75 years or so. But if last week is any indication of winters to come, it might be more to the point to start worrying about the next Ice Age instead. After all, human-induced warming is still largely theoretical, while ice ages are an established part of the planet’s history. The last one ended about 10,000 years ago; the next one—for there will be a next one—could start tens of thousands of years from now. Or tens of years.
Or it may have already started.”

Time Magazine January 31, 1994

The Ice Age Cometh? – TIME

The academic community is demanding censorship of the Climate Movie, and they appear to have had some success in that regard.  Meanwhile, the Washington Post confirms one of the central themes of the movie – that charged particles have a large impact on earth’s temperatures.

“Northern Lights slash a surprising amount of winter energy bills. Here’s why.

High aurora activity can cause temperatures to rise and decrease energy consumption, according to a study conducted in Finland

By Kasha Patel
March 23, 2024 at 10:47 a.m. EDT

Over many Finnish winters, scientist Timo Asikainen made an observation in his grandma’s old house common to many: when it was cold, money spent on electricity went up. It turns out, though, those cold spells and his energy bills were influenced by an unexpected source in plain sight, the aurora borealis.

More than 90 million miles away from Earth, the sun is constantly spewing out charged particles in our direction, sometimes triggering the ultimate celestial light show — an aurora, also known as the northern and southern lights. Now, Finnish scientists have determined that such strong geomagnetic activity around the country can cause warmer weather and lower electricity consumption over a winter season.

In a new study, Asikainen and his graduate student Veera Juntunen found that auroral activity altered electricity consumption by as much as 14 percent in Finland. Very high geomagnetic activity led to a reduction of as much as 600 gigawatt hours of consumption compared to when activity was average — about the monthly heating energy of about 330,000 Finnish households, Asikainen said.

“Never it has been really thought that this kind of space weather effect could influence electricity consumption,” said Juntunen, the study co-author and doctoral student at University of Oulu.

How auroras affect winter temperatures

Over the past decade, Asikainen, a researcher in the Space Climate group at the University of Oulu, and his colleagues have explored how space weather can affect our planet’s weather and climate. Space weather describes the space environment between the sun and Earth, which is influenced by the sun’s electrically charged particles and can impact our technologies.

But the new study is the first to show how this space weather can effect electricity consumption on Earth.

While the sun can influence Earth’s temperatures with its ultraviolet radiation, its stream of energetic particles can also affect other aspects of our weather system — including if cold blasts of air will escape from the Arctic.

Nobody knows all the nitty-gritty details yet, but Asikainen said the journey begins where our upper atmosphere meets space. Charged particles from the sun aimed at Earth can temporarily disturb the protective magnetic bubble surrounding our planet called the magnetosphere. Solar particles can travel along Earth’s magnetic field lines into our upper atmosphere, where it excites molecules and releases photons of light that we see as an aurora.”

Northern Lights slash a surprising amount of winter energy bills. Here’s why. – The Washington Post

This idea was understood a century ago, but climate academia has become too corrupt to do actual science.

Switzerland’s Lake Morat dried up.

04 Sep 1921, 61 – New York Herald at Newspapers.com

This is what Lake Morat looks like now.

25 Jun 1921, Page 2 – The Indianapolis News at Newspapers.com

There was a large solar storm on May 15 of that year.

The Great Storm of May 1921: An Exemplar of a Dangerous Space Weather Event – Hapgood – 2019 – Space Weather – Wiley Online Library

(PDF) The 1859 space weather event revisited: Limits of extreme activity

15 May 1921, 7 – Austin American-Statesman at Newspapers.com

15 May 1921, 1 – Chattanooga Daily Times at Newspapers.com

15 May 1921, 55 – The San Francisco Examiner at Newspapers.com

The San Francisco Examiner  devoted three pages to an explanation of how the drought was linked to behavior of the planets and the sun.

1921 was the second warmest year on record in the US, prior to data tampering.

NASA 1999

Dec 15, 1921, page 7 – The Dearborn County Register at Newspapers.com

“THE WHITE HOUSE

September 17, 1969

The process is a simple one, Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has the effect of a pane of glass in a greenhouse. The CO2 content is normally in a stable cycle, but recently man has begun to introduce instability through the burning of fossil fuels, At the turn of the century several persons raised the question whether this would change the temperature of the atmosphere. Over the years the hypothesis has been refined, and more evidence has come along to support it. It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York.
Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

Wayback Machine

Another discussion of how the press and academics work together to create third rate science fiction.

“1-hour sessions to learn and implement solutions to decarbonate Real Estate, organized by partner associations recognized in the industry.”

MIPIM 2024 PROGRAMME_2024.pdf

People have been fleeing the cold weather of the north and moving to warmer climates in the south, but the Atlantic says global warming will cause them to move from Arizona to Michigan.  About 90% of my fraternity house at ASU were climate refugees from the upper Midwest

America’s Climate Boomtowns Are Waiting – The Atlantic

Meanwhile, back in the real world ..

“Five Southern States Account for Most of Nation’s Population Growth

Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and South Carolina added almost 1.2 million people between them this year. The South was the only region to draw net new residents from other states.”

Five Southern States Account for Most of Nation’s Population Growth

Experts also say we will all have to move to Antarctica.

Climate change study predicts refugees fleeing into Antarctica – Telegraph

One of the largest uses of Colorado River water is growing corn to produce biofuels.

“To mitigate climate impacts associated with energy consumption, renewable fuel policies have been established in the USA that encourage production and use of corn ethanol. Current fuel usage of corn ethanol is approximately 15 billion gallons/year (57 billion liters/year), with nearly all of this in the form of E10 (10% blend in gasoline). There is now interest in increasing fuel ethanol usage to achieve nationwide levels of E20 or greater. Due to lack of capacity and poor economics, cellulosic ethanol cannot contribute significantly to increased fuel ethanol production in the near term. Thus, rapid growth of fuel ethanol usage implies expansion of corn ethanol beyond current levels. The objective of this study was to assess the potential water requirements of expanding corn ethanol to provide for nationwide E20 fuel by 2025.

Potential water requirements of increased ethanol fuel in the USA | Energy, Sustainability and Society | Full Text

“The Ice Age Cometh?

What ever happened to global warming? Scientists have issued apocalyptic warnings for years, claiming that gases from cars, power plants and factories are creating a greenhouse effect that will boost the temperature dangerously over the next 75 years or so. But if last week is any indication of winters to come, it might be more to the point to start worrying about the next Ice Age instead. ”

Time Magazine Jan. 31, 1994

The Ice Age Cometh? – TIME

“Stephen Schneider of the National Center for Atmospheric Research described the scientists’ dilemma this way: “On the one hand, as scientists, we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but—which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well.

And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.”

Discover Magazine October 1989