http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2010/hurricane-climatology.gif
On August 5, NOAA reiterated their belief that this would be an active hurricane season
8 to 12 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
4 to 6 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
Five weeks later, hurricanes have fallen below the 1944-2005 average. Things could change, but with SSTs plummeting, reaching those numbers doesn’t seem very likely.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
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NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the oceans to surface of the sun
“Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge of Truth and Knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods.”- Albert Einstein
SSTs are one factor amongst many. Total heat content is just as important, as is shear, dry air etc. That the year be on average or another 2005 is more due to the combination of factors and cycles than any one aspect, including CAGW (likely the least important of all).
Advanced warning of TC development and arrival is certainly critical and satellites and models help.
When can we expect a follow-up to this post?