1988 was a very good year for James Hansen. He testified before Congress with the air conditioning sabotaged by Tim Wirth. He forecast that Manhattan would be drowning by now. And he forecast 5°C warming by 2040 in an interview he gave for the CBC’s “Survival” program, reported on page nine of Suzuki’s book.
We are almost at the halfway mark in 2010, and temperatures have been flat for a decade.
No wonder Hansen is working so hard to squeeze every hundredth of a degree of extra warming out of the temperature record. He can’t admit he was wrong, and apparently prefers to take the whole world down with him.
h/t to Marc Morano
So… won’t the people of 2040 get the chance of saying “it’s worse than we thought”?
An interesting post from Bob Tisdale over at WUWT.
It appears there was a step change (up of course) in HADSST when they changed their measuring systems.
Funny how Vicky Pope forgot to mention this.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/11/26/does-hadley-centre-sea-surface-temperature-data-hadsst2-underestimate-recent-warming/#more-28356
The step change was in 1998.
1998 was the year they quite even pretending to be honest brokers. We can all recall the massive media/propaganda push by the alarmists. They used an extraordinary El Nino event a “proof” of GW and an indictment of CO2.
1998, curious, the 2 videos at the link show something happening at that time:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/11/27/met-office-challenge-part-2/#comment-16037
But in GISS
5 degrees. Wow, even with his own fiddled numbers, he’s not even in the ball park.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1988/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1988
That would be a rise of 0.4 degrees in almost 23 years. Real scary stuff. Well, he’s got 29 more years to fiddle with the numbers to make his predictions right.
May I say “but you are forgetting about the tipping points”!
Anne:
The pronouncements coming from the meteorological agencies these days it appears that the tipping points are now being reached each day while tipping a glass of their favorite distilled beverage prior to dreaming up their claims of catastrophic futures.
And of course in the 22 years since then no one has refined the estimates.
Oh, wait, they have (IPCC, 2001).
Funny, I don’t see any projections of 5C by 2050.
As for your laughable (less than) ten year trend, there are good reasons no one in the climate community uses 10 years for trends (30 years is standard). It’s because they don’t mean anything for climate. They bounce all over the place. It is like going outside and saying “It’s cooler than yesterday – the next month must be going to be cold”. IOW – it is complete nonsense.
tl;dr: Nice strawman.
As you point out, thirty years is obviously too long for climate scientists to make reasonable predictions – so they should stop doing it. Forecasting even one month has proven impossible for the Met Office and NOAA.
Thanks for demonstrating, once again, how you can’t actually address people’s actual arguments, only your own strawmen.
it is not a straw man if they actually said it
Benjamin:
That may be one of the major problems with the climate community. Claiming that 30 years is “Climate” is a sign of being narrow minded and suffering from mental myopia. It is now known that long term ocean atmosphere weather patterns last anywhere from 40 to 80 years with an average of 60 years for some regions. It is known that there are more than a few such patterns governing climate on a regional basis.
That results in 30 years being weather at best. Some regions are affected by 3 or more regional weather patterns that either compliment, restrict or enhance each other and they are not all following the same time line. One may be on a 40 years cycle and another on a 80 year cycle and a third is 60. That results in a variety of weather in a given region over hundreds of years and means you would need as much as a thousand years to determine climate in just one region and maybe a couple of Million years to determine climate on a global scale.
Your using the word NONSENSE is a mild descriptor for the results from the IPCC faithful. I personally tend to use a more colorful descriptor myself!
Whether or not the temperature keeps rising a bit is not relevant to the warming proponents. The (roughly) 150 year warming follows 500 years of cooling. Also, one can’t ignore the 800+ (actual) peer-reviewed documents by some 400+ organizations representing some 40+ countries which show the MWP was warmer (and earlier warming durations during this intergalactic were even warmer than the MWP). There is not an iota of evidence showing a connection between CO2 and our warming and lots of evidence demonstrating that CO2 is not the cause.
http://docs.google.com/View?id=ddrj9jjs_0fsv8n9gw
That is what separates the Realists from the Chicken Little Brigade.
Due to corruption of temperature records we do not know if we even left the LIA or just experienced a minor warm spell.
judging by last few years it seems like both are true
each recent warm cycle cooler than the previous…and after only a few years of cooling we are breaking records from the depth of previous cold phases.
all our local glaciers are still here from the LIA – known locally as the mathis glaciation – so would it follow that we are still in the mathis glaciation?
and while the thames has yet to freeze over one might guess we are on the way
Peter:
Was that named after Johnny Mathis:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b9BKK27HuQ
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