http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25112.html
Britain and Europe have been hit hard for the third straight record-breaking winter season. Labeled by experts as the coldest winter in 100 years and set to blow well into 2011, it is already raising some very interesting questions about the new ideological split we are witnessing throughout society in the much celebrated green debate.
Tonight Britain braces itself for a further 10 inches of snow and more sub-zero temperatures to come- with no let-up, top forecasters have warned. These unusual Arctic conditions are set to last through the Christmas and New Year bank holidays and beyond and as temperatures plummeted to -10c (14f), prompting the UK’s Met Office to state that this December 2010 was ‘almost certain’ to become the coldest since records began in 1910.
So is it not safe to say that we are witnessing a real, tangible and physical trend here? Unlike the million dollar computer-generated climate model projections produced by the UN’s elite circle of research grantees and bursary
award-winning climate scientists, this new trend is actually a real one- one we can feel, touch, and most importantly… empirically measure.
Have we reached a tipping point in the ‘hottest’ year on the record?
Around 11 months earlier:
As the December days pass by it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Met or Hansen to proclaim in Jauary 2011 that 2010 was the ‘hottest’ year on the record. Even if it IS very few members of the public will pay the blindest bit of notice in the midst of a brutal winter.
And to compound things for Hansen, with a cold start to 2011 on the way, and with La Nina likely to occur all the way through 2011, a cooler 2011 will make “global warming” look even worse. Time is not on “global warming’s” side.
As I have said before, by declaring 2010 as the hottest year on the record it will become very difficult to declare another ‘hottest’ in the face of cooling temps.
There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics. ;>)
Mother Nature somehow got in the way of global warming!
Unlike the million dollar computer-generated climate model projections produced by the UN’s elite circle of research grantees and bursary
award-winning climate scientists, this new trend is actually a real one- one we can feel, touch, and most importantly… empirically measure.
I guess the little man in the parka outside with the thermometer is not dead yet
Even UAH shows 2010 as being particularly warm. Trying to pretend that 2010 is some kind of freezing cold year defies facts.
But as the first poster points out, the rubes on the street will buy it.
http://denialdepot.blogspot.com/2009/04/cold.html
It’s hot out there.
But it certainly is not as warm as 1998, so there is still no warming for 15 yrs, which is what Jones + Trenberth have said.
What’s the chance that there has been warming over the last 15 years? About 90%.
So color me unconvinced that the warming has stopped.
“But it certainly is not as warm as 1998”
Actually I believe 2010 is a statistical tie with 1998 in UAH.
Despite the 1998 El Nino being stronger than the 2010 el nino and 2010 being in a deep solar minimum….
So again I am unconvinced the world has stopped warming. What will be the nail in the coffin for you guys is when temperature in the next decade takes another jump upward and we look back and see all the nonsense about global cooling and warming-ending for what it was (nonsense).
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:00 pm
What’s the chance that there has been warming over the last 15 years? About 90%.
That is your wish only. You do not have data to prove.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Actually I believe 2010 is a statistical tie with 1998 in UAH.
Yes, that is what you want to believe. And If you had used the word “was” instead of “is” I would say you are right. But you did not use the word “was”.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:00 pm
when temperature in the next decade takes another jump upward
This is what you guys always do—everyone can see global warming isn’t happening, so you say “Ya, but just wait, you’re gonna get it some day!”
Like they say, “Wait till next year!”, hey Cthulhu?
Cthulu
“What’s the chance that there has been warming over the last 15 years? About 90%.”
Both Phil Jones and Kevin Trenberth have admitted there has been no warming for the last 15 yrs.
But perhaps they have now been bought out by Exxon.
“Actually I believe 2010 is a statistical tie with 1998 in UAH”
When temps are no higher than the highest, warming has stopped. No amount of alarmist logic can defy that.
only a real rube would believe that……….
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 5:55 pm
Trying to pretend that 2010 is some kind of freezing cold year defies facts.
What you say that people are saying defies facts because nobody ever said it. In fact, you are the first one to say it. You say there are people saying something they aren’t saying then say they are denying the facts by saying it.
But thanks. Thanks for doing that. Because what you did is give people a glimpse of how “manmade global warming” works. It’s manmade alright—and we see how “man”, like you, is making it.
hit hard for the third straight record-breaking winter season
So much for those who say we shouldn’t make anything out of just one winter.
2010 had record breaking weather….uh….climate change events…
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20101219/D9K734E81.html
“That is your wish only. You do not have data to prove.”
On the contrary. You even cited the source – Phil Jones.
Unfortunately you swallowed the denialist kool-aid that he claimed there had been no warming for 15 years. No he said that there had been warming at significance not quite at 95%.
And given that HadCRUT is underestimating the warming trend even that might be conservative
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:32 pm
On the contrary. You even cited the source – Phil Jones.
I cited Phil Jones? Huh, really? Where?
You meant I cited Richard Lindzen, didn’t you?
Phil Jones was citing Richard Lindzen when he talked about there being no statistically significant warming for 15 years (going on 16 now).
Is that what you meant?
The fact is that warming since 1995 is at about the 90% significance level. Therefore”there has been no statistical warming” doesn’t equate to there has been no warming.
It is so freaking hot out there!
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:46 pm
The fact is
More of your “facts”.
Cthulhu,
I am over 90% confident that we will hear much less from you in 2011. Give it up for goodness sake. AGW has failed in its predictions.
http://www.c3headlines.com/predictionsforecasts/
AGW is full of crap!
June 4, 1999
“Warm Winters Result From Greenhouse Effect, Columbia Scientists Find, Using NASA Model”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/1999/06/990604081638.htm
Nov. 17, 2010
“Global Warming Could Cool Down Northern Temperatures in Winter”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101117114028.htm
“This is what you guys always do—everyone can see global warming isn’t happening, so you say “Ya, but just wait, you’re gonna get it some day!””
On the contrary its deniers who keep appealing to warming stopping and turning out wrong. “ah but next decade it WILL have stopped!”
Sure. And pigs might fly. So far the warming has continued upward despite the claims of skeptics.
I remember 2008 when all the denialist rage was to claim the La Nina drop represented some kind of end to warming. Whoops then 2010 came along with record warm year.
I have no doubt in 15 years time you’ll be saying “warming stopped in the past 15 years” but you’ll be a little less believable because you got it wrong in the 2000s.
Record warm year!
Let’s put things in perspective by looking at the bigger picture. Let’s see how warm it really is right now:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9-B77WMFpxk
That video only shows part of greenland, not the world.
Just as well, as if it was that warm during the MWP globally compared to present (the video shows neither) that would imply a very high climate sensitivity.
Good luck trying to explain a very warm medieval warm period with low climate sensitivity. Apparently skeptics believe clouds will increase to reduce warming, but somehow that didn’t operate to prevent the MWP.
So you are say the Mann Hockey Stick graph is right?
Medieval Warm Period 4C warmer than now in Indonesia:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/04/20/another-indication-of-mwp-and-lia-being-global/
Medieval Warm Period in USA:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/17/medieval-warm-period-seen-in-western-usa-tree-ring-fire-scars/
Data from all over the world showing the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/04/jo-nova-finds-the-medieval-warm-period/
A 5,000 year alkenone-based temperature record from Lower Murray Lake reveals a distinct Medieval Warm Period in the Canadian High Arctic
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP43C..10D
Most strikingly, the alkenone record reveals warm lake water temperatures beginning ~800 AD and persisting until ~1200 AD, with temperatures up to 2-3 deg C warmer than the mean temperature for the past 100 years. This dramatic medieval warm period on Ellesmere Island interrupted a distinct (neoglacial) cooling trend that had begun approximately 2000 years earlier. Furthermore, the three warmest intervals seen in the alkenone record during the past 5,000 years correspond to the periods during which the area was occupied by Paleo-Eskimo groups,
more on worldwide data showing the earth was warmer during the Medieval Warm Period, not just in Greenland:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/29/the-medieval-warm-period-a-global-phenonmena-unprecedented-warming-or-unprecedented-data-manipulation/
data from Russia showing Medieval Warm Period warmer than now:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/07/russian-kola-data-refutes-the-mann-hockey-stick/
2 minute video about the Mann Hockey Stick graph and 900 other studies that would show it is wrong
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBQeqKQHlZc
“What you say that people are saying defies facts because nobody ever said it.”
It doesn’t have to be said. All the talk about the cold weather is a deliberate attempt to pretend that there’s something wrong with the idea of the warming earth, that it isn’t happening. As if scientists have got it wrong.
You know it’s dumb so you don’t directly say it. You imply it. You omit facts. You don’t want to admit that this year was particularly warm. Deniers go to great lengths to try and hide that inconvenient truth under the carpet.
If people knew 2010 was either the warmest or the 2nd warmest year on record (doesn’t matter a lot which) then they would realize the idea that the world is cooling or has stopped warming doesn’t make a lot of sense.
So all these attacks on GISTEMP and HadCRUT and pointing at snow and jumping up and down going “ooook!”, while ignoring the fact that UAH shows it has been especially hot this year, are just part of the pretense, the act.
HadCrut has 1998 much warmer than 2010
hadCRUT underestimates the warming
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:50 pm
hadCRUT underestimates the warming
Of course they do. They just do embellish the data enough for you, do they! Shucks!!!
Now if they would just pad the numbers the way GISS does then you’d like em!!
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 6:42 pm
It doesn’t have to be said.
Of course it doesn’t have to be said for you to say people are saying it.
Just like there doesn’t have to be warming for you to say warming is happening. Just like 2010 doesn’t have to be the warmest year ever for James Hansen to say it is.
warming is happening. It’s quite clear from the data
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979
Pathetic try. You started at 1979. You talk about 1995 then start your graph at 1979.
You are just full of propaganda aren’t you.
Thank you for revealing to readers your techniques. I like it a lot. You do yourself in.
Good Lord, I hate the internet when school’s out…………
“Pathetic try. You started at 1979. You talk about 1995 then start your graph at 1979.”
here we go from 1995 then
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1995
Again the warming is clear.
So you falsely tried to deny the warming by claiming it was to do with the start date. Why did you do that?
Why do deniers in general so complicit in such shenanigans?
The reason the world doesn’t take you seriously is because none of you are remotely competent enough and make glaring errors concerning the data. School kids could see the warming inherent in that data and yet I am supposed to believe you can’t see it?
What now? you going to complain the line is too red? Maybe if I draw it in a blue line it might not show warming?
Warming is clear? How??
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 7:25 pm
The reason the world doesn’t take you seriously
You haven’t been reading the polls. None of them are on your side. Is this another one of those things that isn’t really happening but you say it is anyway, just like there doesn’t have to be warming for you to say warming is warming. just like 2010 doesn’t have to be the warmest year ever for you to say it is?
I thought it was the big liberal cause a few years ago, that people were having to eat cat food because they couldn’t afford real food or their utility bills?
So let’s raise their utility bills some more, do everything we can to make food prices go up………freeze and starve them out
Kill them off, for the goodness of saving the planet……..
Cthulhu, narrow minded little scum like you make me sick
sorry i forgot to use the “reply” feature.
Go fuck yourself.
How sweet of you.
“Data from all over the world showing the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now”
If they did reconstructions would show that. They don’t. Even the skeptic approved reconstructions don’t show the MWP warmer than today.
What you are doing is pointing at individual proxy cases (here’s a MWP in indonesia! here’s one in china, here’s one in XYZ) without telling people that the MWP in each case occurs during a different time period.
So if you actually made a global reconstruction out of them all they wouldn’t all align and hence that’s why in actual global reconstructions the MWP is not warmer than present.
If you were to use proxies to measure current temperatures they wouldn’t show a clear picture either, they might even show us as being colder than we measure it… hide the decline.
Point to where it has been shown that the MWP wasn’t warmer than present without using carefully selected proxies. It’s always been a case of cherry picking the proxies that show what you want.
The closest I can get are these:-
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/qualitative.php
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/quantitative.php
Perhaps all the studies should be quantified this way.
Cthulhu,
I have a farm in Greenland that’s up for sale, left over from the Viking settlement. Are you interested?
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 7:35 pm
reconstructions don’t show the MWP warmer than today.
Since I’ve provided lots of data that shows the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than now but you continue to insist it wasn’t please provide your evidence it was cooler than now.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 7:35 pm
Even the skeptic approved reconstructions don’t show the MWP warmer than today.
You’re a true global warming believer. You’re making stuff up.
“Kill them off, for the goodness of saving the planet……..
Cthulhu, narrow minded little scum like you make me sick”
Go fuck yourself noob
Nope, I would rather do everything in my power to stop kids like you.
With any luck, you will have to grow up and live like several families I know right now. Families that we are trying to help because they can not afford food and can not afford their heating bills.
Until that happens, you will continue to trip through life having no clue……
Your logic is impeccable. I am pointing out what the scientific data shows so therefore I must want to “save the planet” and of course I simply must be a “liberal”.
You ignore that HadCRUT and RSS show 2010 much cooler than 1998.
Ah, the mature, dispassionate voice of science. At the CRU are you?
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 7:38 pm
“Kill them off, for the goodness of saving the planet……..
Cthulhu, narrow minded little scum like you make me sick”
Go fuck yourself noob
………………………………………………………………………………………………………
I see no one is telling you to do that. But there is no need to tell you to do it. By reading your comments I see you are already doing it to yourself.
“Ah, the mature, dispassionate voice of science. At the CRU are you?”
This isn’t the science part of the world. This is a blog. Don’t let the title at the top confuse you. If I made a blog called Real Medicine it wouldn’t mean I was contributing to the medical community.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 8:08 pm
This isn’t the science part of the world. This is a blog. Don’t let the title at the top confuse you.
You must be referring to the propaganda web site RealClimate.
“You ignore that HadCRUT and RSS show 2010 much cooler than 1998.”
Yes but we can’t trust any of those liberal alarmist records can we.
We should stick to UAH. Which shows 2010 so far is warmer than 1998.
By February, UAH will be below the 30 year mean.
Like it was in June 2009, Jan-August 2008, December 2007, May 2006, Jun-August 2004, June 2003, January and May 2001, most of the months in 2000, 9 of the months in 1999, and so on.
Ie utterly unremarkable.
Oh and 2010 will still be the warmest year on record.
24 month mean is interesting too
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/mean:24
Hansen determined that 2010 would be the warmest on record many months ago.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 8:41 pm
24 month mean is interesting too
You’re just cherry picking. You’re desperately struggling to keep global warming’s head above water. You’re going to get tired.
Cthulhu says:
December 19, 2010 at 8:41 pm
Oh and 2010 will still be the warmest year on record.
Predicting the future. Rather, it’s called propaganda.
Maybe James Hansen and Gavin Schmidt can create the warmest year ever. But other data sets will show it is not.
Also, it is telling when a commenter chooses to only rely on GISS. The fix is in.
Its a conspiracy of the SSSSS (Super-Secret Society of Subverted Scientists)! We need to act now to save mankind from this evil UN-sponsored plot.
You outed yourself…….
“the rubes on the street will buy it”
God I must be bored today……….. LOL
“You outed yourself…….”
Oh I am a homosexual too am I now? Thanks for letting me know.
Childish.
LOL Finally someone to say funny stuff without realizing it’s funny, since all the others gave up on it!
What is wrong with being a homosexual?
You got him tangled up in that one.
Andy Weiss:
Nothing unless the person is a Homophobe and really thin skinned! That sorta describes holyer than tho Liberals!
What’s all this about 1998?
It was an outlier year because of a huge El Nino. So here we are today, where the temperatures are very close or better than that outlier year without a sun maximum and without an outlier El Nino!
This is a huge global temperature rise since 1998!
Anyone taking bets as to the world temperature during the next solar maximum WITH an outlier El Nino? Asbestos shorts anyone?
It was just a run of the mill average year and not statistically significant from any other year in the 20th century. When measurement and processing errors are taken into account there is only regional natural weather variations to be seen in the weather records of the 20th century.
The next Solar Maximum may actually be a minor Solar Maximum such as the Dalton or Mauder Minimums experienced. Now that most of the excess heat has drained from the global weather systems it will continue to cool as has been observed by colder than normal winters that display the opposite trend that AGW would exhibit. With Ocean Atmosphere circulation patterns transitioning into their negative modes we should enjoy at minimum another 25 to 30 years of cooling weather for your entertainment pleasure. Water sports might be a bit chilly in the near future!
I would think the asbestos shorts will only be needed for those who want to stand by the needed fire to keep warm! 🙂
Enjoy your fantasy while it lasts! Cognitive Dissonance is a bitch which it hits home that you were mislead all that time!
The problem will not be that some one pulled one over on you but that you actually fell for it! HLS!!