I live in the South but the temperatures today are 10 f over what was predicted. We will probably break 50f today but by Sunday it will nit get much above freezing according to NWS. I leave the independent sites alone because their overall accuracy is about equal to what the National Weather service puts out. There was a bit of snow Wednesday and yesterday!
There was some idiot from the Met Office on telly last night blithering on about how we can still expect “clusters of cold winters” even with global warming.
Yet when we had a few mild winters it was proof of global warming.
GS – the mantra is whatever they want it to be, whenever they want it to be based on how they feel at any given time or for any situation. Makes it easy to be right all the time and explains the elitism.
Green Sand:
A couple of years ago at Surrealclimate The Gav “Super modeler extraordinaire” brought this situation up as being consistent with model projections, or whatever the current agreement is that models actually regurgitate from the Garbage they are fed!
The article to which you linked would be interesting to discuss. What I liked about the article is that it is discussing specific, verifiable mechanisms that affect regional weather in measurable ways. The idea that heat in one region could cause another region to cool is not insane and has happened in the past. For example, if regional heating caused the gulf stream to weaken, Europe would get colder in the winter.
Anyway, it would be interesting to discuss the specifics of where the article is right or wrong.
You will be relieved we are not entering ” Day after tomorrow ” territory, as the report spells out.
The interesting thing is that the report identifies ocean circulation as causing severe winters in the 40’s + 60’s. We keep being told of course that the mild winters we have had recently are due to global warming, when clearly ocean currents have been the cause.
“The Gulf Stream relies on the fact that as the water loses its heat in the north Atlantic, it cools, sinks and flows back to the south. The fear has been that, as the planet warms, melting Arctic ice will weaken these currents, plunging Europe into the cooler.
On this count, however, there is good news. According to Prof Mark Maslin, of University College London, there seems – at present – “to be no evidence of changes in the Atlantic circulation which could account for the last two harsh winters”. There are, he says, shorter-term patterns in ocean circulation which have a major effect, and have been linked to the severe winters in the 1940s and 1960s. But again, that is probably not the case today. “
The Klimate Kranks can backfill a justification for anything. Actually anyone can.. If the Klimate Kranks’ AGW produces random results, which are essentially no different than the weather we’ve always experienced, how can they continue to pound their dire precictions of catastropy?
It’s time to take a step back and look at the situation without the Klimate Kranks’ impressions clouding judgement. The climate is essentially unchanged from what we’ve been experiencing since people have been keeping track of it.
Dr. Mark Maslin says there is a link between snow and Climate Change.
He’s right. There is link between Climate Change and snow.
It’s cognitive dissonance and both Dr. Mark Maslin and Roger Highfield are suffering from it.
What intrigues me is the structure of the article.
It starts by asking “Are we freezing because of global warming?” then goes on to describe in detail a mechanism that the author is fully aware is not the cause of why we are freezing. Is this just an opportunity to get some big numbers in and also raise the alarm level with the statement “temperatures could drop by up to 10C within decades.”?
Then we have another dismissal this time without any elaboration “There are, he says, shorter-term patterns in ocean circulation which have a major effect, and have been linked to the severe winters in the 1940s and 1960s. But again, that is probably not the case today.” Why is it not the case today?
No explanation, just “that is probably not the case today”. In other words, don’t tell me it has happened before, 40’s and 60s were different but I am not telling you why.
Then finally, apart from an interlude on how the UK gets its snow we get to the nub of the article along with a quote.
“we still need to explain why the Arctic high pressure has strayed so far south. And here, says Prof Maslin, is the more likely, and more subtle, link with climate change. “For me,” he says, “this shows that the climate is becoming more dynamic, and thus large shifts in the wind patterns are possible – in this case, sub-tropical air being trapped further south than usual.”
“more likely, and more subtle”
What is usual? Where’s the proof that these blocking highs are unusual, Bastardi, Corbyn and the like appear to know enough about them to predict their arrival and duration.
Maybe I am just getting more cynical in my advancing years. Especially as the UK is getting colder and I don’t just mean in winter.
Next summer, remember to cool your house with the furnace.
LOL.
Norway’s coldest November in living memory
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/03/norways-coldest-november-in-living-memory/
And it isn’t regional. Check out what is going in the American south:
http://www.ajc.com/news/cobb/hundreds-line-up-in-763455.html
I live in the South but the temperatures today are 10 f over what was predicted. We will probably break 50f today but by Sunday it will nit get much above freezing according to NWS. I leave the independent sites alone because their overall accuracy is about equal to what the National Weather service puts out. There was a bit of snow Wednesday and yesterday!
There was some idiot from the Met Office on telly last night blithering on about how we can still expect “clusters of cold winters” even with global warming.
Yet when we had a few mild winters it was proof of global warming.
lol, maybe this is what’s going on. It’s so hot its cold!
It’s reminiscent of the line in the old Gold Rush song, “Oh, Susannah”: “the sun’s so hot I froze to death”.
Anybody know where this little throwaway came from?
“and it has long been accepted that one of the effects of climate change could be an increase in the frequency of harsher, Continental-style winters.”
I don’t remember that as part of the mantra.
“long been accepted” by who? when? which model predicted it? No, it wasn’t Claudia Schiffer was it?
GS – the mantra is whatever they want it to be, whenever they want it to be based on how they feel at any given time or for any situation. Makes it easy to be right all the time and explains the elitism.
Green Sand:
A couple of years ago at Surrealclimate The Gav “Super modeler extraordinaire” brought this situation up as being consistent with model projections, or whatever the current agreement is that models actually regurgitate from the Garbage they are fed!
Ah! Now that would explain it! Thanks.
By Gav, I take it you mean “Gavin, International Man of Mystery”
http://climateaudit.org/2010/12/02/odonnell-et-al-2010-refutes-steig-et-al-2009/
Green Sand:
The one and only! Big Jim’s protege.
The article to which you linked would be interesting to discuss. What I liked about the article is that it is discussing specific, verifiable mechanisms that affect regional weather in measurable ways. The idea that heat in one region could cause another region to cool is not insane and has happened in the past. For example, if regional heating caused the gulf stream to weaken, Europe would get colder in the winter.
Anyway, it would be interesting to discuss the specifics of where the article is right or wrong.
Hi Steve
You will be relieved we are not entering ” Day after tomorrow ” territory, as the report spells out.
The interesting thing is that the report identifies ocean circulation as causing severe winters in the 40’s + 60’s. We keep being told of course that the mild winters we have had recently are due to global warming, when clearly ocean currents have been the cause.
“The Gulf Stream relies on the fact that as the water loses its heat in the north Atlantic, it cools, sinks and flows back to the south. The fear has been that, as the planet warms, melting Arctic ice will weaken these currents, plunging Europe into the cooler.
On this count, however, there is good news. According to Prof Mark Maslin, of University College London, there seems – at present – “to be no evidence of changes in the Atlantic circulation which could account for the last two harsh winters”. There are, he says, shorter-term patterns in ocean circulation which have a major effect, and have been linked to the severe winters in the 1940s and 1960s. But again, that is probably not the case today. “
Heads they win tales you lose.
The Klimate Kranks can backfill a justification for anything. Actually anyone can.. If the Klimate Kranks’ AGW produces random results, which are essentially no different than the weather we’ve always experienced, how can they continue to pound their dire precictions of catastropy?
It’s time to take a step back and look at the situation without the Klimate Kranks’ impressions clouding judgement. The climate is essentially unchanged from what we’ve been experiencing since people have been keeping track of it.
Dr. Roy Spencer’s numbers are out.
Nov. 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.38 deg. C
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2010/12/nov-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-38-deg-c/
Dr. Mark Maslin says there is a link between snow and Climate Change.
He’s right. There is link between Climate Change and snow.
It’s cognitive dissonance and both Dr. Mark Maslin and Roger Highfield are suffering from it.
I have one single advice: Get a treatment.
Heavy snowfall cover the Russian Far East.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-12/03/c_13634065.htm
What intrigues me is the structure of the article.
It starts by asking “Are we freezing because of global warming?” then goes on to describe in detail a mechanism that the author is fully aware is not the cause of why we are freezing. Is this just an opportunity to get some big numbers in and also raise the alarm level with the statement “temperatures could drop by up to 10C within decades.”?
Then we have another dismissal this time without any elaboration “There are, he says, shorter-term patterns in ocean circulation which have a major effect, and have been linked to the severe winters in the 1940s and 1960s. But again, that is probably not the case today.” Why is it not the case today?
No explanation, just “that is probably not the case today”. In other words, don’t tell me it has happened before, 40’s and 60s were different but I am not telling you why.
Then finally, apart from an interlude on how the UK gets its snow we get to the nub of the article along with a quote.
“we still need to explain why the Arctic high pressure has strayed so far south. And here, says Prof Maslin, is the more likely, and more subtle, link with climate change. “For me,” he says, “this shows that the climate is becoming more dynamic, and thus large shifts in the wind patterns are possible – in this case, sub-tropical air being trapped further south than usual.”
“more likely, and more subtle”
What is usual? Where’s the proof that these blocking highs are unusual, Bastardi, Corbyn and the like appear to know enough about them to predict their arrival and duration.
Maybe I am just getting more cynical in my advancing years. Especially as the UK is getting colder and I don’t just mean in winter.
MET said mild winter, here is a hint, try again in 2030!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1335216/UK-snow-Overnight-temperatures-fall-20C-Britain-left-sheet-ice.html
In Germany where I’m living, there is a harsh winter. It has arrived one month before the usual time.
Maldives is crapping on about the same stuff again, so why are they planning to build a massive new international airport right on the water?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11912566