Now that GISS and The Met Office have indelibly soiled themselves and their profession (the oldest profession) there seem to be only two main players in the game.
My understanding is that Joe is forecasting milder European weather after Christmas, and Piers isn’t. What are your thoughts?
What are your thoughts?
I like this kind of party!
I’ll have a bob each way.
I thought they both predicted milder between xmas and new year, but it’s early in the new year where they differ.
The way I see it so far, the louder the alarmists have been, the more they have lied, the harder mommy nature has been smashing them. So I’ll go with Piers.
I thought it was going to be milder too after Xmas in England so I am with Joe on this one.
About 3 or 4 winters back it was almost warm enough to eat Christmas dinner outside, now we are in a run of colder winters before the mild ones take over again.
Andy
I’m going with Piers.
The oldest profession is agriculture, as hunting and gathering were not systematized in the same way.
I want to see Joe Romm hyperventilate and begin spitting when he becomes excited. That will happen when Piers has correctly assessed the consistency of the variation of the PDO.
S0 I expect Piers to prevail, only for the entertainment value of watching Romm
Hmm, I think Steve was referring to Joe Bastardi, the other phenomenal weather forecaster.
Romm hyperventilates regardless of what’s really happening. Its the voices in his head that make him so mad.
Tell me that carbon dioxide in the air hasn’t had effect!
If NIH correlated CO2 in the air with paranoid schizophrenia they would have areal case for cap and trade
I’m going with Joe for a warm up as the AO moves into positive territory.
OT
EPA to double down on climate
http://tinyurl.com/2av7wyk
Makes sense. CA can’t be left alone to their own demise, Obama must bring the rest of the country down with them. After all, it’s only fair.
That isn’t fair. The rest of the country can’t suffer the delusions of bong heads, surfers, posers, and gang bangers. That’s victimizing the innocent
The only positive outcome may be that the newly elected House of Representatives will defund the EPA to stop the madness. It is very troubling how Congress has turned over so much power to unelected bureaucrats.
P.S. My other reason for thinking there will be a warm up (at least temporary) is the SOI went neutral in June after being negative in May. If the SOI has any correlation (some say it does) to global temperature, sometime early 2011 we should see temps drop again. As it is now, in my humble view, there may not be a large drop in 2011 but more of a general cooling throughout the year. Remember though, La Nina is a recharging of the oceans so the deeper it is, the more heat is absorbed in preparation for the next El Nino to release yet more heat.
Also, if NOAA’s latest forecasts are correct, La Nina has stalled and flattened. Earlier versions had it dropping below 2.5 after January, but based on satellite data in recent weeks, IMO there may not be a big crash in the LT as many have expected, including me. This may be due to the Modoki El Nino producing higher SST in the KOE as described here http://tinyurl.com/2av7wyk
Hi slimething
This from the Oz BoM site.
Due to lag times, any warming that might be expected from the next El Nino may not eventuate at least until the end of next year.
The -4DegC Ts below the ocean surface is telling. It’s going to take a lot of sunshine to warm that up.
There is every chance the next phase may be neutral to a weak El Nino followed by another strong la Nina
I take Joe, but probably because I’m really hoping for a warm turn so we can hear all of the alarmists stutter and say they didn’t mean warming was causing cold and that we misunderstood.
Joe Bastardi has been right about the warm attack which is taking place right now.
Warm air from Africa is transported into Europe pushing the cold to the North.
We now have temperatures above freezing during the day time and frost at night.
These are the worst conditions for traffic because the freezing rains cause havoc on the roads, rail and airports.
After this temporary mess up the cold will return.
In regard to the total picture of this winter I don’t think there is much difference between the forecasts from Joe Bastardi, Piers Corbyn of Joseph D’Aleo.
This winter just started.
Brian Predicts:
Same New York/London/Paris agony to continue right through March.
Basis: Very strong high altitude jet stream stalling produced heat wave over Northern latitudes over the Northern summer months. This continues to be replaced by Arctic air now, and will continue until barometric pressure differences between Equator and Poles has stabilized to normal ranges.
Not accepting wagering, as I am an employee of the Federal government
Piers is outnumbered since there’re two Joes and one benchpresses 400lb. Joe D’Aleo has been saying pretty much the same as Joe B and Piers for a fair while.
Temperatures for the Netherlands this week: Tells the entire story
Thu Fri SA SU MO
-4 | 2 -3 | -2 -7 | -2 -8 | -5 -11 | -7
The Alps has a short “Heat Wave” with 12.5 degrees Celsius at Interlaken Airport and
6.7 degrees Celsius in Munich melting away approx. half of the snow cover but temperatures are already started to plunge again.
What about that 200 km channel race?
The new European weather model run would seem to indicate very cold temperatures with bouts of snow in places in the UK for at least the next 4-5 days. After that, temperatures should moderate some, with rain/snow in places. But tempx should still stay below normal as there is little imput from the North Atlantic. The low level flow is still depicted coming off continental Europe even after 10 days. There is no sign of truly mild weather.
The European model is also showing a very severe blizzard for many US east coast cities on Boxing Day. The US/Canadian models are not nearly as aggressive as the European model. But it’s something to watch.
I think long range weather prediction is like a seance, sometimes the medium guesses right, mostly they’re wrong but if they make it vague enough people will go away with an impression that it really is possible to contact the other side. I don’t believe in ghosts… either.
I can understand the methods Joe D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi use, so I favour it over the Met Office. I’ve no idea what Pierce Corbyn does but I’m not fully sold on his techniques.
Overall I think that seasonal predictions are little more than educated guesses.
So my guess is – UK cold weather is dependant on the fickle jetstream but this year it seems to have locked into unusual (since satellite monitoring) positions for quite long periods of time. In addition, a lot of cold has been accumulated across a wide stretch of land in the northern hemisphere (except Canada and Greenland which are cold by default) and the oceans are continuing to cool slightly. So, I think there will be a few warmer ripples but it will continue cold. If recent history continues then spring will be sudden, warm and early.
History also indicates that whatever you expect with the weather, you’ll be wrong.
Joe B. and Joe D’O seem to use current observations coupled with historical records.
Piers seems to use historical records in conjunction with solar observations.
That is my understanding as well (Piers also inputs lunar stuff too).
Weather predictions are different from forecasts?
Sunny with cloudy periods tomorrow, high -2 and low -7 is a forecast.
This winter will have generally colder conditions with more precipitation is a prediction.
Jus’ sayin’.
You have a point about the historical record and the ocean set-ups that the Joe’s use. That seems to be their base and they make modifications from what is expected from the ocean set-ups to account for volcanic and solar effect. Piers seems to put the emphais on solar/celestial first and modify that baseline from oceanic and volacanic factors. What I find interesting is that the arctic oscillation seems to yeild high polar pressures when you have period of very low sunspot activity followed by a period of high sunspot activity. This happened twice last winter and then again in the summer setting up strong blocking patterns reaking havoc with the weather. We have just entered a period of spotless days and very low solar wind. When the sunspots return, particularly if we have a period of high activity for several days or weeks, the solar wind will fluff up the atmosphere at the poles and we’ll be in for some wild weather as arctic high pressure is re-established and blocking highs make the high lattitude portion of the jet stream get stuck in odd flow patterns.
I bet £750 on Piers.
I’ll go with Bastardi – though hoping for a long brutal winter to shut these alarmists up for a while.
I will go with corybn I think he might be on to something it may just be coincidence but you never know.
I really don’t pay any attention to any of them, you can’t predict the weather or climate.
It is what it is………
Baa Humbug, thanks.
There may be a strong La Nina as reported, but there is something definitely different between this ENSO, 97/98 and even 06/07.
By now both LT and SAT should have plummeted. Being a Modoki El Nino I suppose it is possible the oceans are still releasing enormous amounts of heat, but one would think the SST (satellite) would have dropped accordingly. Instead, SST is rising. The general pattern is SST drops, LT rises (spikes), then drops quickly. December is oddest of all. I keep looking for that ‘crash’ to begin, but it just doesn’t happen. Maybe they will in the coming months, but the numbers aren’t adding up, to me anyway.
Also, although the 300m equatorial OHC saw a historic drop earlier in the year, it has remained somewhat static for the last several months with the three regions more out of sync.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
Whatever is going on, there is little resemblance to what is typically seen in the satellite data when comparing to previous ENSO periods. The Arctic remains quite warm comparatively, yet much of the NH is experiencing cold (see AO). IMO, either we are witnessing the beginnings of a regime change to a longer period cold state or the AGW promoters are going to have a field day in 2011 (whether justified or not) when SAT and LT don’t drop globally as normally is the case.
My conclusion? Just when I thought I had the slightest understanding how these patterns work, the whole thing comes crashing down leaving me in total bewilderment. I give up.
Joe uses analogs as part of his long-range forecasting. One of the analogs was for a year where an El Nino went away, a La Nina developed, and there was an active hurricane season. For that year, December was brutal, then it grew milder in January and February followed by a cold and wet late winter and spring. Milder may be a relative term, it is very unlikely that the intensity of this December would continue for the whole winter, but maybe January and February might be close to average or a bit above average (except in TX and the Southeast where it may be very warm). For purely selfish reasons, I hope the severe winter continues in North America and Europe so the AGW alarmists can continue to be embarrassed as they will proclaim that brutal winters were expected and had been predicted by the climate models.
A bit o/t, but Steve, if you can compile an extensive list of global warming predictions since 1988 that turned out to be incorrect (i.e. Hansen’s New York’s West Side Highway will be underwater by 2008, UK-Met’s proclamation that snow will be a thing of the past, etc.), it will give us great ammunition in our debates with “believers” and maybe even the MSM would start to take notice.
Both are going to be correct.
Joe tends to confuse the UK and Scandinavia as Europe, and that part of Europe will get warmer. Meanwhile central and southern Europe which Joe seems to ignore, will get colder.
Check it out here!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
Joe has to learn that Europe is much more than the UK and Scandinavia.
Isn’t there an octopus who does this sort of thing? Oh, hang on he’s dead now. Gotta be caused by global warming surely?
Can I hedge my bet and take an average of the two with a 10% bias to Piers?
All Met Office info is generated to please the Government, Huhne in particular. Joe will be proved right come hell or high water. Just tell me why the properties of the Sun play no part in his calculations.
I have tremendous respect for both of them. It is my position that they are both looking at the same factors but from different perspectives. So it is a tough call when they actually manage to disagree on something.
I think on balance, I will go with Piers. Sun Rules, OK?
I have tremendous respect for both of them.
Me too. That’s why I make my own predictions, to put all success or failure of predictions that I comment on – on me!