Nice theory, except that Wyoming winters haven’t warmed. Even after adjustments.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/wy.html
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Well of course they have warmed, Logan remembers them being a lot colder when he was a child…………………..
Heh – i get a .12 degree increase per decade on my plot
However, both mine and yours are meaningless since neither measures the temperature of the specific habitat range occupied by the mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae. That’s always been the problem here – trying to use inappropriate data in ways never intended nor scientifically logical or correct and expecting to draw appropriate conclusions.
Temperate climactic regions ALWAYS have large population cycles of most dominant species because they are NOT stable nor stabilized – they are characterized by massive annual/periodic environmental and biotic perturbation and much higher dominance-diversity ratios that just preclude stability.
ps – you could add a link to Romm’s “conclusion” – i could use a laugh.
search for climate progress. I don’t like to link to his site
ah, k, i can understand that
in future then perhaps you could mention that you saw [comment] at [insert spot rather than a link] for those of us who don’t follow [Romm’s /persons of interest] posting locales.
I often find that I do not understand where your source info is coming from or what your point is in that regard without a frame of reference. Have pity for us mere mortals, please, LOL
I always post links – except for Romm
Pity he just ignores your posts.. I’d love to see what explanation he might come up with, just for amusement. I can imagine him having a “connect the dots” kids book.. none of the puzzles would have a line on it because he can’t work out how to do it.
For those interested in the details of this story:
http://www.npr.org/2010/12/26/126107761/small-beetles-massacre-the-rockies-whitebark-pines
From what I can can tell, the link to purported warming is just another WAG since human tree habitat perturbation via logging, habitat destruction, fire suppression, etc are also possible explanations for the current outbreak. Whitebark pines are just ‘innocent bystanders’ to the real story with lodgepole pine in the area. And, as usual, the story is much more complicated than the reporting, heh.
explanation of insect/temperate species population cycles:
http://www.sandyliebhold.com/pubs/rpe_intro.pdf
http://www.fjellrev-finnmark.uit.no/artikler/ims2008.tree.pdf
But Steve, did you know that global warming was responsible for the extinction of the Great Auk (in 1852)?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/uk/indepth/climate-change.shtml
“Natural England’s Lost Life report focuses on England’s lost and threatened species and points to climate change as a major factor.
“…
“Some species that have been lost from England, such as the great auk and Ivell’s sea anemone, are now globally extinct.”
(And yes, it does imply that, whether through actual dishonesty or just sloppy journalism.)
Since 1998, there has been a sharp trend toward colder. Not exactly the hockey stick they promised.
Why have you shown a graph from 1930 and not from the start of recording 1895?
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
And why have you omitted the trend line?
http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl
It wouldn’t have anything to do with the fact that it actually shows a warming trend would it?
It is great watching the ridiculous comments coming back. Why do we care if Wyoming warmed prior to 1930? What in Sam Hill does that have to do with CO2?
The article does not stipulate a start date of 1930 so what is your criteria for selecting it?
And more importantly why have you not included the trend line that DOES show there has been a warming trend in winter for Wyoming? That is a warming trend from both 1930 and the whole data set.
Why do you care what happened in Montana prior to 1930?
Steve chose it because beetles do notlive past 80 years of age. Boy I could be a climate scientist — I amgood at making s*it up.
So why not show the trend line, which he seems to be suggesting isn’t positive?
Lazarus says: “And more importantly why have you not included the trend line that DOES show there has been a warming trend”
Lazarus, did your eyes not come back from the dead with the rest of you? Above the plot, it says “Trend=0.12degF/Decade”
Steve didn’t blank that out, did he?
Grasping at straws, aren’t we!
Even worse, why should we care what happens at 3500 – 6500 ft above sea level where most of the stations are when the article is concerned about Whitebark pine above 8500 ft ?
Do YOU know how many Wyoming weather stations are above 8,500 ft ?
I could NOT find any lol. Of what use are temp trend lines when you are measuring potential temperature impact on species that doesn’t live in those places?
I can see Wyoming from my window.
I live in town in Montana and can’t see Wyoming from my window but that does not stop me from seeing huge piles of buffalo-crap dropped on Jellystone Park lol.
Google “White Pine Blister Rust” for instance.
If you take the peaks and call the interval weather noise then you have about 47 years between 1934 and 1981. Without a few more cycles of temperature observations it appears to be random weather patterns with no real trend. Extending back in time would only show natural variability and has nothing to do with human induced climate change.
It does not matter what specifically happened in Wyoming, or whether the temperatures were taken at 3,000 or 8,000 feet. If the beetles do well somewhere else they can form huge “clouds” that can be transported by wind for long distances. When this cloud lands on a far away forest, even if conditions there are unfavorable, they can still do lots of damage.
As well, it is not the average temperature that matters, but the extremes. Bark beetles do just fine in negative temperatures, it is part of their life cycle. It is a sustained very cold (-40 or so?) temperature for many days that causes most mortality. If GW, or some other phenomenon, or mere chance, makes for a winter, or better yet multiple winters, without this cold snap, then the beetles respond. Theoretically the beetles could even do well in colder than average winters provided there were realtively few extreme cold days.