That is exactly what happened. Winter temperatures have plummeted during the last decade. In the US, they have gone down at a rate of 41 degrees per century.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/na.html
Winter temperatures in Russia and Alaska have dropped by as much as 7C over the past decade.
Three of the four snowiest winters have occurred during the past four years.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1
In North America, 2010 was the snowiest winter on record.
http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=namgnld&ui_season=1
Spring snowpack in the US is the highest on record.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html
This is what I like to see … a real application of the scientific method – making predictions based on the evidence, rather than having a pre-conceived notion of what the outcome is.
Its funny. Tree rings used to give good data up until……approximately the late 1980s. Then they went crazy or something. All their sensitivity went away. Little ice ages and warming periods could no longer be detected. In fact they were no longer a good proxy for temperature at all…..that is until someone figured out that if you spliced another data set onto the end, it showed exactly what the authors knew it should have showed all along.
Tree rings only accidentally correlated as there are too many variables that influence rings—water, temperature, CO2, nutrients, shade, competition, bugs, and disease. Many tree ring researchers have admitted that it is risky to latch on to only one parameter.
Amazing. Dead on. I wonder what happened to these two.
This am the LSM was all about the terrible weather we’re having “worse than ever” and now the hurricane season has begun and how bad it’s going to be GEEZ it’s like they want this stuff to happen
The only news that sells is BAD news …
– cheers.
That and with the communication system in this modern day. We hear about these bad events all the time all the time, and some times in real time, wherever it may happen. If you haven’t noticed Steves news paper clips of these bad events he posts here constantly, that still happened but wasn’t news around the world at that time, like it is today. They say shit happens but when it is twisted it’s bullshit, that and never let a good crisis go to waste where you can get the same bullshit.
I see this is getting some coverage. Good.
Maybe now someone will re-do the work correctly, without political agenda.
As far as I am concerned Dr. Libby was to Michael Mann as Dr. Einstein was to Bill Nye the Science guy.
Thank you Steven.
Steve, I made a post graphing the last twenty years of Snow extent for Fall, Winter, and Spring, and then the entirety using GSL. You’re more than welcome to use the graphics or any part of it.
The last 20 years monthly year-round NH snow extent graph with trend, http://suyts.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/image5.png
Nice! .. thanks for that!
Jim,
You are just giving your stamp of approval to peer reviewed studies that indicate that warmcold can cause lessmore snow. All totally consistent with a disrupted jet stream and a warming planet. Unless we immediately reduce CO2 emissions to zero, we are all doomed!
Andy,
I am holding my breath. Its true. My “denier’ credentials are shred.
Steve, the trend is for the contiguous U.S., but it looks like it’d even be more negative if it included Alaska and Hawaii. Is there a way to include them?
-Scott
I noticed two things:
The Northern Hemisphere Winter Season is November through April; not December through January. The image below is the annual trend.
The anomaly map was smoothed to 250km which gives a misleading view of the increased pulse of warmth in the arctic. When properly adjusted there is a .15C increase instead of a -.03C decline.
Here is the map adjusted for true winter season:
Ahh, that is why it is labeled by NOAA as winter.
Two bloopers, sorry:
I said winter season when I meant to have said annual
I also forgot to insert the link above. Here it is,
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&month_last=04&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=0112&year1=2000&year2=2010&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
That is so weird. I thought winter was when it got cold.
I thought the link to http://joannenova.com.au/ was in reference to an annual trend.
Also the newspaper clip from the Los Angeles Times predicted a severe drop in general temperatures in 2000. I neither see any ‘severe’ temperature drop indicated (-.03C?)nor is there even a specification for winter season in that particular article.
What’s more, they were not talking about a trend from 2001-2011. They were talking about a temperature drop off compared to the 1980s. That would require an Anomaly map not a Trend map.
As Dr. Roy Spencer’s UAH chart indicates, there has absolutely not been any temperature drop off, severe or otherwise, from 2000 onward compared to the 1980s. Quite the contrary, there was a sustained increase starting in 1995 for La Ninas and in 1998 for El Ninos which are higher than anything before those dates.
PS: you were using a Dec-Jan season which is artefactual in defining the cold season in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the image generator for GISS, Northern Hemisphere Cold Season is Nov thru April.
Not that it’s relevant because we’re talking about ANOMALIES NOT TRENDS but this is what you get for 2001-2011; NH Cold Season; 1200 km radius smoothing:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2011&month_last=04&sat=4&sst=1&type=trends&mean_gen=1106&year1=2001&year2=2011&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
lol……when properly adjusted? You mean extrapolating out temperatures where no thermometers exist? That can only be deemed proper by the world’s most ardent warmistas.
Suyts; although GISS is land based; satellite based readings do indicate a definitive increase in Arctic and Siberian temperatures.
Yes, that true, so let’s base that on actual measurements instead of inventing them. It isn’t proper math, and the the extrapolated temps aren’t accurate. Also, while satellite data suggests greater increases in the arctic and Siberian areas, they’re coverage at those latitudes are poor.
I have to be AFK for a bit, but I’ll be back if you want to continue the conversation.
Steve, my post in response to yours has been in moderation for a while. It’s a rather long one.
what? No response to mine? tsk
Steve,
I have a copy from the original article from the Times in something they called “The Student Outlook” that was circulated around school science classes in the LA area at the time. I was 15 at the time but already a weather nut & found this article interesting enough to stuff away & hang on to for all these years. It includes a graph of 20 year average global temps. Lots of interesting comments can be made from it :
1) Note that in 1979, temps were still trending down & they had the right forecast that they would start rising from that point thru to about 2005. At that time, everyone else was talking about the next ice age. They may have been the only ones at that point making a forecast that flew against what everyone else was saying.
2) This article pre-dates the politicization of the science – I think it is fair to characterize this as purely a data driven hypothesis.
3) The graph shows temps rolling over around 2005, then falling sharply around 2018+/-. So far it is a very good match, although the magnitude is ride from 1979 to 2005 was somewhat higher than forecast. It is a way better fit than any alarmist forecast over the same time period.
4) Their forecast is based on cyclicity seen in carbon isoptope data from tree rings (!!) Hmmm…. I guess Mann et al missed that.
5) They hypothesize the cyclicity is solar driven. Very interesting especially since over the last few weeks we have seen multiple articles with solar scientists suggesting we are heading into a deep solar minimum over the next several decades, which based on their solar hypothesis would drive down temps over the next several decades, just as forecast !!
Steve, I have had this article buried away for years & just stumbled upon it today, going through some old papers in the basement. I found your post (of just 3 weeks ago) by googling the authors & 1979 ! I was considering creating a similar blog post & see if Anthony would like to post at WUWT before I found this.
Contact me via email (maybe copy Anthony too) if you would like to collaborate on a post – which would involve a bit more analysis & expansion of the points above. I think it could be a really powerful post.
Last Bilderberg session, one item on the agenda Global Cooling… Did the Bigwigs know it all along? Libby and Pandolfi are in sync with Landscheidt. One secret science for the elite, and one political faux science for the masses. If we still had investigative journalists instead of spoon fed parrots we might find out.
Thats a fascinating, not to say uncannily accurate prediction.
But, its very dangerous to look back and find predictions that match what we know happened.
Its an interesting bit of data to add to the debate. But readers need to be aware that you cannot retrospectively and selectively look for predictions that match what subsequently happened. Science can’t work that way. We’re back to politics and belief if we let methodology be polluted like that.
Yes, its a real shame not to be able to use this study to prove anything (assuming we could dig out the full paper and not just what a journalist thinks were the findings). But that’s the tough thing about science, it demands intellectual rigour that means sometimes you can’t use certain results.
Lets see if there is cooling for the next decade as these writers predict. If they are more accurate than the IPCC et al models, then we could have a useful datapoint.
The decadal graphs will soon start to show the effects of post 2000 data. Its going to be increasingly difficult to argue against the data as this decade continues.
Scientists that are predicting a cooling trend
Compiling a list here and it getting longer
first entry
https://weathercycles.wordpress.com/timo-niroma/