This is where the Navy forecasts the edge of 1.5 metre thick ice to be on August 14. It seems unlikely that much 1.5 metre thick ice will melt out after mid-August, particularly since most of that area is forecast to be below freezing.
Can the bears find any ice?
Seems like Andy Revkin is not so sure anymore.
But even as I push for an energy quest that limits climate risk, I’m not worried about the resilience of Arctic ecosystems and not worried about the system tipping into an irreversibly slushy state on time scales relevant to today’s policy debates. This is one reason I don’t go for descriptions of the system being in a “death spiral.”
The main source of my Arctic comfort level — besides what I learned while camped with scientists on the North Pole sea ice — is the growing body of work on past variability of conditions in the Arctic.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/09/quote-of-the-week-death-of-the-arctic-death-spiral/#more-44776
Revkin is obviously one of those fellows who thinks things through very carefully before penning something. Adding that he works for such a vaunted outlet of clearly defined facts and unpartisan analysis as the NYT* is quite telling. I’m figuring less than a week and the torrent of hate-mail from the warmies will have him penning an abject apology.
*Jayson Blair, Paul Krugman, Maureen Dowd, . . .
Can a bear relieve itself in the woods?
Stupid Arctic. Die Die Die!
With Love,
NOAA
Best regards,
NCAR
What would the approximate extent be if all the sub-1.5 m ice was lost and there was no additional compaction?
-Scott
So you are still sticking to your 6 million ice extent eh Steve?
Good luck.
Andy
Anyone lying about predictions I didn’t make will be banned.
You have posted many times about how 2011 is tracking 2006. Given that it’s going to be about 6 million or so.
You are now saying the current ice extent will not lose much from now on, you have said it will be slow for the next two weeks, you say father Sun is going to bed and packling up.
All the above gives your indication where the minima will lie, you don’t have to say it explicitely, we all know where your marker in the sand is placed.
If I said you said it would be 8 million or 2 million then ban me.
Andy
You are an idiot.
Looking at the MODIS data from today, I would say the PIPS model is overestimating ice thickness in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas, The ice looks rather thin and even more open water has developed in the ice pack today then was there yesterday. The AMSR-E data is also picking up those open water areas, which is one reason the AMSR-E ice extent from the University of Bremen is tracking the 2007 line while NSIDC is showing slightly higher extent than in 2007 – SSM/I from NSIDC is at 25 sq-km, AMSR-E is at 12.5 sq-km). Given that the last several days have seen drops of at least 100,000 sq-km even in the NSIDC extent fields, I would say that the ice is thinner than the PIPS model shows (at least in the Beaufort/Chukchi seas)