Chill Settling In Over The Arctic

Posted on August 9, 2011 by Tony Heller

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html

Large areas of below freezing temperatures are forecast to settle in over the next two weeks.

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

23 Responses to Chill Settling In Over The Arctic

  1. Amino Acids in Meteorites says:
    August 9, 2011 at 4:19 am

    Speaking of cool air coming down from the Arctic into the US……

    It looks more and more like a double dip La Nina will happen. The warm water under the surface on the equator in the Pacific that was moving eastward in the circular equator current is cooling. So by time it gets to the Galapagos Islands, and comes up to then head back west, it looks like it will be bringing up cool water and not warm.

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif

    Reply
    • PearlandAggie says:
      August 9, 2011 at 11:27 am

      Ugh! I hope you’re wrong 😐

      El Nino would bring relief to the drought conditions and help to put a lid on potential hurricane formation. Another cold, dry winter would pretty much finish off my pygmy date palms that haven’t recovered from last winter…

      Reply
  2. AndyW says:
    August 9, 2011 at 4:53 am

    What are sea temps like up there at present?

    Andy

    Reply
  3. Tony Duncan says:
    August 9, 2011 at 6:00 am

    Steve,
    still a shot at 6 million. I tell you you could become fabulously wealthy.
    With that cold weather coming in it will take us almost to September and and it is STILL nearly 100,000 KM over 6M. That is an area that DWARFS Manhattan. How could THAT much ice melt in just a few days of non cold weather before the refreezing starts.

    Reply
    • AndyW says:
      August 9, 2011 at 7:40 am

      Have you got your tongue in your cheek Tony? 🙂

      I want to see Steve’s 2011 tracking 2006 graph again, it seems to have gone missing recently. Maybe it went the same way as Steve’s target graph from last year when it ended up showing his prediction was worse than NSIDC and so it disappeared. Perhaps eton by a polar bear?

      There’s a pun in that last sentence, for once not a spelling mistake 😀

      Andy

      Reply
    • Paul H says:
      August 9, 2011 at 11:51 am

      Thanks Tony for yet another scintillatingly incisive comment.

      Reply
    • suyts says:
      August 9, 2011 at 12:27 pm

      Tony, arctic temps don’t seem don’t seem to be a function of the sea ice.

      http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/is-arctic-ice-loss-related-to-temperature-in-the-arctic/

      Reply
      • Peter Ellis says:
        August 9, 2011 at 1:43 pm

        At equilibrium, what is the temperature of 99 kilos of melting ice surrounded by 1 litre of water? What is the temperature of 1 kilo of melting ice surrounded by 99 litres of water?

        Hint: given equilibrium, it’s identical. Surface temperature cannot under any circumstances tell you anything about how much ice is left.

        Reply
      • suyts says:
        August 9, 2011 at 2:02 pm

        Indeed, Peter, thanks, but that wasn’t the thrust of my comment. I think, when discussing ice loss in the arctic, the word “melt” is more a misnomer than anything. DMI has this year’s arctic temps slightly lower than the 1958-2002 mean, and yet, we’ve significantly less ice today.

        I think arctic ice loss is reflective of the various oscillating and osculating events, along with wind currents.

        BTW, thanks for the bit about equilibrium. It almost applies. I agree, temps can’t tells us how much ice is left, nor, under typical arctic temp conditions, such as we see this year, can it tells us anything about the ice loss rate.

        Reply
  4. Grumpy Grampy ;) says:
    August 9, 2011 at 2:59 pm

    Peter:
    There is no such thing as equilibrium in nature. There is a striving for Equilibrium that is never reached as it is overshot or a variation in forcing comes into play. Equilibrium would be the end of existence.

    Reply
  5. julienne stroeve says:
    August 9, 2011 at 3:13 pm

    20110804 = 6.4907200
    20110805 = 6.3799900
    20110806 = 6.2451500
    20110807 = 6.1441500
    20110808 = 6.1080100 (this number still preliminary because of a missing swath that is currently
    filled in as 100% ice).

    Forecast from the Canadian Meterological Center has the Beaufort Sea High re-establishing.

    Looking at recent buoy data (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm) it doesn’t appear that there was anomalous surface or basal melt this summer. Export out of Fram Strait hasn’t been unusual this summer either. Yet the extent remains low and the ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi seas looks quite thin in the MODIS imagery. Will be interesting to see if the higher ice loss rates the last few days continues. 2008 saw anomalous ice loss in August because the ice was thin and the weather became conducive for more ice loss.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *