http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html
Large areas of below freezing temperatures are forecast to settle in over the next two weeks.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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Speaking of cool air coming down from the Arctic into the US……
It looks more and more like a double dip La Nina will happen. The warm water under the surface on the equator in the Pacific that was moving eastward in the circular equator current is cooling. So by time it gets to the Galapagos Islands, and comes up to then head back west, it looks like it will be bringing up cool water and not warm.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub_surf_mon.gif
Ugh! I hope you’re wrong 😐
El Nino would bring relief to the drought conditions and help to put a lid on potential hurricane formation. Another cold, dry winter would pretty much finish off my pygmy date palms that haven’t recovered from last winter…
Aggie, put some manganese sulfate around them. Cold makes them very susceptible to frizzle top.
What are sea temps like up there at present?
Andy
Steve,
still a shot at 6 million. I tell you you could become fabulously wealthy.
With that cold weather coming in it will take us almost to September and and it is STILL nearly 100,000 KM over 6M. That is an area that DWARFS Manhattan. How could THAT much ice melt in just a few days of non cold weather before the refreezing starts.
Another moron.
Have you got your tongue in your cheek Tony? 🙂
I want to see Steve’s 2011 tracking 2006 graph again, it seems to have gone missing recently. Maybe it went the same way as Steve’s target graph from last year when it ended up showing his prediction was worse than NSIDC and so it disappeared. Perhaps eton by a polar bear?
There’s a pun in that last sentence, for once not a spelling mistake 😀
Andy
Andy! It’s much punnier when left for the reader to discern!
Thanks Tony for yet another scintillatingly incisive comment.
Paul,
I am WAY behind on the scintillating comments. Still haven’t figured out how to make multiple Z’s on this darn computer thing.
TonyD:
Like this:
“ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz”!
TonyD:
It is a state secret so I can not tell you how!
Tony, arctic temps don’t seem don’t seem to be a function of the sea ice.
http://suyts.wordpress.com/2011/08/08/is-arctic-ice-loss-related-to-temperature-in-the-arctic/
At equilibrium, what is the temperature of 99 kilos of melting ice surrounded by 1 litre of water? What is the temperature of 1 kilo of melting ice surrounded by 99 litres of water?
Hint: given equilibrium, it’s identical. Surface temperature cannot under any circumstances tell you anything about how much ice is left.
The latent heat of melting ice is very high. Without a heat source, melt will shut down quickly.
Indeed, Peter, thanks, but that wasn’t the thrust of my comment. I think, when discussing ice loss in the arctic, the word “melt” is more a misnomer than anything. DMI has this year’s arctic temps slightly lower than the 1958-2002 mean, and yet, we’ve significantly less ice today.
I think arctic ice loss is reflective of the various oscillating and osculating events, along with wind currents.
BTW, thanks for the bit about equilibrium. It almost applies. I agree, temps can’t tells us how much ice is left, nor, under typical arctic temp conditions, such as we see this year, can it tells us anything about the ice loss rate.
Peter:
There is no such thing as equilibrium in nature. There is a striving for Equilibrium that is never reached as it is overshot or a variation in forcing comes into play. Equilibrium would be the end of existence.
Yeh, he was just pulling out an old reliable strawman.
20110804 = 6.4907200
20110805 = 6.3799900
20110806 = 6.2451500
20110807 = 6.1441500
20110808 = 6.1080100 (this number still preliminary because of a missing swath that is currently
filled in as 100% ice).
Forecast from the Canadian Meterological Center has the Beaufort Sea High re-establishing.
Looking at recent buoy data (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm) it doesn’t appear that there was anomalous surface or basal melt this summer. Export out of Fram Strait hasn’t been unusual this summer either. Yet the extent remains low and the ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi seas looks quite thin in the MODIS imagery. Will be interesting to see if the higher ice loss rates the last few days continues. 2008 saw anomalous ice loss in August because the ice was thin and the weather became conducive for more ice loss.
I wondered why 2008 was so late in melting, thanks.
Looks like 2011 will be heading below 6 million in the quickest time apart from 2007 still on the JAXA spreadsheet. The high pressure region is now smack in the middle again
http://www.meteo.uni-koeln.de/meteo.php?show=En_We_Wk
Now this is interesting because if the lows in the last week or two in that region pushed the extent out then a High in that region might have more surface area to work on so we may see a rapid melt resume. Will be good to watch.
Andy
2006 was below 6 million, Homer
Steve,
5.79, but with the recovery and all, one would expect closer to 6 for this year, right? Is Anthony still sticking to 5.5?
Why are you asking me these questions? I have made my forecasts completely clear.