Melting Has Essentially Stopped In The Arctic

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Area.png

One  of the regular spammers here doesn’t understand the difference between melt and compaction.  The ice area graph has been flat for about a week, indicating that there is very little melt going on. Some of the extent graphs continue to decline a little because 15% concentration ice will compact if the wind is blowing it together.

The concept of ice not melting below the freezing point seems to be beyond Mr. Duncan’s comprehension.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

About Tony Heller

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38 Responses to Melting Has Essentially Stopped In The Arctic

  1. Chris says:

    and as you can see from the graph 2011 continues to very closely track 2006.

    • Another who can’t tell the difference between a forecast and an observation. I made it 100% clear that I am not making any area or extent forecasts this year. If you have to lie to yourself to maintain your belief system, then you are a pathetic excuse for a human being – and will become spam.

      • Chris says:

        You made 10 posts over the last couple of months stating that 2011 was tracking 2006 while ignoring that it was tracking 2007 just as well or better by the very metric you specified.

        Go ahead and call me a moron if it makes you feel better.

      • Chris says:

        http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2011/06/20/2011-ice-continues-to-track-2006/#comments

        stevengoddard says:
        “Do you understand what it means to track? The average delta between 2006 and 2011 is much smaller than the average delta between 2010 and 2011.”

        stevengoddard says:
        “How much would you bet that 2011 will end up closer to 2007 than to 2006?”

      • Ill wind blowing says:

        Steve accuses Chris of making a false statement and does so with an insult and a threat:

        “Another who can’t tell the difference between a forecast and an observation. I made it 100% clear that I am not making any area or extent forecasts this year. If you have to lie to yourself to maintain your belief system, then you are a pathetic excuse for a human being – and will become spam.”

        Chris responds by quoting Steve:

        stevengoddard says:
        “How much would you bet that 2011 will end up closer to 2007 than to 2006?”

        Steve responds:

        “So you know what the September, 2011 ice extent will be?”

        Ill wind blowing adds his two cents in:

        Steve, your response fails to acknowledge the fact that you made a statement today that contradicts a statement you previously made. You owe Chris an apology.

  2. Peter Ellis says:

    The freezing point in the Arctic is about -1.5 degrees, so we’ve not yet reached it. We are at the point where freshwater snowmelt ponds have started freezing over, so area from now on is likely to decline slower than extent. It’s meretricious in the extreme for you to suddenly point to the area curve when it takes a slight uptick, after ignoring it all season because it didn’t tell the story you wanted to tell.

  3. AndyW says:

    Well another 75 000 km ^2 of “compaction” today.

    The ice area doesn’t look flat to me

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png

    If it was wind you’d expect it to fluctuate, sometimes big losses, sometimes even a gain. But I think it is likely that every day is likely to be negative for at least another 2 weeks. Hence melting in situe again.

    As Peter mentions Ice melts when it is less than 0C of course. I can still see temps 1,2,4 C etc
    http://www.meteo.uni-koeln.de/meteo.php?show=En_We_Wk

    Andy

  4. NoMoreGore says:

    Okay, I’m making my prediction: I predict it won’t matter one iota what the minimum is, or which year was more accurately tracked. Polar bears won’t care, Oceans won’t change beyond a mm or two, and refreezing will commence shortly just as it does every year.

    The arctic will continue NOT screaming, but the Bedwetters will scream instead.

    • AndyW says:

      I bet if it was tending to increase in ice each year and not decrease then you#d change your tune, suddenly it would become a lot more imporatant. 😉

      Andy

    • omnologos says:

      I predict that if and when there is an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the Summer, the waters, the atmosphere, the clouds, the whole lot wil NOT behave as expected by the models.

      • Mike Davis says:

        That is a good prediction. No matter what happens it is not exactly what was expected by the models because the models do not show exactly what is expected by any other model. The models used to predict future climate falsify each other.

      • Ill wind blowing says:

        “I predict that if and when there is an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the Summer, the waters, the atmosphere, the clouds, the whole lot wil NOT behave as expected by the models.”

        It seems, from recent models, that there may be a fluctuating situation where the Arctic will be ice free for a few days at Maxima certain years but followed by partial rebound on other years.

        I say rebound and not recovery because the trend will still be towards ice free conditions. A rebound certainly does not mean that the ice cap will recover anywhere to its present extent. A virtually permanent ice free Arctic would occur later than anticipated.

        Whatever the case, weather in the Northern Hemisphere would be greatly altered. “Ice free” conditions for a few days, or even a rebound for a few years will still allow for a substantially open Arctic for one or more months before peak melt.

        The Arctic only needs to be half open for a few weeks to cause severe consequences like under and over-watering of crops.

  5. Gator says:

    Ice melts, big deal.

  6. roger says:

    Four years after the pronounced death spiral it continues unabated. The warmist brain cells have diminished to a tipping point that is beyond recovery.

    • Mike Davis says:

      I found evidence the tipping point was reached when surrealclimatte went on line and bred mutated offspring possibly due to incesttual relationships within the climatology community.

  7. AndyW says:

    Paul H says:
    August 19, 2011 at 9:20 am
    What, like the Antarctic, Andy?

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_hires.png

    **********************************************

    Yes, like the Antarctic too. That needs to be explained equally so.

    In the Antarctic the increase in ice for the last few years has always been above the average, this was explained as stronger southerly winds pushing the ice out further. This was more of a feature than the maxima which varied and the summer melt which always matched the average. This year however it is different

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.antarctic.png

    so that will be interesting to watch. It does mean that the global ice may not go above zero in the year for the first time in the normal sat period of measurement

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg

    Andy

  8. Wayne Ward (truthsword) says:

    The good news for AGWers is that when the Arctic does start increasing, the Antarctic will start decreasing… they will sill have something to yell about.

  9. Blade says:

    The Arctic will be the final tipping point into a death spiral for AGW. After some unknown period of time the AGW cult will look incredibly silly pumping Arctic scare stories. The worst case scenario seems that for a week or two each NH summer there will be some more open water in areas within the Arctic circle, but not enough to do anything useful like circumnavigate the circle in a boat.

    Unless Earth gets whacked bad by an enormous object onto its side like Uranus, the axial tilt means it will remain cold up there forever.

    “Uranus has an axial tilt of 97.77 degrees, so its axis of rotation is approximately parallel with the plane of the Solar System. This gives it seasonal changes completely unlike those of the other major planets. Other planets can be visualized to rotate like tilted spinning tops on the plane of the Solar System, while Uranus rotates more like a tilted rolling ball. Near the time of Uranian solstices, one pole faces the Sun continuously while the other pole faces away. Only a narrow strip around the equator experiences a rapid day-night cycle, but with the Sun very low over the horizon as in the Earth’s polar regions. At the other side of Uranus’s orbit the orientation of the poles towards the Sun is reversed. Each pole gets around 42 years of continuous sunlight, followed by 42 years of darkness.[49] Near the time of the equinoxes, the Sun faces the equator of Uranus giving a period of day-night cycles similar to those seen on most of the other planets. Uranus reached its most recent equinox on December 7, 2007.[50][51]

    One result of this axis orientation is that, on average during the year, the polar regions of Uranus receive a greater energy input from the Sun than its equatorial regions. Nevertheless, Uranus is hotter at its equator than at its poles. The underlying mechanism which causes this is unknown. The reason for Uranus’s unusual axial tilt is also not known with certainty, but the usual speculation is that during the formation of the Solar System, an Earth sized protoplanet collided with Uranus, causing the skewed orientation.[52] Uranus’s south pole was pointed almost directly at the Sun at the time of Voyager 2’s flyby in 1986. The labeling of this pole as “south” uses the definition currently endorsed by the International Astronomical Union, namely that the north pole of a planet or satellite shall be the pole which points above the invariable plane of the Solar System, regardless of the direction the planet is spinning.[53][54] A different convention is sometimes used, in which a body’s north and south poles are defined according to the right-hand rule in relation to the direction of rotation.[55] In terms of this latter coordinate system it was Uranus’s north pole which was in sunlight in 1986.”

    _Wiki_

  10. Steve we have all the factors that control the climate, from prolong low solar activity,to an increase in volcanic activity, to the cold pdo, and more La NIna’s going forward; to a more -ao/nao ,going forward, all of which point to colder temperatures for this decade which is going to be the case.AMO, will also be turning colder later this decade by the way.

    The following 4 facotrs should support a more -AO this winter:
    1. low solar
    2. easterly QBO
    3. Weaker La Nina
    4,. more high latitude volcanic activity

    5. In additon to a general condition of stratosphere warming ,not cooling which the models have wrongly predicted, those items above aside.

    The above will promote in my opinion more clouds,snow cover,and precip . which wil result in a higher albedo overall of earth, thus cooling.

    One should study the Dalton and Maunder Minimum’s to see where I am coming from.

    Everything is phasing in toward a cold mode. The Arctic ice situation will take care of itself, I am not concerned about it.

  11. Ill wind blowing says:

    “I predict that if and when there is an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the Summer, the waters, the atmosphere, the clouds, the whole lot wil NOT behave as expected by the models.”

    It seems, from recent models, that there may be a fluctuating situation where the Arctic will be ice free, for a few days at Maxima, on certain years but followed by partial rebound on other years.

    I say rebound, not recovery, because the trend will still be towards ice free conditions. A rebound certainly does not mean that the ice cap will recover anywhere to its present extent. A virtually permanent ice free Arctic would occur later than anticipated.

    Whatever the case, weather in the Northern Hemisphere would be greatly altered. “Ice free” conditions for a few days, or even a rebound for a few years will still allow for a substantially open Arctic for one or more months before peak melt.

    The Arctic only needs to be half open for a few weeks to cause severe consequences like under and over-watering of crops.

  12. Terra Incognita says:

    “I predict that if and when there is an ice-free Arctic Ocean in the Summer, the waters, the atmosphere, the clouds, the whole lot wil NOT behave as expected by the models.”

    It seems, from recent models, that there may be a fluctuating situation where the Arctic will be ice free for a few days at Maxima certain years but followed by partial rebound on other years.

    I say rebound and not recovery because the trend will still be towards ice free conditions. A rebound certainly does not mean that the ice cap will recover anywhere to its present extent. A virtually permanent ice free Arctic would occur later than anticipated.

    Whatever the case, weather in the Northern Hemisphere would be greatly altered. “Ice free” conditions for a few days, or even a rebound for a few years will still allow for a substantially open Arctic for one or more months before peak melt.

    The Arctic only needs to be half open for a few weeks to cause severe consequences like under and over-watering of crops.

  13. omnologos says:

    IWB – do you work at the Met Office? You’re predicting it will be ice free apart from when iced over, and declining apart from when increasing. Congratulations, you’ve cracked the secret forecasting code!

  14. Chris says:

    Any melt in the last 5 days?

  15. Poundlet says:

    Why’s the said Ice Area graph still going down strongly?

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