The National Hurricane Center is forecasting that a hurricane will hit Florida or Georgia on Friday. This would end 1,078 days without a US hurricane strike – the longest stretch since before the Civil War.
Alarmists will claim that it is proof of global warming. They will say : “We can’t attribute any particular storm to climate change, but this is exactly the sort of weather we expect to happen in a warming world.”
Yes and perchance if it happens to be devastating, then the meme will be that AGW presumably causes infrequent but monstrous hurricanes
Interestingly, the track of Irene has already shifted a bit to the east between yesterday and today. They had had it track straight into Homestead, south of Miami, for the center prediction. Now the center track seems to be just brushing the coast. By tomorrow, will that track further east?
LOL……and there was a run on beer down here
Yes, if the models still hold…NHC is splitting the difference right now.
GFDL and UKM are the only two outliers. They never grab a storm until it has a stacked upper level. It has that now, but there are no new runs to see what they do….
Right now, I think there’s an equal chance it will be a fish storm once it clears the Bahamas……………..it didn’t hit the mountains, developed faster, and is turning north sooner
They will say : “We can’t attribute any particular storm to climate change, but this is exactly the sort of weather we expect to happen in a warming world.”
Just thought it bore repeating…..
Looks like the models have moved Irene even more east…
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png
Aggie, she had a l’attitude adjustment over PR……took a jump to the right
North of the forecast track right now and heading NW, not WNW as modeled
Stubborn Irene won’t cooperate…LOL
“All models are wrong, but some are useful.”
The 9AM EDT model initiations take Irene further right as well. (Forgive me, Aggie, if those were the ones you referenced. I can’t get to your link, and the time stamps on this site look to be from where? The far east, maybe?) In any case, I’ll bet Mr. Obama’s record will be intact for at leat another week.
It’s alright. I think the model runs I posted were a little earlier than that.
Landfall at Martha’s vineyard next Tuesday as a strong cat 5! Before then it will follow the coast a hundred miles or so east of land!
It will give Obambi something to look forward to!
NWS has her hitting S.C. 8 AM Sat. But we all know about their accuracy record this far in advance.
Crap, hurricane preps again. It will probably jog out to sea after we jump through buring hoops of fire.
*burning*
Today’s word is “pounds” children……
Dr. Jeff Masters’ WunderBlog
Hurricane Irene pounds Puerto Rico, heads for Hispaniola
“The San Juan Airport recorded top winds of 41 mph, gusting to 55 mph, and 2.87″ of rain”
He does not realize what a total idiot he sounds like to everyone down here…
….we call that a squall line
…and a weak squall at that!
I played golf in Bermuda in that weather before. My drives on some holes were very short. The 8th hole par 3 at Port Royal was into the ocean wind and I a squall you could hit a driver and be short of the green.
No doubt, Aggie, a squall that all in Pearland would welcome right about now. Wouldn’t almost 3″ of rain be delicious in Southeast Houston about now?
Every model run takes it further East……………
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots
LOL…they couldn’t even wait till tomorrow to go “our bad!”
Come on baby, Martha’s Vineyard or bust!
The models are now biased towards forecasting more westerly storm tracks, after the dismal performance of those same models in previous years, particularly here in Florida in 2004, when the models persistently forecast storm tracks that were biased east of the actual path taken. We lived through the evacuation of Pinellas county, which was forecast to be bulldozed by Charlie. About a half-million people rushed off to Orlando… which is where Charlie plowed through after demolishing Punta Gorda. That storm track forecast was a total miss less than 4 hours before it was supposed to strike.
Of course, prior to about 1950, the satellite-verified storm track forecasts were always highly reliable. The persistent errors of hurricane track forecasts is another *clear indication* of CACC being smeared all over precious Gaia by big oil. This just as we predicted, somewhere amongst the thousands of scenarios that we published over the past 20 years.
🙂
Chris, do you remember the afternoon before Andrew, they had the cone of death from Rio to New York….and it was only 65 miles off shore
You’re exactly right…..with bigger more expensive computers, they have been able to input more variables – and climate change biases – and they are a magnitude worse…
…and biased to the west
Hey, Gator, the 2PM GFS has Irene hitting martha’s Vineyard dead on. Not as a CAT 5, but who really cares about that?
Of course: in a warming world, the number of hurricanes could fall, and be more intense, or they could grow in number, and be less intense, or any combination thereof. Now, where’s my grant money!?!?
A few years ago it was, ‘Global warming will bring more storms’. Now its less storms!
Come on you Alarmists get the story correct.
Chicken Little is always correct! However each day brings something different to be correct about. You and I may think it conflicts with previous claims but in their reality the claims are complimentary.
Strong is consistent with weak and more is consistent with less. In the Chicken Little world words take on a new meaning!
Some are saying it is another isabel (we do not have good luck with Eye Hurricanes around here). If so, can I blame Obama for not rescuing me from the downtown coliseum?