On Track For A Record Low

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

About Tony Heller

Just having fun
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15 Responses to On Track For A Record Low

  1. pinkman3610 says:

    Second most “low record” ice extent record on record!

  2. Mike Davis says:

    Call 911 and get the paramedics there stat it has flatlined and needs to be resuscitated.
    Actually I think the depletion of ice is over for the year and regrowth has started early.

  3. Tony Duncan says:

    Steve,

    Look at the SLOPE of that thing. Clearly, as anyone who read your posts would know, ice extent, will increase until it gets to the 2005-6 level on September 15, as you and Joe foresaw earlier this year.

  4. Scott says:

    CT’s area value for Aug 19 is within 2500 km^2 of where it was on Aug 13. On Aug 13, 2011 was supposedly 270k km^2 below 2007 and all the alarmists were shouting loudly about area. Fast forward to Aug 19 and 2011 is supposedly 174k km^2 above 2007…suddenly the shouting is gone and not even an echo remains. People will likely have forgotten, but R. Gates said a few weeks ago that 2011 “will” set a new record low for area. Not “probably” or “likely” but the more definitive word. And while a new record is still a possibility, the probability has dropped quite a bit and my numbers indicate it as being below 50%.

    Anyway, my final extent projection hasn’t changed much, with a JAXA daily minimum value of 4507698 km^2…still about halfway between 2007 and 2008.

    -Scott

    • Tony Duncan says:

      Scott,

      Damn, you really DID predict lower than me!
      Who is R. Gates?

      • Scott says:

        Hi Tony,

        R. Gates is a favorite “antagonist” (depends on one’s perspective) over at WUWT. He gets a fair amount wrong, but he’s decently knowledgable in several things and at least gives the impression that he’s more open minded than many on either side. I don’t dislike him, though I like your style more.

        Also, my predictions get updated throughout the season, my earliest guesses had me more in the 4.8-4.9 million km^2 range (IIRC) and I’ve lowered that over the last few months. Right now (and over the past few weeks), the big question is whether the area metric is contaminated more than normal (and the more than normal part is the important point) with melt pond issues. If so, we may see levels closer to 2008/2010 rather than between 2007/2008. If the area is truly representative and weather is bad, we could still see a sub-2007 value.

        -Scott

    • Terra Incognita says:

      “I just put Mr. Duncan on spam.”

      Another one bites the dust.

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