I got this E-mail from Pat Michaels yesterday around lunchtime
As of mid-afternoon on Thursday, recon and satellite data indicate that Irene is currently in decline. I doubt it is a cat 3 any more but the Hurricane Center will keep it there, at least for now, for what they call “continuity”, given the fact that it could re-intensify tomorrow when it gets in the coastal bend of FL GA SC, a favorable region for that for a number of reasons.
The Infrared image is singularly UN-impressive this afternoon. Further, it looks like a dry slot is going to wind around the center (the eyewall is already pretty much opened up to the south), and that will reduce maximum winds. Whether or not it comes back will probably be known in 24 hours.
Patrick J. Michaels is a Senior Research Fellow for Research and Economic Development at George Mason University. He is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and was program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society. Michaels was also a research professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia for thirty years. Michaels is a contributing author and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. His writing has been published in the major scientific journals, including Climate Research, Climatic Change, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate, Nature, and Science, as well as in popular serials such as the Washington Post, Washington Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Houston Chronicle, and Journal of Commerce. He was an author of the climate “paper of the year” awarded by the Association of American Geographers in 2004. He has appeared on most of the worldwide major media. Michaels holds A.B. and S.M. degrees in biological sciences and plant ecology from the University of Chicago, and he received a Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin at Madison in 1979.
The only “if” left is interaction with the coast….
…that can make them spin down right before land fall with a small tight eye
Which of course would make winds intensify for a very short time…………
It’s not shear right now, it’s sucking in dry air on the SW…………
computer games are going to change shortly with a whole new track
Can it go east and miss the US?
Take a look at this…………….
http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.gif
pretty neat!
No point, I guess, in confusing the unwashed masses with a real-time hurricane intensity time line that actually shows declining/increasing intensity trends as they happen. Wouldn’t want to make the voters have to think or make self-serving decisions regarding their and their family and live stock’s health and well being. Do I really have to add /sarc? These people are asshats.
This is the mushroom theory of population management – keep them in the dark and feed them bs.
The only thing he got wrong was they are holding it CAT 2 instead of 3. I think the max sustained is 96 or less now.