Less than 24 hours ago Romm promised us that Manhattan would drown. Obama runs back to the golf links of the south.
The hype over Hurricane Irene is overblown, predicts the CEO of Advanced Forecasting Corporation.
“North of Delaware, most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.”
o The demise of Irene has already begun. There is no visible eye. The storm intensity is down to 99 mph. This would be a low-end category 2 or a strong category 1 storm, while 36 hours ago some predicted a catastrophic category 4 storm. Air Force Reserve aircraft have found that Irene’s eyewall has collapsed, and the central pressure has risen — rising pressure means a weakening storm.o The reduction in storm intensity likely confirms that this storm is not going to be as monstrous as it has been publicly forecast to be.
o Yes, it will be windy. However, north of Delaware most hurricane force winds will very likely be gusts, not sustained winds.
Steve;
I’m glad to see, that even though you have a low opinion of environmentalism, you believe in recycling.
I probably have the lowest carbon footprint of anyone that you know, as I cycle everywhere, eat almost no meat, and don’t use air conditioning. I have been an active environmentalist all my life – but feel free to act like a moron.
Just out of complete curiosity – how far are you from work? (I assume you bike to work).
I normally ride 30-50 miles per day for commuting, shopping and recreation.
My humble apologies for assuming that you were like 95% of all skeptics.
You do realize that I was talking about your threads, right?
You have interviewed all skeptics?
Thanks for the info Steve … 30-50 miles per day is impressive.
No really. I love to ride and absolutely detest driving. As soon as I get on my bike I feel free and happy, no matter what else is going on at the time. I would ride eight hours every if I could afford it.
“You have interviewed all skeptics?”
No more than you have interviewed all “warmists” on their politics-yet assume that they are Socialists, Fascists and so on.
I have been observing comments on WUWT for years so I can make a good guess as to the opinions of most skeptics on the environment and other issues.
The only thing I assume is that you are a loon.
Terra, you’re in a world that exists only in your mind. Most commentators at WUWT are very environmentally minded. Heck, Anthony frequently posts stuff about how he’s conserving energy…. fitting his house with energy saving gizmos…. etc. About the only difference is, loons believe CO2 is a pollutant while most rational people understand CO2 is beneficial to mankind.
I seriously doubt that there is a significant lifestyle/consumption difference between your average skeptic and your average warmist. It’s just something that you would like to believe, Terra. Very few people go around wasting their own money.
Your comments are more like Terribla Ignoranta
It is down to 100 MPH.
Just a category 2 storm now.
Irene limps into Virginia Beach as a CAT 1 under 90 MPH
http://crisislanding.appspot.com/
Hey, is there even a chance that it will not officially hit the USA? I was really hoping we would set a record on days between hurricane landings.
Some of the models predict it will miss completely
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
Thanks. I am hoping for a miss.
The models have been working with a much stronger low, much smaller storm, no shear at all, and no dry air…
…they are going to change
I just did another GFS/WRF run, and it shows the storm falling apart just north of North Carolina.
Well the euro model fell apart this morning…..they’ve been claiming it was their best one for Irene………….
They were all grabbing a much stronger low with high steering…..
….watch what they do now
…and go back five days and see what I said
The problem has become computer models…..
…people are looking at all the different models and deciding from that
They have completely forgotten how to do it long hand………….
People can see things that computer models do not see.
It is because the programmer cannot program for all contingencies and the computer can’t think.
suyts
Even if programmers could be perfect and computers could think, a model by definition is an abstraction of reality “deciding” to ignore certain details that are considered “irrelevant”. In case of climatology (not very different from sociology) the abstraction is still at the level of stick figures.
Let me rephrase what I just posted on another thread, before it died and reincarnated into this one:
Can you predict whether a Hurricane will make landfall, brush the coast, or substantially weaken, days ahead of time? If you’re at the foot of a tall mountain and see a boulder coming down in your general direction, would you think that there is no justification in getting out of its way? So what if it happens to change course while tumbling down and it misses you by a hundred feet?
Whatever damage the hurricane causes or fails to cause is TOTALLY irrelevant to the fact that it was positioned in such a way as to make itself a threat. You did not have the psychic ability to predict what that Hurricane would do a couple days ago, so you are in no position to rationalize a do-nothing attitude.
Every time I get on my bike, there is a danger I will get hit by a car. It has happened twice in the last two years. I still get on my bike.
Five days ago, Irene was going up the center of Florida as a Cat 4……………….
“Every time I get on my bike, there is a danger I will get hit by a car.”
Not that this is a response to my comment; even though it was posted in the Reply box. For what it’s worth …
I used to go to work on a 3 wheel recumbent bicycle with a very low profile and my a$$ 8 inches off the road. I’ve been stopped by cops several times and been stared at by them even more.
I’ve also have had white trash heckle me simply because of the looks of my bike and even had neighbors sic their dogs on me.
http://www.rehabmart.com/imagesfromrd/TMI-JrLowRider-Web(1).jpg
I was just commenting to one of my kids this morning about how dangerous recumbent bikes are.
Love it! Adult Hot Wheels!
“I was just commenting to one of my kids this morning about how dangerous recumbent bikes are.”
Ironically, I get noticed more by motorists on my recumbent than I would on a regular bicycle. It seems that the unusual shape of the recumbent stands out more, in spite of its lower profile, than conventional bikes.
Steve, with as much biking as you do, I don’t know how you’re not dead. I bike roughly in a week what you do in a day and I see ridiculous amounts of dumb stuff. Today alone I saw a car nearly nail a biker when the biker didn’t have a stop sign and the driver did. The lady in the car then stopped and started yelling at the biker. Just a couple minutes later I saw a woman driving an SUV and on her cell phone full speed the WRONG WAY on Mason (a one-way street at that point). People were honking at her but she seemed oblivious. The number of hooks both right and left that I’ve come within inches of getting is scary.
-Scott
I ride very defensively.
http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-yorkers-soak-beach-225117758.html
Yahoo has a story about New Yorkers who don’t believe their Mayor or their government. They were interviewed on the beach and claim they don’t believe the hype. This is what happens, if you hype these storms as “monsters” or “historical” then people get to where they don’t believe you.
Read the story of the boy who cried wolf.
Most people who mention the story of the boy who cried wolf don’t really understand it.
The boy who cried wolf had been given the responsibility, by the villagers, of watching the flock and “cry wolf” if when he saw one. The problem was that he cried wolf when there was none, as a joke.
It would have been no joke if he had not cried wolf, if there was one anywhere near the flock, simply because he wasn’t sure if it would attack. Maybe the wolf was not hungry and was simply looking at the flock out of curiosity. It was not his responsibility to speculate on the intentions of the wolf.
If the wolf was sighted the villagers would gladly come out regardless of what they thought of the wolf’s intentions.
But then the posters here are like a foolish villager, who would criticize a responsible wolf crier, by saying something like:
“Why did you make such a ruckus unless the wolf was actually tearing apart a sheep? So what if we lose one sheep, it’s not worth the bother if you’re not sure that the wolf would strike.”
Now replace the word “wolf” with “hurricane”.
Hey there Earth in plain clothes, the problem is, when you warmists cry wolf over everything, then when a real alarm arises from a scientist no one will believe him or her and that’s when shit hits the fan. And now for you to use this Hurricane as a comparison to a story of the boy that cried wolf, that is laughable, because there is a Hurricane out there you moron, not a joke that the boy wanted to play. I don’t remember there being a wolf in that story until the end, that’s the moral of that story, now go and piss in your corn flakes again.
Terra, I took your advice and replaced “wolf” with “hurricane”. Two things leapt out at me:
1) WTF the villagers and a boy and a hurricane have to do with each other
2) You are still a maroon
Can I replace man made global warming with Humpty Dumpty?
Terra, I don’t remember the thread, but Latitude did predict exactly what you said couldn’t happen.
But, to your point, the problem is, the alarmism tends to immune people to alarms. So, to move hundreds of thousands of people, the alarm will work a couple of times, but after that, like our tornado alarms in Kansas, when one goes off, people will, indeed leave their homes, but only to gander at the sky and look to see if there’s something worth seeing.
Warning people is fine. Alarming people? We need to be damned sure the alarm is real. That’s why the CO2 thing won’t ever gain any more traction than it already has. People my age have heard the doom and gloom since the 60s. Our children were raised on it. Nothing has ever happened. Life continues. When there is a real threat to humanity, it will be ignored. Why?………. well, that’s very easy to determine.
If you don’t use sound reason and judgement and you start panicking as Blomberg seems to be doing you can run to dodge the boulder and run right into the path of it.
“If you don’t use sound reason and judgement and you start panicking …”
It is you who wishes to believe that he is panicking.
Since you so kindly point out that Steven’s analogy is a non sequitur: Hurricanes aren’t boulders. Hurricanes don’t act like boulders falling down hills, ergo you shouldn’t treat hurricanes as though they were boulders falling down hills. For instance, without having witnessed such, one could easily posit the action of a boulder rolling down a hill on the Moon; the same person would be rightly criticised for being a moron of the lowest functioning for trying to posit the movement and effects of a hurricane on the Moon.
Hurricanes have nothing at all in common with boulders falling down hills, so your analogy needs a little polishing.
That’s when the whole global warming thing started falling apart, when they blamed everything on global warming to the point of being ludicrous. Apparently they don’t have an embarrassment gene. You can’t keep preaching doom and gloom for 30 years and expect people not to ignore you when nothing happens.
BTW, there are more people at UFO and trekkie conventions then Mckibben’s pipeline show.
Exactly. Soon, I expect an angry backlash at all of this. The people will only take so much.
“Exactly. Soon, I expect an angry backlash at all of this. The people will only take so much.”
You’re projecting your own feelings unto others.
Terra, I wish that were true. It isn’t. I’ve been at this game for a long time. Even before Mac broke the stick. And I was, for a period of time, very angry. But, like the reaction to constant alarm, my reaction to the constant assault on a free society has morphed from anger to bemusement. Oh, I’m still angered by it, but, not as often to the emotive state I once would get. But, that’s only because of time. Others, millions of others, haven’t carried the torch as long as people as myself and many others here. Others will soon realize the alarm over CO2 was about nothing other than people desiring a socioeconomic change. And, they’ll be angry about how people suffered and died because of this alarm. For instance, Steve recently posted an piece about how the people of Northern Ireland will have their energy/fuel rates raised. They already lose over 1,000 people a year to the cold. In a depressed economy, raising the rates is tantamount to sentencing more to die from the cold. This year! In a society that possesses the technology to lessen, not increase, human suffering and death.
If the laws and regulations continue in this manner, it will be a matter of when the people will have reached their limit, not if. They will seek a villain and the villain will be obvious. Skeptics such as me, will be the alarmists best friend. Because, I won’t seek an “eye for an eye”. But, you can be sure the people that bought into this madness and then realize they’ve been had……….they will.
Terra, I’ll expound on that thought in the near future. But, for now, I’ll say looking back on history, each societal generation is judged, not by the wealth accumulated, but rather their steps to increase the lot of the less advantaged. In my generation, we’ve failed to increase their lot. Great strides were made in the first couple of decades of my life. With this enduring obsession with CO2, energy, and fuel use, we’ve gone backwards and it is causing great societal harm.
If you don’t have a date yet for this weekend here is some sure fire advice on finding a date compliments of that galactic hunk Worf.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fik0yn0ZMIc
Terra Incognita says:
As are you. Not that I expect you would see it.
I thought this might be a good artical for all of you that put everything you own and believe in,into climate change.
1.Try some real perspective:The planet is 4.3 billions years old.
2.Of course there is climate change.This is not a staic planet.
3.The earth has cooled and heated thousands of times over.
4.You can’t base science on the last 100 years or the 1000 years.
5.Example:The Sahara desert was once a tropical paradise just 12000 years ago.People didn’t change it into a desert.
6.Humans have no real power over the planet.Get over yourselves
7.Here is a link that will give you some perspective on Al Gorical and the science fraudians.
http://www.globalwarming.org/2010/10/15/renowned-physicist-resigns-from-american-physical-society/
It’s interesting that Terra rides a recumbant bike. It’s derfinite indication that he and his views are odd ball.
Are people afraid to say he is riding a tricycle or an adult hot wheel! Bike is a two wheeled device for transportation. What he shows is not fit to be ridden on the streets.
I rode “Bikes” of the non motorized an motorized types over the years but not “Trikes”!
A lot of people prayed over this storm. It appears to many of us that God does answer prayer. A cat 4 and now less than one. I prayed for my relatives and for their safety in New York City and Jersey. thank you Lord Jesus.