In 2007, sea surface temperatures were far above normal in the Chukchi Sea. This year they are far below normal, which means that ice will form quickly. Most of the 2007 ice loss occurred during the following winter, when a lot of MYI blew out into the North Atlantic – leaving very thin ice in 2008.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/plots/satanom.arc.d-00.png
Steve, care to quantify your statements above? You may want to look at http://psc.apl.washington.edu/UpTempO/Data.php for weekly snapshots of SSTs – you can nicely see the impact of the August storm on the SSTs.
Please tell me, how much ice was exported out of Fram Strait in winter 2007/2008, and how does this compare to other years?
it’s true, the factors for the new minimum in 2012 are different from those in 2007 that was aided by very favorable weather conditions that summer. Yet the ice extent dropped below that in 2007 this summer. Observations show the ice was thinner this spring, so it doesn’t surprise me that the ice retreated as much as it has, though I am a bit surprised that the rate of ice loss continues to be as high as it is this late in the summer.
BTW..MASIE is now at 4.26, it was 5.01 on the same date in 2007. The 2007 minimum in MASIE was 3.99. NASA Team daily extent is 3.80 today.
Hi Julienne,
I posted a video of ice movement in 2007 here:
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2012/08/29/2007-ice-movement/
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Temperature/Current.aspx
The freezing line is forming in Siberia now I think.
Steve said
” Most of the 2007 ice loss occurred during the following winter, when a lot of MYI blew out into the North Atlantic – leaving very thin ice in 2008.”
What do you mean most ice loss happened in winter? Not extent obviously, guess you mean volume? But in 2008 summer ice extent rose so I doubt any of that MYI got melted in that summer and that is not thin ice anyway. The thin ice you mention gained in extent. Will be interesting to see how 2013 does compared to 2012, will it gain likewise?
Andy
PS MASIE seems to be becoming more in step with the microwave based measurements as suggested by NSIDC staff.