March 21, 2013
NOAA issued the three-month U.S. Spring Outlook today, stating that odds favor above-average temperatures across much of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas, the Southwest and the Great Plains. Spring promises little drought relief for most of these areas, as well as Florida, with below- average spring precipitation favored there.
NOAA predicts mixed bag of drought, flooding and warm weather for spring
Spring temperatures have been the coldest in almost a century, and most of the US has been drenched with rain.
I guess NOAA medium to long range forecasts are almost as reliable as those of the UK Met office.
Steve.
The MAM forecast is the spring forecast , not march 21 on. NOAA played that game when their horrible march put them so far behind they could not catch up and new it. They no darn well the winter season is DJF, Summer is JJA, so spring is in between and always has been until the inconvenient truth of what hit them, there was no spring in March, was used.
No reputable met I know considers spring starting march 21, we all look at in quarterly intervals and MAM are the spring season
MAMmy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIaj7FNHnjQ
One more thing, If I were to play that game ( shifting dates) then the winter forecast would have been great Dec 21-march 21. However because winter started later than I thought, I must live with the fact the 3 month winter period was not as cold as I had it ( DJF) But since the private sector has to be accountable, we can take credit for our 3 month idea for the Jan-march period, but certainly can not say the winter which was DJF was on. So the bust started with NOAA March 1 and then continued even when they tried to claim March 21 was the start.
They may have gotten this one wrong, but we should trust them on their 100 year prediction.
“…as well as Florida, with below- average spring precipitation favored there.”
Well, they did get this correct for Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. It is time to declare victory, since the forecast was accurate in approximately 500 ppm of the country’s area.
I hate when climate data goes wrong like this, because it makes skeptics happy.
The data is fine. It is the models that are broken.
Hey Daniel,
Don’t cry now but I’ve been kept very happy over the years by going to here and here. Check them out. 🙂
It wasn’t climate data, it was a three month weather prediction.
Close enough for government work.
I note that Piers Corbyn of WeatherAction has predicted some very stormy weather for the end of this month, particularly the Gulf States. Will be interesting to see how that pans out as he made the prediction in April. His forecast (good till June 1) is at http://bit.ly/10Ul8Zv.