These experts better start melting the ice soon, or they are going to end up with a lot of egg on their faces.
September Sea Ice Outlook: June Report | ARCUS
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Does anyone have any idea what “average” was in 1930’s, 1940’s or 1950’s?
A good read Andy is Arctic Ice by N. N. Zubov, Naval Captain, Professor, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, written in the late 1930’s early ’40’s, found here:
http://archive.org/stream/arcticice00zubo#page/470/mode/2up
It contains heaps of graphs, temp data, ice area, etc. In the introduction it states:
The total ice area for the whole Arctic Ocean in winter reaches 10,800,000 square km……..Thus, by the end of the polar summer, the ice area of the Arctic Ocean decreases to 8,000,000 square km, due to melting.
From page 470 there is some great info in section 162. Warming of the Arctic, but just above this is this observation:
Worthy of particular attention is the fact that in 1943 all the anomalies noted were favorable for navigation, that they extended to all seas, and that in actuality navigation was extremely easy in 1943 along the entire course of the Northern Sea Route. The total area of clear water at the end of the navigational period in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chuckchee Seas amounted to almost 2,000,000 square km which is unprecedented in the history of the Arctic. The ice opposition of the Kara and Chuckchee Seas (which was mentioned in Section 156) did not take place in 1943.
Enjoy.
thanks…found the book on the internet and bought it
linked your post over on WUWT too
A lot of study has been going into linking earlier observations to our current dataset. Here’s an intro:
http://judithcurry.com/2013/04/10/historic-variations-in-arctic-sea-ice-part-ii-1920-1950/
http://mclean.ch/climate/Arctic_1920_40.htm
The problems are obvious: Early measurements are often local and spotty, they do not measure ice thickness, etc. Nonetheless there is an International Ice Charting working group putting together a Back to 1870 Project. It will be based mostly on a correlation of these sources:
AARI gridded data, 1930-1970s [1990s]
Danish Meteorological Institute yearbooks,(DMI)1870s-1960s
ACSYS sea ice databank (North Atlantic ice edges, 1750-1966
National Research Council of Canada (B. Hill), Newfoundland ice extent, 1810-2000+
Alaskan ship reports (whaling and others) K. Wood and Bockstoce/Mahoney/Eicken, 1850-early 1900s
HadISST-1 and coordination with new HadISST-2
One period will be studied extensively, the pronounced warming period of 1920-1940. We await their overview.
Safe to say, though, that there hasn’t been a time like this in recent centuries. Whalers have been combing the Arctic since before 1800, and Russian fur traders since the Middle Ages. None have reported anything close to either a Northeast Passage or a Northwest Passage. The Arctic was much more a bog block of ice than it is today.
Whalers have been combing the Arctic since before 1800, and Russian fur traders since the Middle Ages. None have reported anything close to either a Northeast Passage or a Northwest Passage. The Arctic was much more a bog block of ice than it is today.
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wasn’t that called the LIttle Ice Age
The NW Passage had only been navigated twice, both times in the early 1940s. But it opened up partially only in 2005, and opened completely for the first time ever in 2007. So at the close of the Little Ice Age it was still thoroughly frozen.
Pretty much the same is true of the NE Passage:
http://www.examiner.com/article/arctic-passage-open-without-ice-breakers-first-time-history
That was before Mikey Mann flattened out the MWP and LIA using his Nature Tricks.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5jZBDDPldG8/TPL6BqND3QI/AAAAAAAAAYY/SymzofiT0ZE/s1600/Mann%252B%2526%252BMWP.jpg
This is probably the wrong blog to spread bogus NW Passage information
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/northwest-passage/
The NW Passage had only been navigated twice, both times in the early 1940s.
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..and that was before carbon pollution
“The NW Passage had only been navigated twice, both times in the early 1940s.
====
..and that was before carbon pollution”
And before nuclear ice breakers.
Thanks for the scholarship, Steve. Amundsen did in fact traverse the NW Passage in a 70-foot vessel. However his feat was not to be repeated until recent years:
“Amundsen had achieved in a small boat what could not be accomplished in a larger vessel. But while his achievement ranks as one of the key milestones in the exploration of the Arctic, the discovery of a passage for commercial shipping (the original motivation for finding the North-West Passage) was still out of reach. It would take the effect of global warming to open up the possibility of deeper routes in 2007.”
http://www.rmg.co.uk/explore/sea-and-ships/in-depth/north-west-passage/exploration-adventure-and-tragedy/roald-amundsens-expedition-1903-06
Nordenskjold’s voyage to the northeast, though, where according to the full text of your article he was to reach as far as Novaya Zemlya and Cape Severo, is far from constituting a complete passage in the northeast. This is only as far as innumerable Siberian fur traders were able to get in their heyday– the 1500s and 1600s. They were all forced to traverse across the Yamal Peninsula and resume only a very short way onward during the summer months. Check Google Earth for these locations.
Their trading station was on the east side of the Yamal, and furs gathered there had to come from overland. And quite a boom town it was, in its time.
I stand corrected. Nordenskjold did indeed reach Bering Strait in that expedition (1879).
Safe to say, though, that michael hasn’t been this old in recent months. His mom has been combing the family album since before last Thursday, and his big sister since the middle of last month. Neither have reported anything close to michaels current age or height. michael was much younger than he is today.
Panic. 😆
Hey Michael,
How do you think it got the name “Passage”? Because no one could ever passage through it?
Still an idiot.
If it keeps up the current melt rate, it will have 2 million more square km of ice than last year. Isn’t CO2 just the most amazing molecule? It can melt ice and can freeze ice. And Julia Gilliard’s carbon tax froze the world in just 12 months! She’ll have a lot of kudos from the 97% of “scientists” that she single handledly saved the world. 79 days to go.
I leave it to you to decide whether Arctic ice extent has never been greater than it is today, or whether it depends on how much of the record you omit. For “clarity”:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47
Australia has decided that the carbon tax is a crock and is about to send it into oblivion at the September election along with Julia and her communist apparatchiks because the Australian majority woke up to the lies and deceit, especially on climate change. We really don’t like liars. Skeptical Science is a watermelon site for alarmist propaganda, bad choice. And almost 2 million sq km more ice is an inconvenient fact for alarmists, making them even more alarmed. It’s just so alarming!!!!
You didn’t even open the page to look at the data, did you? This is a sad state of affairs, when you won’t even consider any evidence unless it comes from one of your approved websites.
Look at the graph, consider the source the information being presented is based on (“The data (green) are the average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012, with linear trends for the short time periods…” etc.), then offer me an informed comment. A lot of solid measurements have been combined to form that graph. I think it’s right.
The problem you’re encountering enters when they include information prior to 2007. Then the point being made over and over again on this site (the graph at the top of the page, which we’ve seen nearly a dozen times now) looks less like a long-term trend and more like a blip. In fact a blip that follows a pattern. Global temp increases have been going up in a stepped progression, not in a straight line every single year.
Why link to an anthropogenic global warming alarmist website? haven’t they had over 30 years and a ton of money to make a convincing point?
I very much doubt that site has anything to add that we don’t already know about.
Are you saying their 32-year baseline is inferior to this website’s six-year baseline, from 2007 through 2012? And that the six-year baseline more accurately reflects long-term trends?
Why not see where they got the data they used to construct their chart? (“The data (green) are the average of the NASA GISS, NOAA NCDC, and HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature anomaly datasets from January 1970 through November 2012…” etc.) I can’t force you to open your eyes and just look at the chart. But I think it would help.
Michael,
Are you arguing that sea ice globally is declining because it is actually increasing!
Are you saying that when Arctic sea ice decreases during summer months it has any meaning to long-term trends of sea ice globally? It does not!
Are you saying that an increase of Arctic sea ice or the general variability of sea ice is caused by a statistical temperature anomaly? it is not, it is caused by the seasonal tilt of the earths axis.
Not just thirty years and obscene amounts of money, they had every media outlet until conservatives showed up with one channel, they had every university, they had the UN and every government, they had pop culture, they had every scientific organization, they had every peer reviewed journal, they had zero opposition for years, and when skeptics did get a voice they refused to debate.
Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! 😆
Sparks, I have only one comment: your reply is gibberish. Are you even aware that it does not address anything I’ve said here, and in fact doesn’t mean a thing? It’s like a machine response. It’s like a monkey with a typewriter. It’s a desperate last stab. Read it again:
Are you arguing that sea ice globally is declining because it is actually increasing!
Are you saying that when Arctic sea ice decreases during summer months it has any meaning to long-term trends of sea ice globally? It does not!
Are you saying that an increase of Arctic sea ice or the general variability of sea ice is caused by a statistical temperature anomaly? it is not, it is caused by the seasonal tilt of the earths axis.
Answer to all three: no. Not even close.
Folks, folks, folks – please do NOT respond to the silly troll michael . He is a brain-dead, deeply religious anthropogenic global warming alarmist. He is EVEN so unaware, if not dishonest, to call his website “skepticalscience”!!! Whatever you do, do NOT go to his website – he is only TROLLING for hits on his silly waste of pixels, which very, very few people bother to checkout.
How sad to be a follower.
oh come on michael….there’s no need to put yourself down like that
you can’t help it
How sad it must be to be a racist hater – To wit; “…like a monkey with a typewriter.”
I’m expecting you will be apologizing to Sparks if you have any sense of decency at all.
Monkeys are not a race, Hugh. They are a species.
Possibly you’ve never heard the comment that if you had an infinite number of monkeys typing on an infinite number of typewriters, given enough time one of them would type the collected works of Shakespeare? And several millions of them would have typed the complete works, but with one typo somewhere in them?
Bloggers and their followers, myself included, are set upon a path to either verify or disprove that conjecture.
LOL:
Yeah the OZ carbon Tax and the NZ ETS saved the World.
Or It could just be all the coal OZ and NZ export to China. . 🙂
Met. Office prediction anywhere between 1.9 and 4.9 – what precision!
That range of predictions is simultaneously the lowest and joint 3rd highest.
You can probably bank on >5 then. 🙂
OT
Summer snow 3 days ago in Northern China.
http://dawn.com/news/1019774/video-summer-snow-falls-in-northwest-china
They will melt the Arctic ice with those “four Hiroshima bombs a second” that Kook was blabbering about the other day on the Guardian. Except they’d need to be real Hiroshima bombs to melt the ice, not imaginary Kook ones. Also it would get rid of all those pesky nukes that the US, Russia, UK, France and China have. Two birds!
Didn’t some crazy scientist want to do that in the 70’s?
All the arm chair ning nong deniers should get on a plane and fly up to alaska/arctic circle and take a first hand look. but they wont do this because seeing it with their own eyes means they will have to admit how wrong they are. So instead of seeing for themselves they mash information into the reasoning they want, sit in their safe seats and spruke junk.
So disappointing to continue to read these dull comments. Did any one know that parts of Alaska reached 90 degrees F in June. Why would this be? Did you know that the USA has recorded the higgest ever land temperature in June also. why would this be?
global warming is the issue, driven by increased co2 concentrations. Climate change is the consequence and extreme weather the daily effect.
All you ning nong deniers go and buy a house on the gold coast – plenty for sale and very cheap too. Wonder why that is?
Do you believe that Alaska is covered with sea ice?
Climate change alarmists have convinced the Gold Coast council to ban redevelopment of some beach front property. But it will take a few thousand years before sea level rise before anything happens and Antarctica with 90% of the worlds Ice is growing, not melting. I reckon the council are Ning Nongs for listening to alarmists and Tim Flannery.
“Did you know that the USA has recorded the higgest ever land temperature in June”
Yep. Death Valley. Big deal, noone lives there.
Climates change. Sun rises and sets, Moon too. Planets cirlce the Sun. To everything there is a season…