Monsoons Firing Up In The Southwest

12 Responses to Monsoons Firing Up In The Southwest

1. Dave says:

   June 26, 2013 at 6:03 pm

   If you click on the link and scroll down, the map showing precipitation as % of normal, its is practically solid red in the west (precip only 25% of normal) outside NM and Colorado. For much of the midwest its only 50% of normal.

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   • stevengoddard says:

     June 26, 2013 at 6:08 pm

     And during the second week, the flow of moisture increases. Typical July weather in the southwest.

     Reply
2. Jambon-X says:

   June 26, 2013 at 8:03 pm

   5-day and now new 7-day “official” predictions of total precipitation accumulation

   http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

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   • tckev says:

     June 26, 2013 at 9:35 pm

     ‘Official’ or otherwise is immaterial, how accurate is all that matters.

     Reply
   • miked1947 says:

     June 27, 2013 at 5:03 am

     Jambon:
     NOAA can not predict the weather tomorrow with any accuracy. What makes you think they can get 7 days?

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     • T.O.O says:

       June 27, 2013 at 5:10 am

       miked,
       A casino cannot predict what the next roll of the dice will be. What makes you think they can make money?

       Reply
       • miked1947 says:

         June 27, 2013 at 5:14 am

         TOO:
         You are asking the wrong person that question! I KNOW why they can make money. That was part of my job!
       • miked1947 says:

         June 27, 2013 at 5:16 am

         TOO:
         BTW! understanding NOAA’s activities and capabilities was also part of my job.
       • tckev says:

         June 27, 2013 at 7:28 am

         The die only have 6 side and hopefully unweighted, therefore the statistics of this scenario is trivial.
         With weather not all the variables are known, the ones that are known are affected by other random effects (that can be close coupled, or loose coupled, or uncoupled) some with feedback some without, often it is a combination of all these thing. That is why knowledge of your local climate and past weather always makes for better forecasting, and statistical modeling have such a poor record.
     • Dave says:

       June 27, 2013 at 5:44 am

       Good point – almost every single day for the past week they come on the radio where I am and say high of 100 degrees and then it turns out to be 93-95. They never get called on their endless string of errors.

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       • miked1947 says:

         June 27, 2013 at 5:55 am

         I am in the second week of hazardous weather advisories for normal conditions. All they can say is rain is possible and it may be severe! I do not worry about they claim the temperature will be.
       • stevengoddard says:

         June 27, 2013 at 5:55 am

         It looks to me like you have a lot of rain headed your way early next week.