Not much.
RRTM shows that the tropics receive 398 watts/m² downwelling longwave radiation. If there was no CO2, that would only drop to 392 watts/m²
In the tropics CO2 is only responsible for 1.5% of the greenhouse effect, and water vapor is responsible for almost all of the other 98.5%.
But it is worse than it seems. Almost all of CO2’s contribution is in the first 30 PPM. Additional man-made CO2 has essentially no effect on the energy balance in the tropics.
Satellite temperatures show that there has been almost no warming in the tropics.
Incident solar, after reflected solar is subtracted, only averages 242 W/m^2. That is the only power source for warming the Earth and its atmosphere. As I pointed out way back in October 2010, “No part of the ‘global energy budget’ [to wit, that “398 W/m^2 downwelling longwave radiation”] can be greater than the incident energy [242].” Conservation of energy, the most basic of all physical laws, absolutely forbids it–and any competent student of physics, much less any expert, should be able to instantly see, from looking at the Kiehl-Trenberth energy budget shown at the link I gave just above, that the supposed huge loop of energy shown between atmosphere and surface cannot be real; it implies a free-energy pump at work between the two (and that fantasy pump is clearly what constitutes the consensus greenhouse effect). So-called “upwelling” and “downwelling” longwave radiation are unphysical misunderstandings and bogus terms, insofar as any actual heating, of anything, is concerned.
So it should come as no surprise to anyone that, in fact, there is no CO2 global warming greenhouse effect at all. Neither supposed “downwelling longwave radiation” nor “upwelling longwave radiation” have any warming effect, on either the surface or the atmosphere–therefore, the radiation transfer theory, as applied in climate science, is false. As I have written over and over, in the last 2 and 1/2 years, this should have been realized, by any competent climate scientist, over 20 years ago, when the Venus temperature and pressure data was obtained by the Magellan spacecraft. And it certainly should have been understood and accepted by now, by everyone daring to write in the climate science debate, since I performed that Venus/Earth analysis.
Good news for the rest of the planet is that if we ‘Act Now’ by removing evil man’s contribution to global CO² of 0.00117%, we can stop runaway global warming, mass starvation, political upheaval, economic collapse and ALL extreme weather forever.
Then, how to deal with mother nature’s outrageous 97% contribution to atmospheric CO² carbon pollution?
The seasonal north meets south have a hair over 100 exceptions throughout recent history (past 22,000 years) and the coming years will be more equal than others.
The mid-tropospheric conditions are pointing to a switch in the AMO with the Indian Ocean Dipole and Antarctic Stream staying in the cool mode and the AO definitely remaining out of phase with the MEI as it has not been over the past 35 years.
When considering the actual measured GCM minus the modeling, but adding the solar dynamics and null PDO, we are returning to 1960 weather worldwide, which by the way, has already arrived!
How long do you think it will take for the average temperatures to actually reflect this trend?
The air now is too dry (in comparison with the 60’s) and there are strong oscillations in local weather in many places. Also, solar radiations are now much lower than then with a tendency to be even lower, would we still have the weather of the 60’s in this case in your view?
Sorry to ask too much, but why “null PDO”? Are you expecting the PDO to end the present positive phase abruptly?
err: .. PDO to end the present negative phase …
Baffles me how they think humankinds contribution is awe inspiringly powerful but when one lake out of 100’s out gasses at one time over 170000ppm/v it is week because it is natural.So many have closed minds!
If there was no CO2 the tropics would turn into a desert. All the plants would die.
Exactly Z E R O !
In FACT, they would warm ever so slightly. CO2 does NOT act as a warming agent, it acts as a COOLING agent. CO2, the most widely used industrial coolant on the planet… duh….
It cools the stratosphere.
No, satellite measurements show exactly N O warming in the tropics, period…