Someone suggested that the divergence between measured US temperatures and NCDC published US temperatures is due to Time Of Observation Bias.
I tested that out by comparing only versus stations which took morning or night readings on July 15, 1936. These stations should be biased cold in the 1930s, and produce more warming than the full set of stations. It doesn’t make much difference. The frequency of 90 degree days is still very low in 2014.
There is still a hockey stick of divergence between the measured and reported US temperatures.
Over the last 20 years, the TOBS adjustment should be a downwards adjustment. The 1936 afternoon stations are warming faster than the 1936 morning stations. USHCN TOBS adjustments do the exact opposite and make the problem worse.
TOBS does not account for the discrepancy between measured and reported US temperatures. Here is the list of morning/night stations
FAIRHOPE 2 NE AL AJO AZ CHILDS AZ FT VALLEY AZ GRAND CANYON NP 2 AZ LEES FERRY AZ MIAMI AZ PARKER AZ PRESCOTT AZ ROOSEVELT 1 WNW AZ SACATON AZ SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C AZ SAINT JOHNS AZ TUCSON WFO AZ WICKENBURG AZ WILLIAMS AZ YUMA CITRUS STN AZ GRAVETTE AR BERKELEY CA BLYTHE CA CEDARVILLE CA CHULA VISTA CA CUYAMACA CA DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM CA FAIRMONT CA FARMVILLE 2 N VA HANFORD 1 S CA HEALDSBURG CA INDEPENDENCE CA LODI CA MERCED CA NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR CA ORLAND CA ORLEANS CA PASO ROBLES CA QUINCY CA SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY CA SUSANVILLE 2SW CA TAHOE CITY CA TEJON RANCHO CA TUSTIN IRVINE RCH CA WILLOWS 6 W CA YREKA CA FT COLLINS CO FT MORGAN CO TRINIDAD CO MILFORD 2 SE DE APALACHICOLA AIRPOR FL BARTOW FL BELLE GLADE FL FT LAUDERDALE FL FT PIERCE FL LAKE CITY 2 E FL OCALA FL PERRINE 4W FL TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P FL BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE GA EASTMAN 1 W GA GLENNVILLE 3NW GA HAWKINSVILLE GA MILLEDGEVILLE GA NEWNAN 5N GA QUITMAN 2 NW GA TIFTON GA WEST POINT GA ARROWROCK DAM ID CAMBRIDGE ID DWORSHAK FISH HATCH ID FENN RS ID HOLLISTER ID KELLOGG ID OAKLEY ID PAYETTE ID SALMON-KSRA ID MCLEANSBORO IL WALNUT IL DELPHI 2 N IN PAOLI IN SALEM IN SHOALS 8 S IN CHARLES CITY IA FOREST CITY 2 NNE IA COLUMBUS KS INDEPENDENCE KS SAINT FRANCIS KS WAKEENEY KS FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN KY ALEXANDRIA LA BASTROP LA PLAIN DEALING 4 W LA EASTPORT ME LEWISTON ME WOODLAND ME CUMBERLAND 2 MD MILLINGTON 1 SE MD PRINCESS ANNE MD AMHERST MA BEDFORD MA GREAT BARRINGTON 2N MA LAWRENCE MA PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON MA ALLEGAN 5NE MI FAYETTE 4 SW MI MIDLAND MI CHASKA MN DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE MN MORRIS WC EXP STN MN NEW ULM 2 SE MN PIPESTONE MN CANTON 4N MS GREENVILLE MS KOSCIUSKO MS NATCHEZ MS PONTOTOC EXP STN MS STATE UNIV MS APPLETON CITY MO CLINTON MO FARMINGTON MO JEFFERSON CITY WTP MO LAMAR 2W MO LEBANON 2W MO LEES SUMMIT REED WR MO LEXINGTON 3E MO MEXICO MO MOBERLY MO MTN GROVE 2 N MO SPICKARD 7 W MO UNIONVILLE MO ANACONDA MT CHINOOK MT FORKS 4 NNE MT FT ASSINNIBOINE MT FORTINE 1 N MT HUNTLEY EXP STN MT KALISPELL GLACIER AP MT MOCCASIN EXP STN MT PLEVNA MT ALLIANCE 1WNW NE ATKINSON 3SW NE BEATRICE 1N NE BROKEN BOW 2 W NE CRETE NE FAIRBURY 5S NE FAIRMONT NE FRANKLIN NE IMPERIAL NE LODGEPOLE NE NORTH LOUP NE OAKDALE NE PURDUM NE WEEPING WATER NE AUSTIN #2 NV FALLON EXP STN NV MCGILL NV MINA NV WELLS NV BOONTON 1 SE NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W NJ MOORESTOWN NJ FT SUMNER NM LAS VEGAS WWTP NM MTN PARK NM TUCUMCARI 4 NE NM TULAROSA NM BATAVIA NY ELMIRA NY GLENHAM NY INDIAN LAKE 2SW NY ITHACA CORNELL UNIV NY LAKE PLACID 2 S NY LOWVILLE NY OSWEGO EAST NY SETAUKET STRONG NY STILLWATER RSVR NY TROY L&D NY TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT NY WALDEN 1 ESE NY WALES NY WEST POINT NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W NY ALBEMARLE NC ELIZABETH CITY NC KINSTON 7 SE NC SMITHFIELD NC TARBORO 1 S NC WAYNESVILLE 1 E NC BOTTINEAU ND CROSBY ND DICKINSON EXP STN ND DUNN CENTER 1E ND FT YATES 4 SW ND FULLERTON 1 ESE ND JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP ND LANGDON EXP FARM ND LISBON ND MANDAN EXP STN ND NAPOLEON ND NEW ENGLAND ND RICHARDTON ABBEY ND FINDLAY WPCC OH HILLSBORO OH BEND OR BROOKINGS 2 SE OR CONDON OR FREMONT 5 NW OR HEPPNER OR MC MINNVILLE OR PILOT ROCK 1 SE OR ROSEBURG KQEN OR TILLAMOOK OR VALE OR FRANKLIN PA NEW CASTLE 1 N PA PALMERTON PA READING 4 NNW PA RIDGWAY PA STROUDSBURG PA ANDERSON SC CHERAW SC COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC SC CONWAY SC DARLINGTON SC GREENWOOD SC KINGSTREE SC ORANGEBURG 2 SC SUMMERVILLE 4W SC YEMASSEE SC DUPREE SD FAULKTON 1 NW SD FORESTBURG 4 NNE SD GANN VALLEY 4NW SD MILBANK 4 NW SD OAHE DAM SD RAPID CITY 4NW SD COPPERHILL TN CROSSVILLE ED & RESE TN DOVER 1 W TN MURFREESBORO 5 N TN NEWPORT 1 NW TN UNION CITY TN ALBANY TX ALICE TX ALPINE TX BALLINGER 2 NW TX BALMORHEA TX BLANCO TX BOYS RANCH TX BRENHAM TX BROWNWOOD 2ENE TX CATARINA TX CORSICANA TX CROSBYTON TX DANEVANG 1 W TX DUBLIN 2SE TX EAGLE PASS 3N TX ENCINAL TX FALFURRIAS TX GREENVILLE KGVL RADI TX HASKELL TX LAMPASAS TX LLANO TX LULING TX MCCAMEY TX MEXIA TX MIAMI TX MULESHOE #1 TX NEW BRAUNFELS TX PECOS TX QUANAH 2 SW TX RIO GRANDE CITY TX SNYDER TX TEMPLE TX WEATHERFORD TX ALTON UT DESERET UT ESCALANTE UT FILLMORE UT FT DUCHESNE UT HEBER UT LEVAN UT LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV UT PANGUITCH UT ST GEORGE UT SCIPIO UT UTAH LAKE LEHI UT BREMO BLUFF VA CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W VA DALE ENTERPRISE VA PENNINGTON GAP VA PIEDMONT RSCH STN VA ROCKY MT VA STAUNTON WATER TRMTM VA WILLIAMSBURG 2 N VA BLAINE WA CEDAR LAKE WA LONG BEACH EXP STN WA ODESSA WA POMEROY WA PORT ANGELES WA PULLMAN 2 NW WA RAYMOND 2 S WA RITZVILLE 1 SSE WA SUNNYSIDE WA WATERVILLE WA WENATCHEE WA WILBUR WA SPENCER WV HANCOCK EXP FARM WI MANITOWOC WI ALTA 1 NNW WY COLONY WY GREEN RIVER WY MIDWEST WY NEWCASTLE WY SARATOGA WY SHERIDAN FLD STA WY WORLAND WY YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO WY
NCDC technical spokesman replies –
“Awgh, you jest went an’ cherry-picked them thare un-adjusted temper’tures.
Why’d you do that? Eh? That’s why’d you dun got the wrong answer. “
Why don’t you work with someone like Judith Curry to get a paper published?
Steve’s work is already published.
Steve, it is TOBS … Total Official Bull Sh!t
It is all in the definition …
Apparently they use a TOBS algorithm that has nothing to do with any particular stations or times, but instead does some kind of crazy raw data analysis to come up with which temperatures “should” be wrong, just based on patterns in the data. If that sounds like a recipe for confirmation bias, well…
It is interesting, to me at least, how anyone can say reducing all of a year’s weather to one little number, the “average” temperature for the the year, makes any sense. I have put together a few graphs, using raw data — as raw as I can get, anyway — to show what the weather in my town has been like for the last 36 years, compared to the average from around 1902 to 2012 taken from COOP data.
http://wp.me/p4MyHW-32
Comparing one year to the next on the basis of one synthesized, homogenized and very possibly outright bogus number from NOAA is like taking a panoramic photograph and reducing it to 1 or 2 pixels and then claiming it shows everything the original does.
The only reason any of them messes with the old data is because using it as is doesn’t show what the message is supposed to be, so they have to justify changing it until it does show what they want it to show.