There are 318 US HCN stations which recorded their min/max readings during morning or night on July 15, 1936. These stations should have an artificial warming bias, because of TOBS double counting of low temperatures in the 1930’s.
Like the full set of stations, these stations show little or no warming since 1920, which tells us that the effect of TOBS is minimal – and that the US is not on a long term warming trend.
List of stations used in this analysis :
FAIRHOPE 2 NE AL USC00012813 AJO AZ USC00020080 CHILDS AZ USC00021614 FT VALLEY AZ USC00023160 GRAND CANYON NP 2 AZ USC00023596 LEES FERRY AZ USC00024849 MIAMI AZ USC00025512 PARKER AZ USC00026250 PRESCOTT AZ USC00026796 ROOSEVELT 1 WNW AZ USC00027281 SACATON AZ USC00027370 SAFFORD AGRICULTRL C AZ USC00027390 SAINT JOHNS AZ USC00027435 TUCSON WFO AZ USC00028815 WICKENBURG AZ USC00029287 WILLIAMS AZ USC00029359 YUMA CITRUS STN AZ USC00029652 GRAVETTE AR USC00032930 BERKELEY CA USC00040693 BLYTHE CA USC00040924 CEDARVILLE CA USC00041614 CHULA VISTA CA USC00041758 CUYAMACA CA USC00042239 DAVIS 2 WSW EXP FARM CA USC00042294 FAIRMONT CA USC00042941 FARMVILLE 2 N VA USC00442941 HANFORD 1 S CA USC00043747 HEALDSBURG CA USC00043875 INDEPENDENCE CA USC00044232 LODI CA USC00045032 MERCED CA USC00045532 NEWPORT BEACH HARBOR CA USC00046175 ORLAND CA USC00046506 ORLEANS CA USC00046508 PASO ROBLES CA USC00046730 QUINCY CA USC00047195 SAN LUIS OBISPO POLY CA USC00047851 SUSANVILLE 2SW CA USC00048702 TAHOE CITY CA USC00048758 TEJON RANCHO CA USC00048839 TUSTIN IRVINE RCH CA USC00049087 WILLOWS 6 W CA USC00049699 YREKA CA USC00049866 FT COLLINS CO USC00053005 FT MORGAN CO USC00053038 TRINIDAD CO USC00058429 MILFORD 2 SE DE USC00075915 APALACHICOLA AIRPOR FL USC00080211 BARTOW FL USC00080478 BELLE GLADE FL USC00080611 FT LAUDERDALE FL USC00083163 FT PIERCE FL USC00083207 LAKE CITY 2 E FL USC00084731 OCALA FL USC00086414 PERRINE 4W FL USC00087020 TARPON SPGS SEWAGE P FL USC00088824 BAINBRIDGE INTL PAPE GA USC00090586 EASTMAN 1 W GA USC00092966 GLENNVILLE 3NW GA USC00093754 HAWKINSVILLE GA USC00094170 MILLEDGEVILLE GA USC00095874 NEWNAN 5N GA USC00096335 QUITMAN 2 NW GA USC00097276 TIFTON GA USC00098703 WEST POINT GA USC00099291 ARROWROCK DAM ID USC00100448 CAMBRIDGE ID USC00101408 DWORSHAK FISH HATCH ID USC00102845 FENN RS ID USC00103143 HOLLISTER ID USC00104295 KELLOGG ID USC00104831 OAKLEY ID USC00106542 PAYETTE ID USC00106891 SALMON-KSRA ID USC00108080 MCLEANSBORO IL USC00115515 WALNUT IL USC00118916 DELPHI 2 N IN USC00122149 PAOLI IN USC00126705 SALEM IN USC00127755 SHOALS 8 S IN USC00128036 CHARLES CITY IA USC00131402 FOREST CITY 2 NNE IA USC00132977 COLUMBUS KS USC00141740 INDEPENDENCE KS USC00143954 SAINT FRANCIS KS USC00147093 WAKEENEY KS USC00148495 FRANKFORT DOWNTOWN KY USC00153028 ALEXANDRIA LA USC00160098 BASTROP LA USC00160537 PLAIN DEALING 4 W LA USC00167344 EASTPORT ME USC00172426 LEWISTON ME USC00174566 WOODLAND ME USC00179891 CUMBERLAND 2 MD USC00182282 MILLINGTON 1 SE MD USC00185985 PRINCESS ANNE MD USC00187330 AMHERST MA USC00190120 BEDFORD MA USC00190535 GREAT BARRINGTON 2N MA USC00193213 LAWRENCE MA USC00194105 PLYMOUTH-KINGSTON MA USC00196486 ALLEGAN 5NE MI USC00200128 FAYETTE 4 SW MI USC00202737 MIDLAND MI USC00205434 CHASKA MN USC00211465 DETROIT LAKES 1 NNE MN USC00212142 MORRIS WC EXP STN MN USC00215638 NEW ULM 2 SE MN USC00215887 PIPESTONE MN USC00216565 CANTON 4N MS USC00221389 GREENVILLE MS USC00223605 KOSCIUSKO MS USC00224776 NATCHEZ MS USC00226177 PONTOTOC EXP STN MS USC00227111 STATE UNIV MS USC00228374 APPLETON CITY MO USC00230204 CLINTON MO USC00231711 FARMINGTON MO USC00232809 JEFFERSON CITY WTP MO USC00234271 LAMAR 2W MO USC00234705 LEBANON 2W MO USC00234825 LEES SUMMIT REED WR MO USC00234850 LEXINGTON 3E MO USC00234904 MEXICO MO USC00235541 MOBERLY MO USC00235671 MTN GROVE 2 N MO USC00235834 SPICKARD 7 W MO USC00237963 UNIONVILLE MO USC00238523 ANACONDA MT USC00240199 CHINOOK MT USC00241722 FORKS 4 NNE MT USC00243089 FT ASSINNIBOINE MT USC00243110 FORTINE 1 N MT USC00243139 HUNTLEY EXP STN MT USC00244345 KALISPELL GLACIER AP MT USC00244558 MOCCASIN EXP STN MT USC00245761 PLEVNA MT USC00246601 ALLIANCE 1WNW NE USC00250130 ATKINSON 3SW NE USC00250420 BEATRICE 1N NE USC00250622 BROKEN BOW 2 W NE USC00251200 CRETE NE USC00252020 FAIRBURY 5S NE USC00252820 FAIRMONT NE USC00252840 FRANKLIN NE USC00253035 IMPERIAL NE USC00254110 LODGEPOLE NE USC00254900 NORTH LOUP NE USC00256040 OAKDALE NE USC00256135 PURDUM NE USC00256970 WEEPING WATER NE USC00259090 AUSTIN #2 NV USC00260507 FALLON EXP STN NV USC00262780 MCGILL NV USC00264950 MINA NV USC00265168 WELLS NV USC00268988 BOONTON 1 SE NJ USC00280907 INDIAN MILLS 2 W NJ USC00284229 MOORESTOWN NJ USC00285728 FT SUMNER NM USC00293294 LAS VEGAS WWTP NM USC00294862 MTN PARK NM USC00295960 TUCUMCARI 4 NE NM USC00299156 TULAROSA NM USC00299165 BATAVIA NY USC00300443 ELMIRA NY USC00302610 GLENHAM NY USC00303259 INDIAN LAKE 2SW NY USC00304102 ITHACA CORNELL UNIV NY USC00304174 LAKE PLACID 2 S NY USC00304555 LOWVILLE NY USC00304912 OSWEGO EAST NY USC00306314 SETAUKET STRONG NY USC00307633 STILLWATER RSVR NY USC00308248 TROY L D NY USC00308600 TUPPER LAKE SUNMOUNT NY USC00308631 WALDEN 1 ESE NY USC00308906 WALES NY USC00308910 WEST POINT NY USC00309292 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W NY USC00309670 ALBEMARLE NC USC00310090 ELIZABETH CITY NC USC00312719 KINSTON 7 SE NC USC00314684 SMITHFIELD NC USC00317994 TARBORO 1 S NC USC00318500 WAYNESVILLE 1 E NC USC00319147 BOTTINEAU ND USC00320941 CROSBY ND USC00321871 DICKINSON EXP STN ND USC00322188 DUNN CENTER 1E ND USC00322365 FT YATES 4 SW ND USC00323207 FULLERTON 1 ESE ND USC00323287 JAMESTOWN STATE HOSP ND USC00324418 LANGDON EXP FARM ND USC00324958 LISBON ND USC00325220 MANDAN EXP STN ND USC00325479 NAPOLEON ND USC00326255 NEW ENGLAND ND USC00326315 RICHARDTON ABBEY ND USC00327530 FINDLAY WPCC OH USC00332791 HILLSBORO OH USC00333758 BEND OR USC00350694 BROOKINGS 2 SE OR USC00351055 CONDON OR USC00351765 FREMONT 5 NW OR USC00353095 HEPPNER OR USC00353827 MC MINNVILLE OR USC00355384 PILOT ROCK 1 SE OR USC00356634 ROSEBURG KQEN OR USC00357331 TILLAMOOK OR USC00358494 VALE OR USC00358797 FRANKLIN PA USC00363028 NEW CASTLE 1 N PA USC00366233 PALMERTON PA USC00366689 READING 4 NNW PA USC00367322 RIDGWAY PA USC00367477 STROUDSBURG PA USC00368596 ANDERSON SC USC00380165 CHERAW SC USC00381588 COLUMBIA UNIV OF SC SC USC00381944 CONWAY SC USC00381997 DARLINGTON SC USC00382260 GREENWOOD SC USC00383754 KINGSTREE SC USC00384753 ORANGEBURG 2 SC USC00386527 SUMMERVILLE 4W SC USC00388426 YEMASSEE SC USC00389469 DUPREE SD USC00392429 FAULKTON 1 NW SD USC00392927 FORESTBURG 4 NNE SD USC00393029 GANN VALLEY 4NW SD USC00393217 MILBANK 4 NW SD USC00395536 OAHE DAM SD USC00396170 RAPID CITY 4NW SD USC00396947 COPPERHILL TN USC00402024 CROSSVILLE ED RESE TN USC00402202 DOVER 1 W TN USC00402589 MURFREESBORO 5 N TN USC00406371 NEWPORT 1 NW TN USC00406534 UNION CITY TN USC00409219 ALBANY TX USC00410120 ALICE TX USC00410144 ALPINE TX USC00410174 BALLINGER 2 NW TX USC00410493 BALMORHEA TX USC00410498 BLANCO TX USC00410832 BOYS RANCH TX USC00411000 BRENHAM TX USC00411048 BROWNWOOD 2ENE TX USC00411138 CATARINA TX USC00411528 CORSICANA TX USC00412019 CROSBYTON TX USC00412121 DANEVANG 1 W TX USC00412266 DUBLIN 2SE TX USC00412598 EAGLE PASS 3N TX USC00412679 ENCINAL TX USC00412906 FALFURRIAS TX USC00413063 GREENVILLE KGVL RADI TX USC00413734 HASKELL TX USC00413992 LAMPASAS TX USC00415018 LLANO TX USC00415272 LULING TX USC00415429 MCCAMEY TX USC00415707 MEXIA TX USC00415869 MIAMI TX USC00415875 MULESHOE #1 TX USC00416135 NEW BRAUNFELS TX USC00416276 PECOS TX USC00416892 QUANAH 2 SW TX USC00417336 RIO GRANDE CITY TX USC00417622 SNYDER TX USC00418433 TEMPLE TX USC00418910 WEATHERFORD TX USC00419532 ALTON UT USC00420086 DESERET UT USC00422101 ESCALANTE UT USC00422592 FILLMORE UT USC00422828 FT DUCHESNE UT USC00422996 HEBER UT USC00423809 LEVAN UT USC00425065 LOGAN UTAH ST UNIV UT USC00425186 PANGUITCH UT USC00426601 ST GEORGE UT USC00427516 SCIPIO UT USC00427714 UTAH LAKE LEHI UT USC00428973 BREMO BLUFF VA USC00440993 CHARLOTTESVILLE 2W VA USC00441593 DALE ENTERPRISE VA USC00442208 PENNINGTON GAP VA USC00446626 PIEDMONT RSCH STN VA USC00446712 ROCKY MT VA USC00447338 STAUNTON WATER TRMTM VA USC00448062 WILLIAMSBURG 2 N VA USC00449151 BLAINE WA USC00450729 CEDAR LAKE WA USC00451233 LONG BEACH EXP STN WA USC00454748 ODESSA WA USC00456039 POMEROY WA USC00456610 PORT ANGELES WA USC00456624 PULLMAN 2 NW WA USC00456789 RAYMOND 2 S WA USC00456914 RITZVILLE 1 SSE WA USC00457059 SUNNYSIDE WA USC00458207 WATERVILLE WA USC00459012 WENATCHEE WA USC00459074 WILBUR WA USC00459238 SPENCER WV USC00468384 HANCOCK EXP FARM WI USC00473405 MANITOWOC WI USC00475017 ALTA 1 NNW WY USC00480140 COLONY WY USC00481905 GREEN RIVER WY USC00484065 MIDWEST WY USC00486195 NEWCASTLE WY USC00486660 SARATOGA WY USC00487990 SHERIDAN FLD STA WY USC00488160 WORLAND WY USC00489770 YELLOWSTONE PK MAMMO WY USC00489905
Interesting.
This is the kind of simple checks I asked for and expected from Hausfather et al. – “Where did you quantify the effect size before proceeding to adjust for it?”
Yes, and before I started reading on the subject I assumed (OK, OK, I know about “assume” now…) that this sort of basic check was being done. I recently asked a CAGW friend (who is slowly becoming skeptical) how he knew the Global Climate Models were accurate. He told me, “Well, I assume that they do hindcasting with them to make sure that the physics is right…”
Whole lot’a assumin’ goin’ on.
Thanks, Tony, for pointing out the facts.
A couple of facts for your warmist buddy:
the official definition of ‘climate change’:
That’s from the official UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/2536.php). The term specifically excludes all natural climate change, and even excludes any caused by humans due to, for example, land clearance or city building, considering only atmospheric changes.
The IPCC says about models:
Your friend assumed correctly. They do do hindcasting and if you look at the hindcast graphs they do retrodict the temperatures remarkably well during the ‘reference period’ (which was 1979-1999, IIRC, and I may not). However, there are so many parameters in the models that they can be made to hindcast anything. However, outside of the reference period the model temperatures diverge from reality both before and after the reference period and the models themselves diverge in their predictions. It’s a classic case of overfitting.
Thanks Steve. I have a copy of the NOAA FORTRAN code that is used for processing the USHCN data. I have located the TOBS part and will study it to see if I can discern how they are adjusting the temperatures.
One of the interesting things about TOBS is that (as far as I can tell) TOBS adjustments are ONLY applied to US temperatures! Which is to say, all of the historical global data was collected by observers at precisely the same time each day – from the heart of Africa to the snowy cold of Siberia. It would be also interesting to know if any adjustment for observation times are done for historical sea surface temperatures – likely not.
Where did you get the code from?
There was a link supplied by someone at WUWT (Zeke Hausfather I believe). Let me check for it.
Here is the link:
ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/v3/software/52i/
I don’t really understand how TOBS can continue to impact the temperature record. Some questions that I don’t have answers to are: when did we start collecting temperature records on an extensive basis?, how accurate were the first thermometers?, when did min/max thermometers get distributed and begin delivering temperatures?, when did the US/World data gatherers shift their collection times to compensate for TOBS? when did MMS data gathering devices get distributed?
When the change was made to min/max thermometers, there might be a shift one direction or another in the temperatures gathered. But wouldn’t both sets of thermometers be used to deliver data that could be compared for accuracy? When the time was changed for gathering data to eliminate TOBS there would have been a simultaneous set of data to determine what the TOBS would be for the prior data gathered. Where is that study? If any TOBS were needed to correct for prior temperatures, that correction would only affect the temperature history from that date going backwards. A cooling of the past from the point in time TOBS is determined and then applied. It would be a single, common, uniform adjustment for prior years and would not affect temperature records going forward. You wouldn’t see corrections jumping all over the place.
With the introduction of MMS devices, there would be no need to adjust for TOBS, or any other form of adjustments, other than UHI. I do not understand how greater and greater adjustments are needed as our temperature recorders get more accurate. It’s the oxymoron of climate science.
So, I am confused. There is no way I can justify the corrections that are being made to the current temperature record. It seems as though our government climate scientists are holding their cards pretty close to their vests; unwilling to explain how justifications for temperature adjustments are made. It may be that they don’t understand themselves.
The first couple of questions are answered by…sometime between 1870 and 1900.
I posted this link in another thread, but I think it is good for here, too…
https://archive.org/details/instructionsforv00unitrich
That’s the late 1890s instruction manual for the observers. It doesn’t exactly answer your first questions, but it does show that the devices and techniques were in use for a while.
MMS is still ‘new’. It hasn’t been around for more than 20 yrs (widespread use, at any rate).
That is an interesting booklet. I found this paragraph most interesting:
The mean of the highest and lowest temperature of the day, as observed with a maximum and minimum thermometer, gives a temperature on the average about 1 degree higher throughout the year than the hourly mean at places in the United States. This is the mean adopted by the Weather Bureau for the observations at the regular meteorological stations.
Then follows a recommendation on how to take a number of temperature readings through the day to minimize the correction referenced above. If the observer follows the recommendations, then TOBS is minimized.
Exactly…so they are saying now, that all the old observers either didn’t follow directions or that the directions they were told to follow were total crap.
I’m not a scientist, but recall hearing there’s an approximate 60-year climate oscillation due perhaps to the sun. The graph seems to show this quite distinctly. The 30s were hot, the 60s were cold, and the 90s were hot. I suppose we’re next due for bottoming out in the 2020s, then the climate alarmists can ramp it up again afterward without having to fabricate data.
An 88 year cycle and a 200 year cycle are solar cycles.
A layman’s article:
NASA Finds Sun-Climate Connection in Old Nile Records
The ~ 60 year cycles seem to be ocean cycles.
Atlantic ocean cycle (AMO): http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/GSC1.htm
The Pacific ocean also has a cycle that is not in sync (The PDO)
http://appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/PDO_AMO.htm
This shows how the PDO and AMO interact to give drought in different parts of the country:
http://sparkleberrysprings.com/v-web/b2/images/climate07/04mcabefig4lg.png
Thanks, Gail! There’s a lot of interesting stuff in climate research. It’s a tragedy it’s been corrupted so badly.
TOBS isn’t the problem.The changes to past temperature records are a result of the PHA. You do not see the same internal changes to the data in the TOBS dataset as you do in the “Final” data. Meaning: if you compare a TOBS dataset from last month, it will be the same as this month. If you compare the “Final” dataset, after PHA has run, you will have different data this month, compared to last month. This is not to say TOBS is legitimate, but it is not the source of the ongoing changes you see in the “historical” record.
Yes it is. It is one of them.