Ten years ago, experts told us that hurricanes like Katrina and Rita were the new normal, due to global warming.
The period since has been the quietest on record for US hurricanes, with no major (category 3-5) hurricanes.
Weather Street: 2015 Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
It is time to connect the dots, and recognize that climate experts have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.
At last some well deserved recognition for SG http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/14/problematic-adjustments-and-divergences-now-includes-june-data/
A 10 year hurricane drought in the US is pretty impressive. However, we are overdue for a big one. I will make a prediction. When the next major hurricane does hit the US, all we will hear is how it was a CO2 fueled storm, global warming to blame, etc.
Globally, hurricane occurance is not down. Be thankful you don’t live in the NW Pacific region.
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php
“Globally, hurricane occurance is not down”
Its not up either. According to IPCC AR5, there is no trend in global hurricane activity.
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
Chapter 2.6.3
– Current data sets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century and it remains uncertain whether any
reported long-term increases in tropical cyclone frequency are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
– No robust trends in annual numbers
of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been
identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.
– Callaghan and Power (2011) find a statistically significant decrease
in Eastern Australia land-falling tropical cyclones since the late 19th
century although including 2010/2011 season data this trend becomes
non-significant.
– Significant trends are not found in other oceans on shorter
time scales.
If there is no obvious trend in hurricane frequency over the last 100 years (CO2 has increased 33% since then), its pretty safe to say that CO2 does not cause more frequent hurricanes.
I agree, there’s no long term trend in global occurrence hurricanes – neither up or down. I was pointing out that the remarkable “drought” in land-falling Atlantic hurricanes does not indicate that globally hurricane activity is lessened.
I am concerned that people along the coastal regions of the eastern US are getting complacent. If we do get a big hurricane that make landfall, it could be catastrophic. We could easily have a ‘below average’ year in terms of number of storms and still get slammed… remember Hurricane Andrew…