Climate alarmists have already erased the 1940’s warmth, the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period, and now they want to erase the Holocene Climatic Optimum as well.
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I’d have a great deal more interest and confidence in the contemporary version of climate “science” if any of the “scientists” had the vaguest idea what climate means. Furthermore, I’d like them to learn that modeling is a tool that might assist within an experiment. It cannot be the experiment itself. At best models can only provide information that points toward a possible valid result.
In order to specify a model, we need to know what phenomena are relevant and how accurately we need to represent them. Unfortunately, that is precisely the information we are seeking in the research activity to be supported by the modelling. In other words, if we could specify the perfect model, it would be superfluous, because the understanding required would have been captured in the literature. Idiots, whose only experience of ‘models’ is in computer games which simulate a fantasy world, treat models as holy oracles. That has nothing to do with science.
As much as I admire the work of Tony Heller, I cannot help thinking that making a big issue of a variation in 1.5 degrees in a quantity, which I am pretty well certain cannot be measured meaningfully to better than about one degree
Gordon you may be missing that Tony is not pretending to be a Climate scientist what i have seen of his work is more pointing out the TRUTH as so many at IPCC Al Gore etc torture the facts until they met their agenda
like your web page i was wrong about you – thought you were part of the the King new clothing looks grand- cheers
“Tony is not pretending to be a Climate scientist”
An yet, what he is doing is closer to actual climate science than those who are pretending to be climate scientists.
I still havent met a single gamer who calls his virtuel fantasy worlds “models” or consider them to be one.
(even those who may refer to them as simulations(which they are)
would never call them realistic.They would call them pretty good simulations in relations to other games but pretty shitty as real simulations)
And they may call them “holy grails”(in terms of graphics and gameplay,which they dont as the universal gameplay does not allow excellence in specific gameplay terms) but for sure not oracles.
I wonder when you fail so hard on such smallinsignificant things in terms of reality :how big may your failure be in observing bigger and more complex things.
The vast majority of those investigating areas of climate are not scientist at all, they are regrettably crooks in the pay of government and others whose agenda has nothing to do with telling the truth.
Climate Driver Update
Climate drivers in the Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans and the Tropics
2 February 2021
The 2020–21 La Niña has likely passed its peak, with all of the international climate models surveyed by the Bureau anticipating NINO3.4
will return to borderline or neutral values by mid-autumn.
The graph shows 7, count them, Climate models.
A change from the 19/1/2021 Climate Driver Update which featured 8 international climate models.
Why? Surely not because NASA correctly predicted the moderate La Nina and had the temerity to predict
that it would keep going for at least 4 months
Your work is having an effect on the science community.
Dr. Spencer was sent your 3 temperature data altering videos and his faith in the surface temperature data has waned.
It’s not just a few evil conspirators at the tops who are pushing this climate change cult nonsense. It becomes a self perpetuating theme where once you start really going down the rabbit hole of believing the earth is doomed because of CO2 – you cannot possibly even entertain that you could be wrong in your cult like or religious belief structure.
Read this extremely sad and pertinent story:
This poor chap featured in the above story has completely wreaked his life, the life of his wife and two children by going so far down that rabbit hole. To acknowledge he’s made a serious mistake and all this sky is falling was a ruse towards some political goals – is a very hard pill to swallow.
To keep the scam going, the perpetrators need to diminish or erase facts which could serve to break one out of this cult of belief. And even those perpetrating the censorship or fudging of data or history are – many of them too are caught in this conundrum – if they admit to selves they are wrong, they have done incredible harm to themselves and others – and to admit that is really, really hard to do. So they continue the spiral downwards.
Yes, it is hard, but also possible. Hence, my monicker. I was a true believer. The constant disinformation campaign from MSM and gov’t paid scientism slowed the deprograming. I kept weighing info from both sides.
You can’t show a true believer anything. They have to have a burning desire to separate facts from fiction, and to put what they believe up to scrutiny.
Thank you, Tony.
Just another piece of evidence for a warmer holocene: ice-free Alpine summits during the life of the Tyrolean Iceman (Ötzi) some 5000 years ago.
I used to work for a group in IBM that used the SNAP/SHOT simulator to model customer mainframes and SNA networks for their planning. Customers would send us performance tapes and we would build and calibrate a model that matched the data. Often, the customer would come in for the modeling workshop before the model was calibrated. I would then show the customer the output, and told them to go home and not to come back until their system behavior matched the model.
It was meant as an icebreaker joke, but it appears that “climate scientists” have taken me seriously.
Your videos have shown up on Principia Scientific and Climate of Sophistry very recently and I believe your three part series on temperature data altering, influenced Dr. Roy Spencer’s opinion.
Excellent work Mr. Heller, please do not stop.
Thank You Tony,
I sincerely hope you continue to provide this sort of non-refutable evidence to counter and discredit the ‘so called scientists’ that apparently have no conscious about ignoring or even erasing actual information / data. I’m making a modest donation today.
I’ve often felt sea level variation over the last one million years of ten glacial / inter-glacial periods might be the simplest way for folks to understand our earth’s natural climate cycles by relating higher temperatures to melting glaciers to higher sea levels. It would give proper prospective to the 2-3 foot sea level increases the climate alarmists warn about. Have you made any presentation like that?
Now they’re saying the Earth is warming up because of cleaner air. Heads I win, tails you lose.
First they blamed warming on an air pollutant(co2)
and now on cleaner air?
I wonder when witches,leprechaums,unicornfarts and elves will be blamed.
So is there a source of untouched temp data that everyone can use?
If so will this data be safe from tampering forever?
Certain people are pushing an agenda. Either to support their job or to control people.
This might interest you Tony. Off topic but very important: https://www.globalresearch.ca/implanted-vaccine-package-id-germanys-parliament-has-ratified-gavis-digital-agenda-id2020/5736277?fbclid=IwAR3PVidq4ZMy04SiA7tt40l1BIv7s_VkQWBwVaLu3DvotBWwMwIDt1uUYDc
But it does make model calibration a walk in the park.
Another very nice graph of Holocene in perspective of another ice age, plus Milankovitch orbital cycles variables made by Clive Best:
It has atmospheric concentration of CO2 also with normal ice age cycle as 98% of total global CO2 is dissolved in the oceans like soda pop or beer, and only 2% of CO2 is atmospheric, and more boils out of oceans like warm soda during warmer periods due to gas laws during periods when the earth is getting more solar radiation, or opposite during colder periods.
Not that long ago it would have been winter all year long in Scotland. For thousands of years.
I have no idea why anyone in Scotland (or Canada, Norway, Greta’s Sweden etc would want a colder climate.
“A mere 125,000 years ago, it’s believed that not only were hippos happily splashing about the Thames, but lions would have been stalking the hills of Hampstead Heath”
Not possible these days of global warming