Predicting The Climate In 100 Years

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicted a warm February in the US, with Texas hot.

Climate Prediction Center – OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts

Instead we got the exact opposite.

U.S. had its coldest February in more than 30 years | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Then they predicted a warm, dry February in Wyoming and Colorado.

Climate Prediction Center – OFFICIAL 30-Day Forecasts

Instead we are having record snow and the wettest year on record.

Link

Here in Cheyenne, Wyoming we are having our coldest February/March since 1965.

I took this picture yesterday. The dark object below Kirye is a cattle fence.

Climate forecaster can’t predict two weeks into the future, but they do know what the climate will be like in 100 years.

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4 Responses to Predicting The Climate In 100 Years

  1. Terry Shipman says:

    Since these forecasters have a warm-bias mindset we should expect that to show up in their forecasts. Joe Bastardi, on the other hand, uses weather history as a guide. This is why he consistently gets it right. He knew what was going to happen in Texas and the midsection of the country. He had seen it before in weather history.

  2. Conrad Ziefle says:

    We used to do forecasts that were fairly simple. I had a guy who was BS Stanford engineer, MS MIT, and a gal who was BS-MS Stanford, and a guy who was BS San Jose state. The best at thinking out of the box was BS San Jose State. The best at complicating things beyond comprehension was MIT. Anyway we ran Monte Carlo and Neuro- network (San Jose’s idea). As simple as our situation was, we still could only use forecasts as probable views of the future, not explicit predictions of the future. When you try to apply these things to the climate, which is probably the most complex thing we have to deal with, then it is extreme hubris to think that you understand it and have got it right. It’s hubris on the level of believing you know what God thinks, believes, or wants.

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