NPR – Ian Almost A Category 5

Ian just shy of a Category 5 hurricane as it nears Florida : NPR

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10 Responses to NPR – Ian Almost A Category 5

  1. Gamecock says:

    Ian very similar to Charley in 2004. Punta Gorda was devastated then. Lightning may strike twice.

    • Eli the Pit Bulldog says:

      The Punta Gorda airport just had a gust to 123 mph, and is entering the eye (4:50 pm local time)
      Going watch the winds drop quickly with next obs report, assuming the equipment survives…

      • Eli the Pit Bulldog says:

        Interestingly enough the National Hurricane Center reports highest sustained on land at 85 mph with gust to 128. Not saying there’s some higher sustained winds on land where the station was knocked out of service but the stations above reported on went right thru the eastern eye wall. There’s numerous weather flow stations populating the area thanks to storm chasers placing them in the path, but so far nothing even close to cat 4 sustained winds on land

  2. conrad ziefle says:

    This is what, the first hurricane of the season which is darn near ended? And it is the first significant hurricane of the last how many years?

  3. GWS says:

    Where is the “human-caused climate change” that’s driving it?

  4. Michael Peinsipp says:

    Almost only counts in horseshoes, lightning and hand grenades.

  5. another Jim says:

    Looking at https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/
    not seeing cat 5, only KPGD26.92/-81.99 @ 23ft.
    Name:Punta Gorda, Charlotte County shows gusts over 120, sustained over 80.

  6. D. Boss says:

    The NHC has been pushing the wind speed estimates upward for about 5 years now and Ian was no exception. They claimed 155 mph, but actual fact checking of real world data shows it was considerably less than this.

    Numerous weather stations near landfall recorded far lower sustained wind speeds which I posted to another site yesterday. A slew of naysayers said I was mistaken as the NHC was their gospel.

    Here is another stubborn fact – the actual ADS-B data from the actual hurricane hunter aircraft, flying through the eyewall at landfall shows the wind speed at 9,975 feet to be between 110 and 120 mph! (so it’s much lower at ground level)

    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL71/history/20220928/1553Z/KBIX/KBIX

    (hit the play button, then pause, then you can move the timeline slider to view the altitude and speed data – move it to near the middle, when speed gets to 151 mph to see the position I am speaking of)

    And the track log is here:
    https://flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL71/history/20220928/1553Z/KBIX/KBIX/tracklog

    The specific data point when the plane is traversing the eyewall is at 2:58:03, and it is flying at 86 degrees, and the ground speed is 151 mph.

    Now some aviation 101: planes have a max maneuvering speed noted as Va, above which rapid control movements or turbulence can cause structural damage. This hunter aircraft is a C130, and it’s Va is roughly 240 mph. (you can see this plane was approx 234 maneuvering when it was not blown by the winds but let’s use the 240 figure for this analysis)

    So the plane had an airspeed of 240 mph, a ground speed of 151 mph, and it was heading 86 degrees. The wind was from 50-60 degrees and so the cross vs head wind calculation (89 mph at a delta of 30-40 degrees) reveals the wind speed was 110 to 120 mph to achieve the plane’s ground speed of 151 as it flew in the eyewall. And the plane was at 9,975 feet above sea level at the time, therefore the wind speed on the ground would be much less.

    Note ADS-B is a protocol the plane’s transponder uses to send out altitude, heading and position data every few seconds. Ground stations pick this data up and record it. it is primarily used for collision avoidance systems. The ground speed is calculated from the position and heading values and time interval of the data points.

    The NHC has been inflating the wind speeds for several years now, and sometimes inflating the hurricane category by 1-3 units. Here they said Cat 4 and it was a Cat 2 or maybe a Cat 3 at landfall.

    Still a serious storm and devastating for those involved – but not catastrophic as a real Cat 4 or 5 would be. The climate change cult kool aid has infiltrated every level of official and supposed science based reckoning. (actually the proclamations by the NHC are not a science, but an art – they take all the data and their computer models and then decide what to “predict” based on that and their own gut feeling – often ignoring actual data from the ground or from the hurricane hunter aircraft)

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