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May 1922 Heatwave In Europe – 91 Degrees In Paris, Glaciers Melting Rapidly
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http://www.preventionweb.net/english/professional/news/v.php?id=14970
WMO: Unprecedented sequence of extreme weather events
Date:11 Aug 2010
Source(s):World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
Several regions of the world are currently coping with severe weather-related events: flash floods and widespread flooding in large parts of Asia and parts of Central Europe while other regions are also affected: by heatwave and drought in Russian Federation, mudslides in China and severe droughts in sub-Saharan Africa. While a longer time range is required to establish whether an individual event is attributable to climate change, the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming. …
[…SNIP…]
According to Roshydromet, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, July 2010 is the warmest month ever in Moscow since the beginning of modern meteorological records, 130 years ago. Temperature has exceeded the long-term average by 7.8° C (compared to the previous record in July 1938 with 5.3° C above average). Record high temperatures varying between 35° C and 38.2° C were registered for more than 7 consecutive days end July, with the heatwave continuing into August. The daily temperature of 38.2° C on 29 July was the highest ever in Moscow (compared to a long-term average of approximately 23° C). The minimum temperature of nearly 25°C (recorded during the night before sunrise) also scored a significant increase compared to the historical average of about 14° C. Those temperatures are characteristic for a heatwave of a rare intensity and duration. …
[…,SNIP…]
Scientists projected an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events
Several diverse extreme weather events are occurring concurrently around the world, giving rise to an unprecedented loss of human life and property. They include the record heatwave and wildfires in the Russian Federation, monsoonal flooding in Pakistan, rain-induced landslides in China, and calving of a large iceberg from the Greenland ice sheet. These should be added to the extensive list of extreme weather-related events, such as droughts and fires in Australia and a record number of high-temperature days in the eastern United States of America, as well as other events that occurred earlier in the year.
The heatwave in the European part of the Russian Federation is associated with a persistent pressure ridge that appeared in June 2010. Initially, it was associated with the Azores high, but later was reinforced by a strong inflow of warm air from the Middle East. More than 20 daily temperature records were broken including the absolute maximum temperature in Moscow. The high temperatures triggered massive forest and peat fires in the European part of the country. Some villages were burned completely, with smoke and smog adversely and greatly affecting the health and well-being of tens of millions of people.
The floods in Pakistan were caused by strong monsoon rains. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the instant rain intensity reached 300 mm over a 36-hour period. The strong monsoon rains led to the highest water levels in 110 years in the Indus River in the northern part of the country, based on past records available from 1929. … Some reports indicate that 40 million citizens have been affected by the floods.
China is also experiencing its worst floods in decades. …
On 5 August 2010, the MODIS sensor on NASA’s Aqua satellite detected calving from the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland. The largest chunk of ice to calve from the glacier in the past 50 years of observations and data (since 1962) measures more than 200 sq. km. Tens of thousands of icebergs calve yearly from the glaciers of Greenland. However, this one is very large and because of its size more typically resembles icebergs in the Antarctic.
Climate extremes have always existed, but all the events cited above compare with, or exceed in intensity, duration or geographical extent, the previous largest historical events. According to Roshydromet, studies of the past climate show no record of similar high temperatures since the tenth and eleventh centuries in Ancient Russia.
The occurrence of all these events at almost the same time raises questions about their possible linkages to the predicted increase in intensity and frequency of extreme events, for example, as stipulated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. The Report stated that “…the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth’s climate changes, and these changes could occur even with relatively small mean climate changes. Changes in some types of extreme events have already been observed, for example, increases in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and heavy precipitation events” (Summary for Policy Makers, WG I, FAQ 10.1, p. 122).
Similar questions were also frequently asked following the summer heatwave in Europe in 2003, which was the hottest in continental Europe since at least 1540. In a number of studies, particularly “Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003” (Nature, 2004) Stott, Stone and Allen stated that “it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave” such as that which occurred in 2003. As Beniston and Diaz report in their paper published in Global and Planetary Change in 2004: “although a single extreme event, however intense, is by no means proof of global warming, the lessons that can be learned from the recent heat wave could be used to help shape future policy response. …
A series of recent publications indicate that main patterns of atmospheric variability exhibit noticeable changes and are predicted to be different in a warmer climate. …
Big picture good. Anecdotes bad.
Quantify, quantify, quantify!
That’s real science.
“Scientists projected an increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events”
I concur. That’s exactly we should expect in a cooling world.
But those scientists with whom you “concur” are telling you the opposite.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/mean:6/plot/uah/mean:6/plot/uah/from:1979/to/trend
Trends don’t last forever….
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/mean:6/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1880/to:1910/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1910/to:1940/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1940/to:1970/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1970/to:2001/trend
Your ridiculous pseudo trend lines only highlight your desperation. You wouldn’t even pass ‘chart trend reading 101’ with that classic example of how not
The trend is simply a measurement of what is happening. Why it is happening is of far more importance, because it allows us to predict whether such trends will continue or not.
So you can indulge in unsupported magical thinking all you want but I already cited a report from the World Meteorological Organization. Instead of responding to the substance of that report you merely skirt the issue by chanting the old mantras about cooling, etc.
As for the fact that what you’re doing is undeniably “cherry picking” the very site you generated your chart from shows that what you did is just that-cherry-picking.
Here is what Wood for Trees says about your Calculatus Distortionatus:
“I’ve had a lot of requests for trend lines on the graphs, and I’m happy to oblige… However, I would just like to note the dangers of ‘cherry-picking’ particular periods – here are four different trend-lines you can get from the same data (UAH temperature) just by choosing your periods carefully:”
http://www.woodfortrees.org/
The only trend that is important is the trend of July, 2010 in Moscow
Sorry. My bad.
I clean forgot that trendlines are only relevant when they show warming.
“I clean forgot that trendlines are only relevant when they show warming.”
You don’t ‘forget’, you just never knew what the right thing to do was in the first place.
Few years bad. More years better!
Few years bad. More years better!
Then what is your problem?
I have shown you that we are well within historical extremes and actually experiencing mild weather compared to other periods of similar length in the past.
If one wants to see stable climate the past 30 years is about as stable as global climate gets!
I left out that thirty years only represents a small portion of long term weather patterns.
Beans, Beans, The musical fruit!
We have been down this road before, but it bears repeating.
Deadliest US Hurricane: 1900
Strongest US Hurricane: 1935
Second Strongest US Hurricane: 1969
Only Year That Two Hurricanes Caused 1,000+ fatalities: 1893
Deadliest US Tornado: 1925
Second Deadliest US Tornado: 1840
Deadliest US Flood: 1889
Deadliest US Wildfire: 1871
Deadliest US Blizzard: 1888
Most Severe and Deadliest Heatwave: 1936
Worst US Drought: 1934
Worst US Coldwave: 1899
Worst US Coldwave: 1899
I can hear IWB now: “Big picture good. Anecdotes bad.” … and a reference to cherry ice cream.