Hundred-Year Forecast: Drought
By CHRISTOPHER R. SCHWALM, CHRISTOPHER A. WILLIAMS and KEVIN SCHAEFER
Published: August 11, 2012BY many measurements, this summer’s drought is one for the record books. But so was last year’s drought in the South Central states. And it has been only a decade since an extreme five-year drought hit the American West. Widespread annual droughts, once a rare calamity, have become more frequent and are set to become the “new normal.
It is difficult to comprehend how anyone could be as dishonest as Schwalm, Williams and Schaffer are. This is what Hansen said a decade ago.
Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s “Dust Bowl” that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbeck’s Grapes of Wrath.
Does it look like the Mississippi River has dried up? Has half the population of Oklahoma moved to California? Drought is cyclical and the children who wrote the NYT piece are either grossly incompetent or they are liars.
Here is a newspaper article about drought from 1868, before professional liars took over science. Australia suffered extreme drought for five straight years from 1835 to 1839, including three consecutive years of extreme drought
13 Oct 1868 – THE CLIMATE OF AUSTRALIA.
The Anasazi were wiped out by 75 years of drought in the 13th century. Scientists need to stop lying.
h/t to dmmcmah
The last Five Year ‘Dry’ in the US. was August 1996 – 2001. The next Five Year ‘Dry’ will be August 2014 – 18. (Alex S. Gaddes ‘Tomorrow’s Weather’ 1990) An updated version of the above work (with ‘Dry’ Cycle forecasts to 2055) is available as a free pdf from [email protected]
Don, you can clearly see right before 2000, there was a drop off in dry conditions, because we were in a strong el nino in 1998. The US was NOT dry in the late 90s, we were wet because the ENSO index favored el ninos!! Don, you are making things up, just look at the graph, what “dry cycle” are you talking about from 1996-2001 because I don’t see one.
Where’s the graph Eric?
Don, how about you look at the top of the page with the graph titled, “Percent of US Moderate to Extreme Drought January 1900-March 2006. You can clearly see that there was no “dry cycle” in the late 90s, that was because the ENSO was dominated by el nino, thus the US became wet as result.
Looks like ‘Dry’ spikes before and after 2000 to me Eric.
“..before professional liars took over science..”
Maybe they could try their hand at Alchemy. Oh.. they are..