With all these 40 mph wind gusts going on, we may run out of rock names this summer.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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The beauty of this climate arena is that we can see the shortcomings and the successes of the models and the forecasters in real time. This time next week, we will know if there is a hurricane, tropical storm, rain event or just sunny skies in southern Florida.
They don’t claim to be infallible (unlike their associates at GISS) and they include their error estimates as well as their caveats with each prediction (and not just projection) AND they use real-world data.
viz
RADIOSONDE DATA
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LEVEL. MOREOVER…AS NOTED EARLIER…SOME DRY AIR IS
PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY. IN A FEW
DAYS…PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS…THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA…BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
They can officially flush Emily down the toilet along with the other four pieces of crap that were earlier named.