FIFA is 97% certain that that they can determine the World Cup champion, by interpolating results from nearby matches within a 1200 km radius. They also correct for the time of kickoff bias, and make an urban heat adjustment – penalizing teams from cooler climates.
Disrupting the Borg is expensive and time consuming!
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So you’re saying England have a chance?
Being within 1200 km of Germany and Spain, England has an excellent chance.
ROFLMAO!!
Just like England had a chance in the cricket tests in Australia this last summer?
?
Looks like the closest part of the US is more than 2800 of your French socialist measurement units from Brazil, so we’re counting on Mexico now!
Quite right Steve. Using the well know and verified methods of USHCN a new model of forecasting soccer results can be made –
Of course it is well know that statistically it is more accurate to determine the average score per tournament by estimating the outcomes than by using the actual results. You are correct in your assumption that by interpolating results from nearby matches within a 1200 km radius gives better results, but you have failed to note the problem of past results.
This is because inaccurate historical result only confuse the longterm trends due to large but erroneous importance place upon them. To counter historic bias from too many goals counted in the past (due to replay bias, and inaccurate observational time of kick), these results will be downward adjusted. Using the adjusted figures in our new model has eliminated the over-score bias from the past, and shows the
requiredupward trend for the future.The current model now correctly shows that scores will rise, and by 2032 most game will be won by a catastrophic 104 goals (+/-0,00072% error) per game, with an average of 86 penalties (+/-11%).
Television contracts are being sought for the broadcasting of the model in action.
N.B.
The models source code is not for publication.
This post reminds me of an Asimov short story where elections started being determined by fewer and fewer votes because computer models could determine what the people who didn’t vote for would have voted for from the votes of the people who did vote. Eventually it got to the point where elections would be decided from one real vote, and the model filling in the rest.
‘Franchise’ is the name of the story.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franchise_(Asimov)
Norman Muller A.K.A. Barry Barack Soretoro Hussein. did win in 2008 as predicted by Isaac Asimov and voting by computer consensus~ scary
I hear FIFA have also tampered with historic results, with the result that England have won every world cup since 1950! (Bad luck Scotland!)
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gou1cspUfdY?feature=player_embedded&w=640&h=360%5D
About 2 mins in, but worth watching the lot!
The IPCC World Cup model has just re-assessed Spain’s chances of winning…
Previously it was moderately confident of a Spanish victory. Now it is highly confident.