Around this time in 2012, NCDC made it clear that they were going to declare 2012 as the warmest year in US history – regardless of actual temperatures. We are starting to see the same thing with global temperatures in 2014.
“If we have the El Niño that most are predicting, I think there’s a good chance that it’ll end up breaking the global temperature record set in 2010,” said Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University in College Station.
Satellite temperatures through May, 2014 show that there is no chance of 2014 coming anywhere close to record warmth and that 2014 is barely warmer than 1995, but actual data has no meaning at NCDC anymore. They are tasked by the White House to produce warming.
rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
h/t to Dave G
All World ENSO models now say no El Niño. Too bad for the catastrophists.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Outlooks
And those hot colours over Australia are total crap. Australia’s BOM were so politicised last year with the election and the carbon tax repeal that they published left wing political announcements rather than facts. It was a disgrace to real scientists.
That map is from NOAA. They have been nearly 100% wrong on nearly all predictions for the last several years and yes, they put out fake data. What they define as ‘cold’ is very interesting in that it doesn’t exist, according to their predictions.
I want them to live on my mountain here in upstate NY wearing summer clothing in winter. That will fix their fixation on global warming. By the way, it is cold yet again after just two warm days this month.
Here is a nice article that shows what McGuinty did to Ontario and what Obama is doing to us:
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/06/02/ontarios-power-trip-irrational-energy-planning-tripling-power-rates-under-the-liberals-direction/
Note that electricity in Ontario went from 6.5 cents per kWh in 2003 to 15 cents now, heading for 20 cents in a couple, three years. This is what lefties call “success”.
And the cost of everything else triples or more…. except your paycheck.
The whole scam is all about extracting the maximum amount of wealth (slave labor) without the serfs figuring out that is what the elite running the governments and corporations are up to and invoking Madame Guillotine.
Why else would flakes like Holdren and the Ehrlichs be, not only running around loose, but be setting government policy. Why else would a flaky philosophy like Marxism see the light of day?
NOTE: I am all for capitalism but we have not seen capitalism for over 100 years. Crony Corporatism AIN’T Capitalism no matter how much paint the progressives apply.
mine was 5.5 last year to 13.0 this winter @@sholes!!
That is the reason they want to switch to natural gas from coal. You can really jack-up the prices when there is peak demand. With coal, because it can easily be stock piled, you can not sell jacking the prices to the public without getting accused of price gouging. Nuclear has a similar problem so natural gas (piped) is the price gaugers product of choice.
Note that Al Gore has dumped his Green Energy stock and replaced it with natural gas pipelines. link
This was the real plan in the first place. Shell Oil’s VP Ged Davis wrote the scenarios for the IPCC as lead author. Agenda 21 sustainability is his Scenario B1. Shell is heavy into natural gas, solar, wind and the ‘carbon market’.
From the climategate e-mail
http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/1/FOIA/mail/0889554019.txt
Climategate e-mails with Ged Davis mentioned:
http://www.au.agwscam.com/cru/search.php
Comment tying stuff together: http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/03/26/comment-of-the-day-6/#comment-331376
If they really thought CO2 was so dangerous they’d be hopeful at any study predicting it is less dangerous than expected and they’d be jumping for joy at the so-called pause because it might mean things aren’t as bad as they feared, i.e. we’re saved! But since they are ever-hopeful for an El Niño and whatnot, methinks they have a hidden agenda operating here, like even if they’re wrong, curbing carbon emissions, raising the cost of energy, making people get along with less… in short, deindustrialization, is a good thing even if the rationale for doing it is rubbish.
You are right to make that observation but its triviality is a proof that anyone unable to see or admit it is either a complete moron or in on the scam.
NOAA political scientists have to say 2014 tops 2012. The big AGW push from The WH and the State Run Media the past few months, leading up to Obama’s job crushing CO2 reduction push, needs support from a trusted institution, such as NOAA. Who would dare doubt NOAA and NASA???
Corruption at the highest levels is still criminal.
I don’t think Andrew ever looks at actual data, but I can’t believe that these morons don’t realize that a strong el nino is now all but impossible. Look at the actual data. Are they still pushing this?
Jeff, you might want to look at Bob Tisdale’s latest post at WUWT.
About mid way down in the comments is one from Joe Bastardi.
My SWAG is a weak El Niño that Trenberth et al. will blame on the Indonesian volcanic activity.
There is a volcano going in the arctic too BTW.
30 day SOI now plus 10.. plus 8 is la nina base state. Physical drivers should limit this. Australian BOM and UKMET berely even have an enso. IRI blend is also for a moderate event. Weatherbell,com since MARCH has analogged this most closely to the 02/03, 09-10 events. This is a huge problem also for winter, since this type of nino has a cold winter, which we are forecasting. The perfect storm of incompetence may be coming home to roost. a grossly over-forecasted agenda driven warm event, followed by a cold winter. BTW isnt it an admission that the tropical pacific is really the global thermostat when they jump for joy at the prospect of a spiking of temps with the enso. There problem is in the cold pdo that we are now in , the enso events are followed by more cooling than the spike. This crew is so nonsensical, they don’t even understand they are acknowledging the oceans are a control knob, co2 isnt. Though of late they are trying to say co2 is warming the oceans.. That theory was debunked by Gray even before they made it He nailed the cycle from back in the 70s and this paper is the holy grail explaining the physical flaws in the warmingista propaganda ( not fit to be called and argument anymore)
http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Publications/gray2012.pdf
Perhaps if Trenberth would listen to Gray, he would understand where is “missing Heat” is and why now he thinks he found it.
This argument is a waste of Mankinds time and treasure and is causing and will cause many more tears as ignorance of the past fuels the arrogance that is shackling the future
Joseph Bastardi,
Thank you for coming over to this blog and explaining things.
Can you please answer a question?
Does the build up of sea ice in the Antarctic have any effect on ENSO?
I know the Antarctic Circumpolar current is wind driven and the Humboldt current branches off that current as the current goes through Drake Passage. Would the conditions that allow the sea ice to build also affect how much cold water heads up the coast of South America as the Humboldt?
There will be no ENSO this year, or next year, or the year after that.
The next ENSO will be a powerful La Nina, that will impact 2020-2022, with the worst winter season in the northern hemisphere in 2021-2022, and it will rival the last brutal winter of 2014 and set new weather records for cold temperatures, heavy snowfall and ice.
In my climate forecast, there will be no ENSO until 2020, and that one will be La Nina – a very strong one at that.
Until 2020, we will see strange cool plumes in worldwide sea surface temperatures; a lack of hurricanes; along with the continued growth and expansion of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents.
This is the trending to Global Cooling, which I have forecasted to begin officially in December 2017 and last approximately 36 years.
ENSO events are solar-planetary forced and occur every 10-11 years. The last ENSO, which I forecasted, was a El Nino in mid-2009 that was followed by a La Nina in 2010-11.
Think of ENSO as climate change in action.
You are seeing what amounts to a large scale variability in the circulatory system, and when you take out ENSO you are removing a climate mechanism where the thermal/kinetic exchange to equilibrium is achieved.
ENSO is externally forced through the polar annular modes/AAM, and ENSO is climate change in action. What confounds the computer modellers about ENSO’s cycle is that the thermodynamic response to perturbation is not linear.
ENSO responds to fluctuations by the external forcing from the Sun.
Understand at the dynamics of ENSO and what forces it.
ENSO is forced by the Sun externally because the strength of the trade winds, that’s Walker Cell dynamics, and the AAM integral come before ENSO SST variation.
Now, the atmosphere is the less energetic body, so by definition there has to be an ‘external’ perturbation present.
Evidence of such Solar forcing exists and the relationship is significant:
Corotating coronal holes of the Sun induce fluctuations of the solar wind speed in the vicinity of the Earth.
These fluctuations of solar wind speed are closely correlated with geomagnetic activity and the resultant geophysical climate and weather effects on Earth.
It is basic to Astrometeorology. That is what I do.
Now, solar wind speeds have been observed and monitored by orbiting Earth satellites since the mid-1960s. The long-term series of solar wind speed clearly reveals enhanced amplitudes at the solar rotation period of 27.3 days and at its harmonics 13.6 and 9.1 days.
The amplitude series are modulated by a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) that has a period of 1.75a (that’s 21 months) as bispectral analysis reveals.
A 1.75a QBO component is also present in the equatorial, zonal wind of the stratosphere at 30 hPa, in addition to the well-known QBO component at the period 2.4a (at 29 months.)
The solar wind QBO influences the stratospheric QBO, the global electric circuit, and cloud cover by modulation of ionospheric electric fields, cosmic ray flux and particle precipitation.
And the series of solar wind speed fluctuations are bandpass-filtered at the period 1.75a. The filtered series provide the amplitude of the solar wind QBO as function of time.
The maxima of the solar wind QBO series correlate with those of the ENSO Index. Analysis confirms that the solar wind QBO helps to trigger ENSO activity.
The solar forcing of ENSO is done by changes in meridional flux through the NAM/SAM and that ties directly right back into planetary wave action.
In volume 36, issue 17, of the September 2009 Geophysical Research Letters, Rodrigo Caballero and Bruce T. Anderson state that:
“Stationary planetary waves are excited in the mid-latitudes, propagate equatorward and are absorbed in the subtropics. The impact these waves have on the tropical climate has yet to be fully unraveled.
“Previous work has shown that interannual variability of zonal-mean stationary eddy stress is well correlated with interannual variability in Hadley cell strength. A separate line of research has shown that changes in midlatitude planetary waves local to the Pacific strongly affect ENSO variability.
“Here, we show that the two phenomena are in fact closely connected. Interannual variability of wave activity flux impinging on the subtropical central Pacific affects the local Hadley cell. The associated changes in subtropical subsidence affect the surface pressure field and wind stresses, which in turn affect ENSO.
“As a result, a winter with an anomalously weak Hadley cell tends to be followed a year later by an El Niño event.”
Moreover, there is a link from the Pacific Meridional Mode to ENSO, as Ping Chang and Link Ji from Texas A&M University at College Station, Texas wrote in late 2008:
“The occurrence of a boreal spring phenomenon referred to as the Pacific Meridional Model (MM) is shown to be intimately linked to the development of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a long simulation of a coupled model.
The MM, characterized by an anomalous north–south SST gradient and anomalous surface circulation in the northeasterly trade regime with maximum variance in boreal spring, is shown to be inherent to thermodynamic ocean–atmosphere coupling in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) latitude, and the MM existence is independent of ENSO.
“The thermodynamic coupling enhances the persistence of the anomalous winds in the deep tropics, forcing energetic equatorially trapped oceanic waves to occur in the central western Pacific, which in turn initiate an ENSO event. The majority of ENSO events in both nature and the coupled model are preceded by MM events.”
Now, the reasons why NOAA/NWS and every other conventional climate center on Earth, along with climatologists and their computer models cannot forecast ENSO; is that their computer models are shit.
ENSO is an *astronomically-caused* climate event.
And clearly the algorithms in their overblown and error-filled computer models are not programmed to understand ENSO.
That is why they cannot forecast it and every single year they come out with forecasts on ENSO and they fail.
They did it last time when I forecasted the 2009-2011 ENSO three years in advance, from 2006.
Rather, what conventional modellers do is that they take an initial condition and then they apply their own perturbation theories to attempt to get a future projection – and those projections are always wrong, wrong, wrong.
In truth, in the real world of climate, ENSO is NOT an internally driven or a chaotic phenomenon.
ENSO is a solar and planetary magnetically-driven event that forces upper stratospheric U-flow/QBO and you can witness the results and impact on the N/S annular modes.
Reports from the CFS project on the 2011 La Nina that I forecasted fell to -4C because those expensive computer models are founded on absolutely useless methods on the given boundary conditions that they use to project from.
It means that they are essentially using a system dynamic that *drives* the system state, rather than the other way around. They have it ass backwards.
For instance, if you subtract ENSO, then you also have to subtract the poleward migration of Hadley cells/expansion of the Ferrel cells seen since solar year 1976.
Now, once you do that, you will lose the 3-4 percent decrease that’s observed in tropical cloud cover. Therefore, you lose essentially all of the warming that has occurred since the 1970s and that relates to about 3.5W/m^2 of loss since 1982.
NOAA/NWS and every other climate forecast center do not successfully produce accurate seasonal forecasts.
Again, that’s because their models are only programmed to the general governing equations that are put into them.
For years now, with all that money they’ve wasted, the computer climate modeling world is a total disaster and they have to know it after busting every season, every year, year in and year out.
Again, there will be no ENSO until 2020. We will see signatures by mid-2019 when things really begin to get interesting, but by 2020 there will a full blown La Nina that will be in force for 2.5 years according to my calculations.
The worst of it will be during the winter of 2021-2022 – a really bad and long winter season followed by a cold, wet spring and cool summer of 2022.
ENSO is climate change in action and that climate change is to GLOBAL COOLING, which officially begins in December 2017. That’s been my forecast and people had better prepare for it too.
~ Theodore White, Astromet