El Nino always generates a spike, particularly in TLT satellite data. Look for a spike in temperatures over the next year.
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Which will of course be cited by the global warming crowd as evidence that the “pause” has ended. It will bolster Obama’s case just as he signs the global warming treaty later this year.
We are dealing with the ‘New Creationists’, and all things are possible through Gavina.
Accompanied by the hysteria of the 0blamea regime and the lamestream media, of course… Chicken Little is alive and well…
El Nino will be over by late spring or early summer. The el nino began in September and only lasts roughly 6 to 9 months. The spike we’ve already seen is due to the el nino. The el nino watchers always put too much faith in kelvin waves. Last year they were predicting a super el nino in early March and that kelvin didn’t even create an el nino at all (and it was supposedly record breaking). The determinate factor are the winds. When solar activity collapses, which it has been for past three months, the winds become stronger and el ninos can’t form or form much weaker than they otherwise would.
. . and if it doesn’t come to pass, Hansen will fix that.
I thought Hansen was retired and on the lecture circuit. Don’t you mean his protege’ Gavin Schmidt?
Naturally . . I realized that after I posted. But, it’s still group-think. ha.
It’s okay, the normally-distributed temperature adjustment processes tell us that next year is likely to have downward temperature adjustments, which will balance things out. :-/
I don’t know. This was an unusually weak El Nino (if it was, indeed, one at all). Roy Spencer isn’t convinced that there’ll be any further spike. http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/global-temperature-update-for-march-2015-0-26-deg-c/
On the flip side, Bob Tisdale thinks there will has been a SST reaction, but wonders how much upside to temps is left. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/05/march-2015-enso-update-will-the-201415-el-nino-become-the-20141516-el-nino/
Just remember… the USA is just 2% of the Worlds Land area…
Sooooo… if Temperatures actually rise quote that and Hillary’s “What does it matter!!”…
Mild El Nino has been hovering since last year.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml
But so far it’s nothing like 1997-98 which must have been a “Galactic El Nino” when compared to 2014’s “Super El Nino”.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi-1993-2000.shtml
Apparently there is a “tool” at CSIRO that can tell you the weather in 2090.
Australian taxpayers paid for this waste of money.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/a-csiro-tool-shows-the-expected-average-climate-in-your-home-town-in-2090/story-fnjwvztl-1227295776924
The sun creates el Nino events. This solar cycle has been very weak but has two peaks and the second peak is stronger than the first peak. We are at the end of the second peak and in six months the sun spot activity is going to fall rapidly and stay very much lower during the next solar cycle.
We will have back to back la Ninas for at least two or more decades.
Joe Bastardi disagrees. He is saying the current El Nino will intensify over the next few months and possibly even into the winter.
It seems to me that they’re trying too hard to label things. An el Nino year is an anomaly. A la Nina is an anomaly. Recently, there seems to be a desire to label every single year as one or the other, when most years are neither. It’s like the constant pestering they now do to every tropical depression, trying to find a high enough gust to label it a storm or hurricane. 100 years ago, if you had to ask, it wasn’t a hurricane. By going out of our way to label ever smaller anomalies, we’re completely losing the relationships that historically go along with them. Southern California is never dry in a genuine el Nino year, using a threshold of +1.5C. At the current threshold of +.5C, they’ve plainly defined the anomaly down to the point that it’s lost it’s predictive capacity.
True, the marginal periods where there was really no ‘el Nino/la Nina’ event has been turned into either/or stuff. It is always an el Nino no matter how weak or a la Nina even though it is barely noticeable.
For several reasons I think an El Nino spike will be minimal and also, I think, for several reasons,
we are at the beginning of a downturn.
For the climate idiots I would like to see a down turn, but for humanity I would like to see a slight increase because that is the best case for human existence.
This positive cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is fairly young. It could vacillate in positive territory for several more years before the major downturn really sets in. The last cycle did that) several false starts) before going into negative cycle.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg
I was being lazy with the wiki graph. Here is Ole Humlum’s.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20GlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gif