Northeast US Having Its Coldest Year On Record

14 Responses to Northeast US Having Its Coldest Year On Record

1. Espen says:

   April 29, 2015 at 11:51 am

   Might be an indication that the AMO (and thus the NH temperatures) is going to cool for the next 30 years or so. Let’s hope for at least a little help from CO2 to keep us warm.

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   • Gail Combs says:

     April 29, 2015 at 12:24 pm

     Or Dr Evan’s <a href="http://sciencespeak.com/climate-nd-solar.html"Notch-Delay Solar Theory is correct, and the world is in for a very cold next couple of decades or even centuries.

     The notch-delay solar model hindcasts temperatures from 1770 to 2013 reasonably well, getting most of the major turning points about right, including “the pause”. It also reproduces some of the short term jiggles known as “natural variation”, which the CO2 models cannot begin to predict because CO2 rises smoothly. The notch-delay solar model is a quantified, physical model — not merely handwaving, a rough calculation, curve fitting, or an unexplained correlation. It’s existence demonstrates that the global warming of the last two centuries could have been mainly associated with TSI rather than CO2. This overcomes one of the bedrock beliefs of anthropogenic global warming, namely that the recent global warming could not plausibly be due to anything other than CO2. The notch-delay theory provides a second, alternative solution to the climate problem. No longer is climate a “one horse race”, where you are limited to either supporting the CO2 theory or focusing on its deficiencies…

     New solar theory predicts imminent global cooling. There are three big drops in solar radiation in the 400 years of records. The first, in the 1600s, led to the Maunder Minimum, the coldest time in the last 400 years. The second in Napoleon’s time, led to the Dalton Minimum, the second coldest time in the last 400 years. The third started in 2004, but hasn’t led to cooling…yet. The notch-delay theory says that the fall in TSI signals a fall in force X which acts after a delay, which seems to be 11 years. So the fall will occur in 2004 + 11 = 2015. But the delay is tied to the solar cycle length, currently 13 years, so the cooling is more likely to start in 2004 + 13 = 2017. The cooling will be at least 0.2°C, maybe 0.5°C, enough to undo global warming back to the 1950s. The carbon dioxide and ND solar theories have been in agreement over the least century due to generally rising carbon dioxide and solar radiation, but now they sharply diverge. Only one of them can be correct, and soon we’ll know which one. Here’s the criterion: A fall of at least 0.1°C (on a 1-year smoothed basis) in global average surface air temperature over the next decade. If the criterion does not occur then the ND solar theory is rubbish and should be thrown away. If it does occur then the carbon dioxide theory is rubbish, and should be thrown away….

     http://s1.ibtimes.com/sites/www.ibtimes.com/files/styles/v2_article_large/public/2014/06/10/solar-cycle-24.png

     A History of Solar Activity over Millennia
     This is one of my favorite papers because it uses several methods to validate the information. It is long but worth reading.

     A few snippets on the just passed solar Modern Grand maximum.

     …Note that several “predictions” of the general decline of the coming solar activity have been made recently (Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008; Lockwood et al., 2011), however, these are not really true predictions but rather the acknowledge of the fact that the Modern Grand maximum (Usoskin et al., 2003c; Solanki et al., 2004) must cease. Similar caution can be made about predictions of a Grand minimum (e.g., Lockwood et al., 2011; Miyahara et al., 2010) – a grand minimum should appear soon or later, but presently we are hardly able to predict its occurrence. ….

     …The most prominent feature in CR modulation is the 11-year cycle, which is in inverse relation to solar activity ….An interesting feature is the increase of CR flux in 2009, when it was the highest ever recorded by NMs (Moraal and Stoker, 2010), as caused by the favorable heliospheric conditions (unusually weak heliospheric magnetic field and the flat heliospheric current sheet) (McDonald et al., 2010). For the previous 50 years of high and roughly-stable solar activity, no trends have been observed in CR data; however, as will be discussed later, the overall level of CR has changed significantly on the centurial-millennial timescales. ….

     Models focused on the reconstruction of heliospheric parameters (HMF or the modulation potential ?) cannot be verified in this manner since no heliospheric data exists before the middle of the 20th century. Comparison to direct cosmic-ray data after the 1950s (or, with caveats, after the 1930s – McCracken and Beer, 2007) is less conclusive, since the latter are of shorter length and correspond to a period of high solar activity, leading to larger uncertainties during grand minima. It is important that some (semi)empirical relations forming the basis for the proxy method are established for the recent decades of high solar activity. The end of the Modern grand maximum of activity and the current low level of activity, characterized by the highest ever observed cosmic ray flux as recorded by ground-based neutron monitors, the very low level of the HMF and geomagnetic activity, should help to verify the connections between solar activity, cosmic ray fluxes, geomagnetic activity, the heliospheric magnetic field, and open field. Since some of these connections are somewhat controversial, these extreme conditions should help to quantify them better.…. (Page 44)

     A review of the above paper: A 3,000-Year Record of Solar Activity by CO2 Science

     According to Usoskin et al. (2014), the Sun “shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions.”
     Now, however, in an attempt to overcome such uncertainties, Usoskin et al. “present the first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity” covering the past 3,000 years, which record allowed them “to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of detail.”

     As a “unique” and “rare” event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time and effort would be spent by the IPCC and others in answering that question.
     Instead, IPCC scientists have conducted relatively few studies of the Sun’s influence on modern warming, assuming that the temperature influence of this rare and unique Grand maximum of solar activity, which has occurred only once in the past 3,000 years, is far inferior to the radiative power provided by the rising CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere.

     Another review of “A History of Solar Activity over Millennia” by Ilya G. Usoskin
     Grand maxima of solar activity:
     http://solarphysics.livingreviews.org/open?pubNo=lrsp-2008-3&page=articlesu16.html

     Keeping possible uncertainties in mind, let us consider a list of the largest grand maxima (the 50 year smoothed sunspot number stably exceeding 50), identified for the last 11,400 years using 14C data, as shown in Table 2 (after Usoskin et al., 2007). A total of 19 grand maxima have been identified with a total duration of around 1030 years, suggesting that the sun spends around 10% of its time in an active state. A statistical analysis of grand-maxima–occurrence time suggests that they do not follow long-term cyclic variations, but like grand minima, are defined by stochastic/chaotic processes. The distribution of the waiting time between consecutive grand maxima is not as clear as that for grand minima, but also hints at a deviation from exponential law. The duration of grand maxima has a smooth distribution, which nearly exponentially decreases towards longer intervals. Most of the reconstructed grand maxima (about 75%) were not longer than 50 years, and only four grand minima (including the modern one) have been longer than 70 years. This suggest that the probability of the modern active-sun episode continuing is low5 (cf. Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008)

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2. Gail Combs says:

   April 29, 2015 at 11:52 am

   What did you expect Tony, the Union of Concerned Scientists has gone to the dogs.

   October 7, 2011 The newest member of the Union of Concerned Scientists

   http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/kenji_watts.jpg

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   • gator69 says:

     April 29, 2015 at 12:16 pm

     Please stop attacking dogs. 😉

     Reply
     • Gail Combs says:

       April 29, 2015 at 12:31 pm

       My equines enjoy attacking them.

       A friend’s Belgian mare (with new foal) trampled a doberman. The neighbor had been warned repeatedly not to let his dog chase the horses and he ignored the warning so he got hamburger back instead of a dog the last time he let his dog loose to chase the horses.

       My mare was nice she only broke the dog’s leg….

       Reply
       • gator69 says:

         April 29, 2015 at 12:37 pm

         My mom”s doberman (Sam) gets along well with just about all animals except river otters and horses. Sam chases the otters, and is spooked by horses.
3. I. Lou Minotti says:

   April 29, 2015 at 12:21 pm

   I’m thankful we’re not still mowing snow.

   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8kHtg8o7Io&feature=youtu.be

   Reply
   • dmacleo says:

     April 29, 2015 at 7:42 pm

     I’ve never mowed snow but I have used my tractor mounted snowblower to move leaves LOL

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   • Robertv says:

     April 30, 2015 at 6:11 am

     Not only ICE land has unusually cold spring weather. Maybe they should move to GREEN land.

     http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

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   • Robertv says:

     April 30, 2015 at 6:16 am

     No. That would be from bad to worse.

     http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp2.html

     Reply
4. dmacleo says:

   April 29, 2015 at 7:40 pm

   30’s (f) every morning still (MID MAINE)and some right at freezing mark. then during the day we are getting a lot of rain and the flooding is dislodging root balls.
   been on generator twice this week once due to a 120 ft tree (approx 3 ft diameter) taking the lines off 3 poles.
   house down the road from me had 60 foot tree tip due to rootball and pulled the service mast out of house, as it hit initially it rebounded enough (after bending service) to give enough slack so the wire wrapped around service thereby rendering the disconnect useless.
   so a 60 foot tree tipped partially over and a 15 foot piece of service mast and 80 feet of phone and power line decided to take the place of a lane on a small country road.

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   • Gail Combs says:

     April 29, 2015 at 7:53 pm

     At least we are only having to deal with upper thirties low forties in the morning plus wind. Of Course I am in Mid NC — The Sunny south. Thank goodness mud season is almost over.

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5. William Reeve says:

   April 29, 2015 at 7:51 pm

   http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/more-snow-to-hit-the-maritimes/50186/

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6. sabretoothed says:

   April 30, 2015 at 12:00 am

   wow even after adjusting upwards its colder lol, imagine the REAL temperature!

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