Learning To Think Like A Climate Expert

Based on a single data point in 2007, our top climate experts extrapolated an ice-free Arctic in 2008.

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Expert: Arctic polar cap may disappear this summer_English_Xinhua

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North Pole could be ice free in 2008 – earth – 25 April 2008 – New Scientist Environment

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One Response to Learning To Think Like A Climate Expert

  1. I can’t think anything more stupid and unscientific than predicting a future value, or estimating a past value, largely based on a trend:

    Average height of a male in the Netherlands has gained 20 cm in the last 150 years, according to military records. At the time Leif Eriksson landed his boat in North America (Around year 1000) they must have been the size of Coca Cola bottles.

    If we could predict the future based on trends we would all be very rich from our investments in the stock market.

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