Time To Connect The Dots

Ten years ago, experts told us that hurricanes like Katrina and Rita were the new normal, due to global warming.

ScreenHunter_10077 Aug. 14 09.07

Time to Connect the Dots – The New York Times

The period since has been the quietest on record for US hurricanes, with no major (category 3-5) hurricanes.

ScreenHunter_10076 Aug. 14 09.02

Weather Street: 2015 Atlantic Hurricanes and Tropical Storms

It is time to connect the dots, and recognize that climate experts have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

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5 Responses to Time To Connect The Dots

  1. Realist says:

    A 10 year hurricane drought in the US is pretty impressive. However, we are overdue for a big one. I will make a prediction. When the next major hurricane does hit the US, all we will hear is how it was a CO2 fueled storm, global warming to blame, etc.

  2. jaymtee says:

    Globally, hurricane occurance is not down. Be thankful you don’t live in the NW Pacific region.

    http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

    • Realist says:

      “Globally, hurricane occurance is not down”
      Its not up either. According to IPCC AR5, there is no trend in global hurricane activity.
      https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter02_FINAL.pdf
      Chapter 2.6.3
      – Current data sets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century and it remains uncertain whether any
      reported long-term increases in tropical cyclone frequency are robust, after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities.
      – No robust trends in annual numbers
      of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been
      identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.
      – Callaghan and Power (2011) find a statistically significant decrease
      in Eastern Australia land-falling tropical cyclones since the late 19th
      century although including 2010/2011 season data this trend becomes
      non-significant.
      – Significant trends are not found in other oceans on shorter
      time scales.

      If there is no obvious trend in hurricane frequency over the last 100 years (CO2 has increased 33% since then), its pretty safe to say that CO2 does not cause more frequent hurricanes.

      • jaymtee says:

        I agree, there’s no long term trend in global occurrence hurricanes – neither up or down. I was pointing out that the remarkable “drought” in land-falling Atlantic hurricanes does not indicate that globally hurricane activity is lessened.

        I am concerned that people along the coastal regions of the eastern US are getting complacent. If we do get a big hurricane that make landfall, it could be catastrophic. We could easily have a ‘below average’ year in terms of number of storms and still get slammed… remember Hurricane Andrew…

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