More Ice In The Western Arctic Than Forty Years Ago

16 Responses to More Ice In The Western Arctic Than Forty Years Ago

1. Conrad Ziefle says:

   September 23, 2021 at 3:31 pm

   In the 21st century, it has definitely been less than the part of the graph of the 20th century. We need to see many years before the start of the graph to see whether it’s all normal or if one part is different from normal. Maybe they don’t have the measurements before the start of the graph, and therefore no one has any idea what the normal range is.
   From your cyclic graph though, we can see that we have been below normal for the last 10 years or so, but seeming to get back into the normal range this year, the hottest year in NASA and NOAA’s jimmied up record.

   Reply
   • The Dark Lord says:

     September 23, 2021 at 6:59 pm

     normal is not the correct term … its the average over the time period … there is no such thing as “normal” …

     Reply
     • Conrad Ziefle says:

       September 23, 2021 at 9:24 pm

       By normal, I mean within the two standard deviations denoted by the gray band in the cyclic charts that usually accompany these Arctic ice posts. That’s broader than a simple mean. I view deviation outside two standard deviations as unusual for anything that has historically followed a pattern that is fairly predictable with a high level of statistical confidence.

       Reply
2. Jim Hunt says:

   September 23, 2021 at 3:36 pm

   Hello again Tony,

   I feel sure you’ll want to make it clear that chart relates to the Canadian Ice Service’s idea of what constitutes the “Western Arctic”?

   Do you by any chance have a similar chart of their “Eastern Arctic”?

   Reply
   • stewartpid says:

     September 23, 2021 at 5:46 pm

     Jim the little location map at the upper left corner makes it pretty clear what the area the graph covers is …. unless u have the IQ of a turnip that is.
     Get stuffed Jim.

     Reply
     • Steve says:

       September 23, 2021 at 7:03 pm

       Tony deals in facts and they speak for themselves. No need for name calling on his site. I’m not a moderator by any means so maybe I’m out of line.

       Reply
     • Jim Hunt says:

       September 23, 2021 at 10:01 pm

       Good evening Stewart,

       Thanks so much for your kind words. I was referring to the headline, not the map. It could be misleading for anyone familiar with the academic literature on the topic of “Western Arctic sea ice”. See for example this recent paper in Nature Communications:

       https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21830-z

       “Recent rapid Arctic sea-ice reduction has been well documented in observations, reconstructions and model simulations. However, the rate of sea ice loss is highly variable in both time and space. The western Arctic has seen the fastest sea-ice decline, with substantial interannual and decadal variability”

       Thanks also for the link. Do you suppose that Tony has ever clicked on the “Eastern Arctic” part of the CIS map?

       Reply
       • Tel says:

         September 26, 2021 at 9:11 am

         The headline of the paper that you link to could be equally misleading … it does not satisfy your own criteria that it must make clear who’s definition of “Western Arctic” is being used.

         There are thumbnail maps in the paper, although those are not clear either, but it appears like they are measuring a region across the coast of Alaska and then some distance across the coast of Russia as well. Generally I have always thought of Russia as Eastern but since the paper you link to has many Chinese authors, it’s reasonable to presume that Russia might be Western from their perspective.

         Hey I just had a thought … anyone familiar with the academic literature on the topic of “Western Arctic sea ice” would already know that with standard polar geometry, the concept of East and West is relative to your reference point.

         Reply
         • Jim Hunt says:

           September 26, 2021 at 9:09 pm

           Hi Tel,

           Here in the once United Kingdom we are the proud possessors of the Greenwich Meridian, which is an internationally agreed reference point. Zero hours UTC etc.

           Head north from there into the Arctic Ocean, then consider what’s east of zero degrees and what’s west thereof.

           How does that sound to you?
   • Crashex says:

     September 25, 2021 at 9:53 pm

     The Canadians do have an Eastern Region. Of course, that is the eastern half of their region of interest; largely, the eastern half of the archipelago and baffin bay.

     It similarly shows the current year’s ice area for this week is greater then the long term average and greater than the level 40 years ago (1981).

     Reply
   • Crashex says:

     September 25, 2021 at 9:55 pm

     The Canadians do have an Eastern Region. Of course, that is the eastern half of their region of interest; largely, the eastern half of the archipelago and baffin bay.

     It similarly shows the current year’s ice area for this week is greater then the long term average and greater than the level 40 years ago (1981).

     https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20210920180000_CVCHDCTEA_0011771089.pdf

     Reply
     • Jim Hunt says:

       September 26, 2021 at 9:13 pm

       Hi Crash,

       It’s certainly not east of the Greenwich Meridian though, is it?

       Do you suppose that Tony has ever clicked on a CIS stage of development chart?

       Perhaps you could also peruse this blog and find one of those for me? Failing that a relevant one from the CIS site would do at a pinch.

       Reply
3. stewartpid says:

   September 23, 2021 at 5:48 pm

   Jim here is the link to Canadian Ice Services … fill ur boots re Eastern Arctic etc
   https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions.html

   Reply
4. Jimd1958 says:

   September 24, 2021 at 6:38 am

   1979 was supposedly the coldest year in Northern Hemisphere during 20th Century. So a slow reduction in ice coverage could be expected.
   This is similar to the point of The Mini Ice Age having the greatest extent of glaciers since the Younger Dryas period.
   Everything is cyclical and relative to recent events.

   Reply
   • Tel says:

     September 26, 2021 at 9:15 am

     The now famous Time Magazine cover “How to Survive the Coming Ice Age” was published in 1977 … this means something!!!

     Reply
5. Jim Hunt says:

   September 24, 2021 at 12:08 pm

   Afternoon Tony (UTC),

   FYI – Here are the latest Canadian sea ice facts from the CIS:

   https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/status/1441372054440185857

   Reply