With ice extent above the 21st century average and little trend for seventeen years, experts have pushed their predictions of an ice-free Arctic out a few years.
“the earliest ice-free conditions (the first single occurrence of an ice-free Arctic) could occur in 2020–2030s under all emission trajectories and are likely to occur by 2050. However, daily September ice-free conditions are expected approximately 4?years earlier on average, with the possibility of preceding monthly metrics by 10?years. Consistently ice-free September conditions (frequent occurrences of an ice-free Arctic) are anticipated by mid-century (by 2035–2067)”
10.1038_s43017-023-00515-9-references
Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean | Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod_test/ice/index/v2p2/nh/osisaf_nh_sie_daily.txt
Perhaps a more reasonable forecast would be 3550.
Was there ever one of those supersmart articles to explain us why all the other ice free articles and predictions have failed so far?
Al Gore would really like to know it.
Here some other prediction
“As far as I’m informed I don’t think Trump will become the president of the United States ”
French WEF President Macron
at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ , they do a median from 1981-2010. I’m curious how this line stacks up against your 2000-2024 line.
The maximum extent for 2024 was about a half million km square greater than in 1974. To the degree that the minimum is somehow related to the maximum, it’s not certain which way the trend is headed.
We should use 1974 as starting point and average for sea ice extent,
that would end all debate.
NEVER a word about Antarctica- never- never a word about the equator and plus minus 30 degrees above / below – one of the few sciences that is SETTLED – maybe WOKE bowing to the feet of lord Greta
In fact less Arctic sea ice will be found during centennial lows in solar activity. Like the history that Tony found of Danish ships sailing far into the Arctic in the 1120’s, and British naval ships observing a great loss of sea ice 1815-1817 during the Dalton Minimum.