A Real Hockey Stick

7 Responses to A Real Hockey Stick

1. Conrad Ziefle says:

   May 18, 2024 at 5:04 am

   It’s funny that they would correlate a 12 % decline in the economy with a 1 degree rise in temperature, an obscure and convoluted relationship, while they ignore 4 years of Democratic Party rule in the US and their Draconian rules about energy use, or the WEF and the EU and their minions forcing industrial and agricultural shutdowns in the name of climate change, or demands to change power sources from reliable fossil fuels to intermittent medieval sources of energy, wind and solar. All of these things have direct and clear impacts on the economy, and are ignored. It seems that the Aztec priests are at their voodoo sleight of hand tricks again trying to obfuscate their failures and the damage they have caused.

   Reply
   • Gordon Vigurs says:

     May 18, 2024 at 7:08 am

     Incompetence and stupidity have always been explained away using scapegoats; non-existent witches, Stalin’s show trials, NAZI persecution of the Jews – it all reflects a certain mind set which is incapable of owning its mistakes, or cannot afford to admit failure. Such people do not have a reverse gear, and their ilk are currently dragging us into WW3, rather than admit they shouldn’t have obstructed the Minsk Accord back in March 2022.

     Reply
   • arn says:

     May 18, 2024 at 7:29 am

     Can you imagine what it would mean if economies were so fragile that a single degree of warming could have such an impact?

     There are always temperature fluctuations around the world and some places may be 1 degree or more warmer for some time,
     yet noone has never ever observed such a massive and superobvious GDP decline before in any of those places.
     (and also keep in mind : how can a warming USA that is 1.5 degrees warmer = loss of 18% GDP still afford to sent hundreds of billions of dollars to Ukraine and have a trillion dollar military budget?).

     Another strange thing is- since the end of the global cooling scare there has been indeed some warming,but I somehow doubt that US gdp went down by 12% as result.

     Another interessting thing is that the rise of china happened all along the global warming era.
     They had an average of 10%+ economic growth during all the time and simply ignored the 12% decline.

     Either china has a Potemkin economy or these experts use the 12% decline of the GDP to shift the green new deal related economical shrinking towards climate.

     Reply
2. arn says:

   May 18, 2024 at 7:04 am

   Usually it is 2* or 3* worse than expected.
   6* worse is quiet a new dimension of fear monger….predictive failure.

   If you have a legion of super experts whose only job is to make global warming propaganda and sell the apocalypse then it is quiet an achievenment when they all get it always so wrong.
   Not by 20%,50%,70% or 100% which would already be a complete failure and should get them all fired,
   but by 600%.
   Any illiterate moron can have such an ‘accuracy’ in predicting things.

   And of course , just as with sea level rise, not a single thing can be observed in the real world.
   Neither GDP nor food production have been going down despite some serious attempts to sabotage energy supply.

   Another interessting thing may be that those experts who are always so wrong with their global warming selling predictions are always wrong in the same direction – they always underestimate the impact (which is quiet odd for screaming propagandists) they never overestimate things.
   And even if they do and fail 100% ,as with sea level rise, they either ignore it or pretend that they are right.

   Reply
3. dm says:

   May 18, 2024 at 10:48 am

   Those who fail to learn from history are doomed …:

   The alarming study ignores the rise and falls of great empires over thousands of years. ALL the great empires around the Mediterranean developed during warming phases. They tended to collapse during cooling phases.

   Also, the Dark Ages occurred during a cooling phase. It was a time of extensive misery–plagues, famines, small mindedness …

   Reply
4. Disillusioned says:

   May 18, 2024 at 1:19 pm

   The yet to be peer-reviewed paper was written by (in reverse order):

   Diego R. Känzig
   Faculty Research Fellow
   Northwestern University

   Programs

   Monetary Economics

   Contact

   [email protected]
   Twitter

   https://www.diegokaenzig.com/home

   About this author at RePEc
   Address
   Department of Economics
   Northwestern University
   Kellogg Global Hub
   2211 Campus Drive
   Evanston, IL 60208

   – and –

   Adrien Bilal
   Faculty Research Fellow
   Harvard University

   Programs

   Economic Fluctuations and Growth
   International Trade and Investment

   Contact

   [email protected]
   Twitter

   https://sites.google.com/site/adrienbilal/

   Address
   Department of Economics
   Harvard University
   1805 Cambridge Street
   Cambridge, MA 02138

   In the past year, it looks as if Bilal perhaps found Holy Grail of funding. His last two papers (including this latest) are:

   The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature
   May 2024 – Working Paper32450
   Author(s) – Adrien Bilal & Diego R. Känzig

   This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. We exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on time-series variation. A 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. Global temperature shocks correlate much more strongly with extreme climatic events than the country-level temperature shocks commonly used in the panel literature, explaining why our estimate is substantially larger. We use our reduced-form evidence to estimate structural damage functions in a standard neoclassical growth model. Our results imply a Social Cost of Carbon of $1,056 per ton of carbon dioxide. A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates and imply that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

   and …

   Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States
   June 2023 – Working Paper31323
   Author(s) – Adrien Bilal & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

   We evaluate how anticipation and adaptation shape the aggregate and local costs of climate change. We develop a dynamic spatial model of the U.S. economy and its 3,143 counties that features costly forward-looking migration and capital investment decisions. Recent methodological advances that leverage the `Master Equation’ representation of the economy make the model tractable. We estimate the county-level impact of severe storms and heat waves over the 20th century on local income, population, and investment. The estimated impact of storms matches that of capital depreciation shocks in the model, while heat waves resemble combined amenity and productivity shocks. We then estimate migration and investment elasticities, as well as the structural damage functions, by matching these reduced-form results in our framework. Our findings show, first, that the impact of climate on capital depreciation magnifies the U.S. aggregate welfare costs of climate change twofold to nearly 5in 2023 under a business-as-usual warming scenario. Second, anticipation of future climate damages amplifies climate-induced worker and investment mobility, as workers and capitalists foresee the slow build-up of climate change. Third, migration reduces substantially the spatial variance in the welfare impact of climate change. Although both anticipation and migration are important for local impacts, their effect on aggregate U.S. losses from climate change is small.

   Reply
5. william says:

   May 23, 2024 at 9:55 am

   6 of the 10 fastest-growing economies are in Africa- the hottest continent. The population of Africa will doubly be 2050 – climate change moves in mysterious ways!

   Reply