Back To The Future

The National Academy of Sciences asks “When could scientists have first known about climate change?”

National Academy of Sciences on X: “When could scientists have first known about climate change? A thought experiment by #NASmembers Ben Santer, Susan Solomon & Qiang Fu shows the fingerprints appeared early on—demonstrating the power of long-term climate monitoring. Read more in @sciam: https://t.co/ZktHdP2D7E” / X

Fifty years ago they answered the question.

“The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.”

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 1975

National Geographic Magazine Archive

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23 Responses to Back To The Future

  1. arn says:

    Back then they knew that they don’t know.
    Now they pretend that they do
    though none of their many models can predict the future nor the past(before adjustment).
    Maybe the total failures of their ice age and warming predictions encouraged them to believe that they are supercompetent.

    Climate Science made probably the biggest progress of any science in history.
    They went from no being able to read thermometers a hundred yeare ago
    to predicting an ice age to predict a warming
    to reading climate fingerprints within only a century.

  2. Bob G says:

    Meanwhile, back in South Central Minnesota we can’t even hit 85 degrees in the next 10 day forecast. I’m old enough to remember when it occasionally hit 100 in early August. crops have never looked better at this time of year. Viva La climate change!!!

  3. Greg in NZ says:

    The ‘members’ (Santer, Solomon & Fu) have moved on from reading tea leaves and chicken entrails to now reading ‘fingerprints’? How sciency!

    Also , they’ve misspelled @sciam: there’s no ‘i’ in SCAM.

  4. conrad ziefle says:

    It’s very simple: The climate change that they reckoned could only be first known when they first reckoned it, and the next climate change that they fabricate will only be known when they fabricate it. The basic principle is, scientist can only know that which doesn’t exist when they first declare that it exists.

  5. Bob G says:

    Beaking news…. the world is running out of oil, oops. postponed again. BP announces biggest oil discovery for them in the past 25 years. it’s in Brazil. https://lite.cnn.com/2025/08/04/business/bp-oil-gas-discovery-intl. in other breaking news…Robert Mueller of trump Russia collusion Fame, his people have confirmed what we all saw when he testified b 4 Congress…. we saw that he’s brain-addled. he’s now living in a dementia facility. Google it.

    • conrad ziefle says:

      Unfortunately, it’s in Brazil. That will keep the commies in power for decades.

    • arn says:

      Only experts (and Robert Muller) would have thought that humanity would run out of worlds
      most abudant liquid after water
      within a few decades?
      The same experts who think that green energy is cheaper and reliable.

  6. Bob G says:

    I see a popular News website says that Phoenix Arizona had a high temperature today of 120. weather underground reports that the High temp in Phoenix today was 114. in central Minnesota today I think our high was a scorching 78. apparently 78 is not unhealthy as our local post office was told to not have the AC set cooler than 78…. a number of years ago, to save on the power bill

    • conrad ziefle says:

      They like to compute the “feel’s like” temperature, which includes the thermal effect of humidity, and then compare that to the old days when absolute temperature only was recorded. Then they can say it is getting hotter. Of course, in the old days they had humidity, too; they just didn’t falsify the temperature reading by incorporating a calculation into it. Regardless of how correct the thermal adjustment for heat content due to humidity is, it is not the reading on the thermometer. I can venture to say, that the thermal impact of humidity is not the same for every person, or every species of animals or plants, and for comparison purposes, apples should be compared to apples, not apple pie.

  7. People join professional institutions because it is required for their accreditation, little more. In my experience, membership is more a substitute for, rather than an indication, of competence. I don’t recall I K Brunel joining the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, nor were the Wright Brothers members of the AIAA. People understand gentleman’s clubs, they are not so hot on actual engineering or science.

  8. John Francis says:

    Hope you have all seen the report on potential/ probable effect of the star link satellites as they decay from low earth orbit???
    This is planned so updated units can be installed.
    Ever hear that the UK has been dispersing aluminum particulates in atmosphere to cool England??
    Check out agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029..
    I am really upset that they’re trashing our atmosphere so people can stream video??
    Check it out. Each satellite is going to deposit roughly 60lbs of material, mostly aluminum

    • conrad ziefle says:

      We should declare that England is conducting crimes against humanity the instant that they purposely pollute the atmosphere with any particles, and take them to the international court system, and not waiting for the result of the court deliberation, shoot down any aircraft which we suspect is engaged in that activity.
      I just heard on the news that they are having a mini-revolt in the smaller English towns against Sharia England. We should enable such revolutionaries. Possibly we can offer any regions of Europe of some size similar to a US county or larger, to become instant territories of the US upon a vote, make it fair, say of 60% of its citizens.

  9. John Francis says:

    BTW, I see Space weather.com has story on star link satellites today

  10. Brodirt says:

    There’s an obvious distinction between climate change and Climate Change™

  11. Bob G says:

    If any of you are wondering about my well-being…. after attending last night’s outdoor concert at Lake George, in St Cloud Minnesota, where the temperature was a blistering 79° at 7:00 p.m. and a bit cooler after…. the gal pal and me made it home alive. … close call though. lol. it’s now past midnight and the windows are open …I don’t even have the AC on. still waiting for the greenhouse as the late great John Daly always said. also still waiting for the climate crisis. oops, forgot to mention a shark bit somebody somewhere… so that’s got to be climate related. lol

    • arn says:

      Lucky you.
      99.99% are not being cancelled because weather.
      So it’s about as dangerous as co2.
      The only that happened to be cancelled are those of Steve Miller.
      And only those in the year 2525…2025.

  12. Tel says:

    I reckon that Noah and the Great Flood might have been a bit of a tip off that something was up.

  13. The simple fact is this. I strongly doubt that even with the best will … and that there is not … that we will get enough data before almost everyone here is dead, for anyone to say with any confidence whether there is any change.

    Because following the era when lying was not just encouraged, but a requirement to have a job, we now have a massive chasm in the temperature data that no amount of post processing and filtering can ever make tolerable for scientific assessment of temperature change.

    So, even with the best will, we can only start from a new base, with a new global network of world class temperature measuring sites … which will likely take a decade, and likely be impossible in today’s highly charged global situation. But, even if it were possible, it would still take decades to get the first inkling of any ongoing change, if any.

    And that my friends, is what this generation of scoundrels have bequeathed to the world.

    • Francis Barnett says:

      One positive thing about comparing the ’76 heatwave to a little bit of warmth today is that it blows a big hole in the “CO2 causes dangerous global warming” theory.
      1976 CO2 332.02 ppm Statista
      2025 CO2 425.6 ppm
      93.5 ppm less CO2 (that’s 21.9% less CO2) in 1976 than today and it was hotter back then.
      Try explaining that away please climate cultists.

      • conrad ziefle says:

        Michael Mann wrote a formula for undamped oscillations and then declared, since he wrote it, CO2 must cause the weather to do it. Now that shows how stupid he is, why wouldn’t he declare that since he wrote it the stock market would do it, and then reap gains from the extreme swings? If you think you are god, at least, apply your powers to something valuable.

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