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How appropriate that he’s got “Collaborators”, eh?
yes, but just wait until the ice is gone during the winters!!!…shaking head….
I guess they didn’t get the XKCD comic on extrapolating.
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/extrapolating.png
Did anyone ever question as to why the trend through 1998 was essentially positive and then suddenly start tanking?
-Scott
They need to rethink their volume equations. This is a good year to do so, with the melt and melt-water at a minimum. You find a time and place where the ice remains as thick, (un-melted by water underneath,) and locate two large, flat plates, moving towards each other. You know area is decreasing, as a pressure ridge piles up where the two plates meet, but volume remains the same. From then on that plate, (or two plates joined to be one,) has a higher volume attached to it. Even if the two pieces split (forming a “lead”) and some open water appears between the two, the total volume of the two remains higher.
With so much grant money floating around, surely there is some fellow who could take on this task.
So, what makes the authors think that a non-linear system will have a linear trend?
They start by ignoring all data prior to 1979, and calculate trends from a local maximum.