Trenberth made this brilliant claim 15 years ago.
The recent evolution of ENSO, with a major new El Niño event underway in 1997, reinforces the evidence that the tendency for more El Niño and fewer La Niña events since the late 1970s is highly unusual and very unlikely to be accounted for solely by natural variability.
And now we are facing an unprecedented third straight La Nina
it would be unprecedented to see a switch back to La Niña before 2013
Since Trenberth started blaming high ENSO values on your SUV, ENSO has been tanking
Maybe Trenberth meant to say he was missing a ‘head’, and not ‘heat’.
Another of may alarmist contentions that was completely wrong.
He keeps guessing and always get it wrong. Surely, that’s a marketable talent? Perhaps he’d like to join the University of Reading’s Dept of We Haven’t a Clue who often say the opposite a couple of years after having been sure something was ‘very likely’ to happen (drier summer/wetter winters for the UK springs to mind – recently reversed to be wetter summers/drier winters)
Not it’s not a marketable talent. In science you can be wrong an infinite number of ways and right only one way.
This paper seems to a perfect illustration of everything that is wrong in this field. Grab a data set that contains, essentially, a random sequence. Compare one portion of the data set to another doing a complex statistical test (in the absence of any sort of model of the underlying mechanisms involved of course). Keep doing this until you find <0.05% significance with something you believe in anyway. Declare boldly (absence intelligence), that this cannot be due to "natural" processes. Later on, let it be demonstrated empirically, that you're an arse.
Hilarious they are trying to tell us what will happen in 20 years time…CFS cannot predict Enso 1 week out…September it was still going for an El nino, despite atmosphere being decoupled with oceans, and the oceans starting to cool from early August.
Reblogged this on The Real World and commented:
Why are these clowns not held accountable or sacked exactly?