The odds of you winning the lottery are extremely small. The odds of somebody winning the lottery are quite good.
NOAA has adopted the scam of conflating the two statistics, i.e.
The odds of a 6 inch daily rain this year in Boulder are 1,000:1
It is a garbage statistic. The meaningful statistic is :
The odds of a 6 inch daily rain along the Colorado Front Range this year are 3:1
Had the 6 inch rain fallen at a different location along the Front Range, they would have moved their scam statistic to that location. Junk science at its worst.
“Figures don’t lie but liars figure” at its finest!
I cannot understand why their models and predictions are so very wrong.
Alarmists make that mistake quite often, they don’t understand the difference between case probability vs class probability.
NOAA is obviously unaware of the Texas Sharp Shooter fallacy. But when one has an agenda, the shortcut of painting a bulls-eye around on-message data is just too tempting.