Understanding 99% Certainty Among Climate Scientists

There is something fascinating about science.  One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.

  • Mark Twain

Thirty years ago, NASA’s top climate expert said he was 99% certain that the 1988 US drought was caused by the greenhouse effect.

10 Jul 1988, 29 – The Daily Spectrum

Droughts have become less common in the US over time, and there nothing particularly unusual about the 1988 drought.

Climate at a Glance | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)

Hansen later contradicted himself, but that is what 99% certain settled science is all about.

NASA GISS: Science Briefs: Whither U.S. Climate?

After decades of failed predictions, lies and junk science, Democrats recognize James Hansen as a prophet.

The Argus-Press – Google News Archive Search

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13 Responses to Understanding 99% Certainty Among Climate Scientists

  1. Lasse says:

    Never ever give a statement that can be checked during Your lifetime!
    5-10 Years from 2008 is now!
    Proven wrong and still listened to?

  2. Stewart Pid says:

    Which one is Hansen? The good looking guy on the right?

  3. richard says:

    This beautifully illustrates whether Greenland ( or anywhere else ) was gaining or losing ice the alarmists would be on hand to blame it on the same thing-

    1989-
    these guys are great-

    “WASHINGTON: Environmentalists
    fear a global warming trend because it
    might melt the polar ice caps and cause
    massive flooding, so a report that the polar
    ice is getting thicker is good news, right?
    Wrong.
    Scientists from the Goddard Space
    Flight Centre in Greenbelt, Maryland, said
    yesterday that the ice sheet over Green-
    land was getting thicker but concluded this
    “may be a characteristic of warmer cli-
    mates in the polar regions”.
    So thicker ice results from higher tem-
    peratures?
    “It’s consistent with warmer tempera-
    tures. It’s consistent with the idea that this
    century is warmer than the last century,”
    explained Dr Jay Zwally of Goddard’s
    Oceans and Ice Branch, who led the God-
    dard research team”

    • gator69 says:

      For the truly religious, there is nothing that does not reaffirm their faith.

      I’m also reminded of Abraham Maslow’s observation…

      “If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

    • Steven Fraser says:

      ‘May’ and ‘Might’… not very convincing.

  4. Steven Fraser says:

    On a local note, I measured 1″ of ‘Texas Drought’ in my gauge overnight.

  5. Chris says:

    That one percent shadow of doubt that you may be completely and utterly incorrect.

  6. Tom Bakert says:

    “After decades of failed predictions, lies and junk science, Democrats recognize James Hansen as a prophet.”

    This is exactly the type of scathing sarcasm that makes me laugh out loud and return to read this blog on a daily basis. Thank you, Mr. Heller, for your dedication and hard work.

  7. terrence says:

    In what year exactly did they start to campaign about greenhouse gas? This is from 1988, and the journalist still puts inverted commas for ‘greenhouse gas’. Maybe it was a year earlier? Right after the anti-freon Montreal Agreements of 1985, aka ‘the warm-up’?

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