Visualizing The Arctic Meltdown

Ten years ago, President Obama’s science advisor predicted ice-free winters in the Arctic.  Let’s see how his forecast is doing.

…if you lose the summer sea ice, there are phenomena that could lead you not so very long thereafter to lose the winter sea ice as well. And if you lose that sea ice year round, it’s going to mean drastic climatic change all over the hemisphere.

– John Holdren, 2009

January sea ice extent has varied in a narrow range since 1979, with this year a little below average.

Spreadsheet

There is ice surrounding much of Svalbard.

N_20190124_extn_v3.0.png (420×500)

In 1922, there was no ice around Svalbard (Spitzbergen.) Apparently there is more ice in the Eastern Arctic (Laptev and Kara Seas) than there was in 1922 – when the Arctic was melting down and experiencing a “radical change in climatic conditions.”

ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

“Scientists warn” that more Eastern Arctic ice than 1922 is an indication of a tipping point, because climate scientists are a bunch of incompetent hacks – who are paid to make up nonsense which journalists can latch on to.

‘Tipping point’ risk for Arctic hotspot – BBC News

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18 Responses to Visualizing The Arctic Meltdown

  1. Philippe (Pip) Roulet says:

    I am fascinated by all this, and have always felt this was being lied about. I have another concern, yesterday I heard a labour MP (uk) state on the radio that “last year was the hottest sea water temperatures ever”. I was driving and dont know which MP but it was to do with his return from Davos.

    Last year in the UK it was HOT and sunny, but only for June and July. people remember a hot year but have forgotten the cold winter and spring with snow in the UK. I recall 2014 was called the hottest year ever but the 1930’s were hotter. Would appreciate Tony checking out these claims before it gains ground.

    • arn says:

      Before you believe in the “hottest sea water temperature EVER”
      you should ask yourself:
      “Do they even have a full coverage of sea water temperatures?”
      We are talking about 40mio+ squaremiles,
      (and if they have)
      “Since when do they have this coverage?”

      How high is the “resolution”?(one station per 1000 square miles,or 10.000 or 100.000??)

      Do they talk about surface tempratures or overall ocean temperatures(average
      ocean depth is about 1500 metres).
      Overall temperatures can not be measured with satallites.

      Now lets’s say they have full coverage for 15 years.(30 years for sure not,as the scam started 30 years ago.Then you need years planning,of aquiring money and builiding many thousands of those machines).
      We have many dozens of countries that are located at the sea.
      If you have many dozens of countries but just 15 years of data you most probably have at least one country that will set a new heat/cold record every year.

      Are they even trying to be objective and fair or
      do they ignore the cooling records and cherrypick short periods that fit
      into their agenda+data adjustments.

      I am pretty sure if we look closer into available sea temperature data we will find many many plottholes that are covered with an amazing lack of data.

      And the most important question:
      How can it be that the John Holdren who is predicting ice free winters now
      was the same John Holdren who was predicting the coming ice age of the 70ies(same goes for Gavin Schmidt and other preachers of extremist science)

      • Gamecock says:

        Arn, the Argo distribution is one per 37,000 square miles.

        They drift. Which DOES NOT mean they sample different water. The location is new, but they are still in the water they drift with.

        40% of the oceans are below where Argo measures. Hence are not measured.

        Also note that Argo is a 21st century development.

        ‘ In 1999, to combat this lack of data, an innovative step was taken by scientists to greatly improve the collection of observations inside the ocean through increased sampling of old and new quantities and increased coverage in terms of time and area.

        That step was Argo. ‘

        To whatever extent that Argo data is considered to be accurate, there is double ought nothing to compare it to. Any assertions of changes from before 2000 are completely fabricated and baseless.

        We don’t know a global mean sea temperature.

    • Anon says:

      Pip,

      You might want to start here:

      Climate Science: Is it currently designed to answer questions?

      Richard S. Lindzen: Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a lead author of Chapter 7, “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks,” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report on climate change.


      Another is the hierarchical nature of formal scientific organizations whereby a small executive council can speak on behalf of thousands of scientists as well as govern the distribution of ‘carrots and sticks’ whereby reputations are made and broken. The above factors are all amplified by the need for government funding. When an issue becomes a vital part of a political agenda, as is the case with climate, then the politically desired position becomes a goal rather than a consequence of scientific research. This paper will deal with the origin of the cultural changes and with specific examples of the operation and interaction of these factors. In particular, we will show how political bodies act to control scientific institutions, how scientists adjust both data and even theory to accommodate politically correct positions, and how opposition to these positions is disposed of.

      http://blog.friendsofscience.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Lindzen12-March-ClimateScienceNOTansweringQ.pdf

      Don’t take Lindzen’s word for it, but go ahead and fact check the assertions (I bolded) above. You can do it on your own, or ask anyone here a RCS for a hand.

      Having done it myself, he is spot-on about all of them.

  2. Stewart Pid says:

    Griff will have his panties in a knot yet again!!

    • gregole says:

      Griff has it covered. Ice-free Arctic 2030. She originally responded to me with 2030 to 2050; but upped her game to a solid 2030.

      I can hardly wait. Just imagine: expanded tourism, shipping lanes open, and opportunities for mineral extraction. Can’t happen too soon as far as I’m concerned.

      But I wonder why there’s still so much blasted ice up there?

  3. gregole says:

    “Scientists warn” that more Eastern Arctic ice than 1922 is an indication of a tipping point, because climate scientists are a bunch of incompetent hacks – who are paid to make up nonsense which journalists can latch on to…

    And then I ran across this gem:

    Steve McIntyre, who had dealings with many of the main climate actors remarked:

    “…In my opinion, most climate scientists on the Team would have been high school teachers in an earlier generation – if they were lucky. Many/most of them have degrees from minor universities. It’s much easier to picture people like Briffa or Jones as high school teachers than as Oxford dons of a generation ago. Or as minor officials in a municipal government……(regarding critics like himself Steve added)…Allusions to famous past amateurs over-inflates the rather small accomplishments of present critics, including myself. A better perspective is the complete mediocrity of the Team makes their work vulnerable to examination by the merely competent.”

    Warmunists take themselves very seriously. We needn’t follow their example. Incompetent hacks is a kind way of putting it.

    • Davide says:

      I think the best description of these “experts” is the one made by Taleb, about “intellectual yet idiot”. If you read it, I’m sure you will love it.
      https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577
      McIntyre is right, but I think NOW this kind of people may have degrees in the most famous universities, and jobs in the main national and international organizations.

      • gregole says:

        Ha Ha! Very good. It used to be the blind leading the blind; but we’ve progressed to the deaf and blind leading the blind. What could possibly go wrong?

        • Davide says:

          Not easy question, but it’s not a new problem. It’s old.
          Taleb always talks about “soviet-Harvard” people, for example. I think we should use more this expression.
          But also in Harvard, of course, you can find good people.
          Nozick wrote this article 20 years ago, to try to explain why they are so biased: https://www.libertarianism.org/publications/essays/why-do-intellectuals-oppose-capitalism
          So we must start understanding this: “intellectuals”, universities, and so on (united nations and similar institutions, for example), are full of enemies of liberalism and free world. They are full of people that like social engineering, and “experts” telling people how to live (global warming is perfect for this). This is soviet union, but this is now every day more, in the former free world.
          People must understand that we have to do something, or it will go worse, year after year.
          Another really important thinker (Popper – most important than Nozick and of course than Taleb) wrote about the “paradox of intolerance”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance
          This is what happening: intolerant and overbearing people use freedom institutions to force their view on everyone.
          And they are destroying freedom in the society. I think in US (time ago much better, now worse under many aspect) more than in Europe.
          I don’t even know what word to use to talk about “liberalism”. Liberalism is about freedom and individual rights, is about limiting government power, is what “founding fathers” used to build the Usa, not what “liberals” think. They are socialist, and they stole also the word, changing its meaning to meet their ideology: this is Orwell’s newspeak.

  4. Bernal says:

    The estimable Steve McIntyre. Remember when he was He Who Shall Not Be Named by Gavin at…. what was the name of that web site? How soon we forget.

  5. Psalmon says:

    Trump’s failure on the Wall is a good indication of why this nonsense continues…Trump has made important decisions re: Paris and he tweets at time mocking Global Warming…but now we know President Jared calls the shots and the infrastructure that perpetuates this fraud will be protected and preserved by him. In that sense we must face facts that Trump is just a delay. No amount of evidence will stop this. It is policy not facts, narrative not reality. Jared is the Trump card for the globalists. They can’t lose. They won’t lose.

    • arn says:

      Trump god bailed out in the beginning of the 90ies by Willbur Ross who was at that time head of Rothschild Inc.

      I still wonder how Trump got out of Paris Climate BS and TPP

  6. Norilsk says:

    Adolf Erik, Baron Nordenskiöld achieved much in the Arctic, including passing through the Northeast Passage between 1878 to 1879. He reached Port Clarence, Alaska on July 22, 1879. Global warming isn’t the only kid on the block.

    https://www.britannica.com/biography/Adolf-Erik-Baron-Nordenskiold

  7. Brian D says:

    Extent in early Aug of 1751 N of Svalbard would have had the good Capt. quite intrigued. Very similar to 2012 and 2013 when the ice edge was really far north of Svalbard.

  8. Brian D says:

    Lots of data and pics for historical sea ice and other related stuff here. Enjoy!
    ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/

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