Italy Averages 23,000 Flu Deaths Per Year

Italy has had 3,400 COVID-19 deaths. They average nearly 23,000 flu deaths per year.

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) – ScienceDirect

Flu typically rises exponentially, and then drops off nearly as fast once everyone is exposed, or the behavior of the virus changes due to weather, etc.  This time, government will claim it was their draconian actions which caused it to fall.

Spanish flu – Wikipedia

That pattern is also what happened in South Korea and China with COVID-19.

South Korea Coronavirus: 8,652 Cases and 94 Deaths – Worldometer

South Korea has had less than 100 deaths. China has had about 4,000 deaths. How does that get extrapolated to a death rate of 3%, or millions of deaths in the US?

France has banned cycling.  This is about control, not public health.

Ohio unemployment claims soar after Gov. Mike DeWine closes businesses due to coronavirus – cleveland.com

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85 Responses to Italy Averages 23,000 Flu Deaths Per Year

  1. MrGrimNasty says:

    Apparently Sweden has taken the least ‘robust’ action, which is ‘interesting’……

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETiZMqCWoAEfJGl?format=jpg&name=900×900

    The death rate varies from negligible in Germany to several single figure % in the worst countries – probably biased by testing coverage and proportion of very elderly.

    • czechlist says:

      I don’t trust the EU any more than China, Russia or the sensational media whores -especially progressive PBS.
      I think I may reread The Andromeda Strain for amusement

  2. arn says:

    Seems people in France cycle only in groups and closer than 2 feet from each other.
    I guess that”s the reason :)

    Or may be it is just pre-programming people to get used to a police state.

    Regarding the death rate of the china virus:

    Just take a look at those quarantined cruising ships
    and find out how many % died and you have the worst scenario numbers
    as those ships have the “best” possible virus conditions.

    Many old people locked into a tiny place.And it is almost impossible to not be infected.
    And one can expect that in real life the death rate will be just a tiny fraction
    as people are on average some decades younger and it is less likely to catch
    the virus.

  3. tom0mason says:

    Currently the official state is …

    http://www.netanimations.net/Moving-animated-clip-art-dont-panic-picture.gif

    Tomorrow is the first National Headless Chickens’ Parade.

  4. Gummans Gubbe says:

    From the Netherlands: 50% of people in the ICU are under the age of 50 years. The people surviving has varying degree of reduced lung function. And it repeats.

    And I will not fight over a toilet paper with my local immigrants. My advice: Stay out of this! How many signs on boot hill reads “He were right until the end”.

  5. Tish Farrell says:

    The Swiss Propaganda Research Blog has a piece by a ‘Swiss doctor’ (unnamed) who provides an English translation of (plus link to the original source) the mortality analysis done by The Italian National Health Institute ISS:
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

    At the time of the report average age of positive-tested deceased 81 years;
    10% deaths 90 years and over; 90% of total deaths 70 years and over, and all had 1, 2 or 3 existing serious conditions. This also applied to the small number in the younger category. Also pointed out in the piece that some Covid-19 test kits are not necessarily able to determine between this or other more usual corona strains, nor when the above died if it was from Covid-19, their existing conditions, or some combination of both.

    • Alan Wheatstone says:

      thank you so much for this; well found! Very helpful: I will include the satellite smog photo for everyone: I think it clarifies why northern Italy has such problems; (not so much Tuscany or Sicily!!)

  6. Brad-DXT says:

    I believe the overreaction to the Wuhan flu is due to this being an election year.
    The Never Trumpers of all stripes have been trying for the past few years to find anything to bring President Trump down.
    This is the latest attempt to cast shade upon the effectiveness of President Trump and has resulted in the collapse of world productivity.

    One thing that we should take from this is that we have given too much of the means of production to a communist regime. I would hope that we start building factories in this country to offset this shortcoming.

  7. Bob says:

    Each Flu year a different brand name. Covid19. Like the Common-Cold and Cancer-Cure research booming industries, Flu brand is struggling to up its game. Old-stock MERS and SARS come at ten-a-penny now. Legacy Flu stocks are still junk. Invest in
    Common-Sense. It seldom fails.

  8. Mary says:

    This is off topic, but since the world is shut down, little driving, few planes, factories not producing non-essential stuff, wouldn’t we expect to see a drop in rising of CO2 levels starting soon if the increase is actually due to human activity and not a naturally occurring phenomena?

    I’m expecting to watch CO2 go on rising, even with the human contribution at such reduced levels because I think it is mostly coming from the oceans which were warmed during MWP 800 years ago just like Vostok Ice Core studies show.

    But I’d love to hear ya’lls thoughts.

  9. The other Brad says:

    If the leftist retake the senate and the White House they will declare a National Emergency over “Climate Change.” These draconian measures over the Wuhan Virus will be their precedent.

  10. Stewart Pid says:

    Tony shouldn’t the deaths per year be 17,000?
    Four flu season divided into the 68,000 deaths?

    Good find & thanks for all u do.

    • Alan Wheatstone says:

      I think Stewart it is looking over a winter: so maybe Oct 2013 to March 2014 so one year, and Oct 2016 to March 2017; a second winter … that is how CDC reports.

    • Pedandi says:

      The 68000 deaths over 4 years is increased total mortality above average that are attributable to the flu virus. Actual deaths from flu were 41000 for 2016-17 alone. It’s in the lead article.

  11. Robert Gipson says:

    “When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in the flag, carrying a cross.”
    – Sinclair Lewis

    “Sure we’ll have Fascism here, but it will come as an anti-Fascist movement.”
    – Huey P. Long

  12. Gail Combs says:

    Hi Tony,

    Thought I would leave this info on anti-virals.

    The FDA will allow Americans to use as ‘Off label’ last resort medication.

    Hydroxychloroquine is found to be more effective and potent than chloroquine in vitro treatment of coronavirus, new study published by NIH shows

    …new study by the United States National Institutes of Health (NIH) shows that the sister drug hydroxychloroquine is more potent in killing the virus off in vitro (in the test tube to not in the body). In a study titled: “In Vitro Antiviral Activity and Projection of Optimized Dosing Design of Hydroxychloroquine for the Treatment of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),” the result of the study shows that Hydroxychloroquine was found to be more potent than chloroquine to inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in vitro….

    Also:
    “A Dutch scientist of the University of Groningen created hydroxychloroquine in aerosol form and it will be available within weeks. It instantly reaches the lungs to directly block the negative effects of COVID-19, even better than HCQ in oral form.”

    In Dutch: https://www.rtvnoord.nl/nieuws/220259/RUG-onderzoekt-effect-malariamedicijn-op-corona

    • Disillusioned says:

      Well, hello stranger!

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        Howdy, Gail! Good to hear from you.

        I replied under Disillusioned to keep it close to your comment

    • Logic n Reason says:

      The problem with this virus is the strain it is putting on the healthcare systems in all countries. Everyone has been caught woefully unprepared. If you get it badly with the full fever etc but you are healthy with an uncompromised immune system then it will feel like a very severe flu. Unpleasant and painful but otherwise ok. But if you have underlying health issues ( especially in later life) then the consequences can be catastrophic. The form of pneumonia it is creating is awful. Apparently the mucus in the lungs starts to harden like concrete. Lung capacity is severely curtailed, oxygen to the blood is restricted. Many of the victims are dying of organ failure as sepsis takes hold. The footage coming out of an ICU unit in Italy is horrific. The doctors and nurses are exhausted and there are not enough respirators to cope with the sheer volume of patients being admitted. The UK even has the luxury motor manufacturer, McLaren, getting involved to produce respirators in double quick time. My sister lives in Switzerland and the Swiss are increasing concerned that their health care system will be overwhelmed and their healthcare infrastructure is excellent.
      Yes, in terms of previous flu pandemics, this virus does appear to be affecting less people but the severity of the outcomes from it in terms of rapid and frightening mortality rate ( frightening in the sense of the pain and suffering it potentially brings) should not taken lightly.

    • rah says:

      Great to see your still on looking at the right side of the grass Gail.

      A little update on the trucking situation. For the last month I’ve been teaming. The company was short on teams and I’ve been teaming with a guy who lost his partner until a new one is available.

      This week we did a run to Nogales, AZ then up to Tucson, then back to Anderson, IN. Last week we did two round trips from Anderson to San Antonio, TX and finished with a round trip to Laredo. We’ve put about 26,000 miles behind us in the last four weeks. Truck traffic is as heavy as ever.

      Finally I will be getting back into my own truck this week. Got in from Laredo at 16:30 Saturday. They’ve put a new communications system in my truck that replaces the Omnitracs Qualcom and I have to learn how to use it before I go out. Tuesday I depart with a refer load of Nestles product bound for Milton, PA. Sure am glad to be going solo again. Teaming is not the game for a 64 year old man.

      Because a huge part of the business of the company I run for is running parts and materials for the auto industry and all of the auto makers are shut down or shutting down, there are significant layoffs. I don’t have to worry though. We six salary drivers are now no longer on call! We’re running the board. However as long as we continue to do the runs and make the miles, we will continue to get our regular salary. No overtime pay from now until things start getting back to normal however. That’s ok by me since I have had 10 overtime days in the last six weeks.

      The company will pick up as much freight off the “spot market” as possible to keep as many drivers as they can working. So every Friday I will be calling in to get set up for the loads I will run the following week. They go down the seniority list and since I’m pretty high up there on that list I should get the pick of some pretty decent loads. No matter what though, the trucks have to roll!

      On Thursday last week while I was waiting for the load we were taking to Laredo to get ready I stopped by the office of the COO (Chief Operations Officer). Second man on the Carter totem pole. He’s a nice guy and every few months I stop by and shoot the bull with him. I hadn’t talked to him yet this year and he was in his office and had the time. He said that the company is well positioned to weather this storm but he’s sure a number of other competing companies that Carter frequently bids against are not. He expects great opportunities for Carter after this Kungflu thing is behind us. So it sounds like when things start getting back to normal and us salary drivers go back to being on call we are going to be a busy as ever.

      I have always kept at least five days of provisions in canned and prepackaged goods in the truck but for the last few years haven’t been using a cooler. Today I’m going shopping for a Coleman electric cooler and a 12 volt microwave for my truck. My intent is to make it so I am as self sufficient as possible while on the road in order to minimize trips into truck stops and contact with other people. So I’m going to stock that cooler up to supplement the canned and prepackaged foods I already keep in the truck and there by cut the visits down to buy food or drinks to a minimum. I can fuel at the pumps without going in. I can also scale without going in by using the CAT scale phone app. Thus I will only need to go in to use the bathroom facilities.

      I have plenty of hand sanitizer and gloves and having been an SF medic trained in aseptic technique, I understand the precautions I must take.

    • Gator says:

      So glad to see your post Gail! It’s been a long time, and I had often wondered what had become of you.

      All the best!

      PS – I received my “papers” yesterday, from my employer, that allow me to travel as I am now considered an “essential” part of the economy.

  13. MyCoal says:

    Seasonal influenza peaks around February where this year there were a little over 90,000 reported cases in the US and ~170,000 cases worldwide
    http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=1
    https://www.who.int/influenza/gisrs_laboratory/updates/flunet_globalviruscirculation_20200313.pdf?ua=1
    Here in Canada, our brilliant PM has announced a vague return to normal (where I guess we should no longer care about the regular flu like usual) from weeks to months based on what “experts” are saying. He’s in “self isolation”(what other type of isolation is there exactly?) so even in virtual mode he’s completely useless.

  14. Alan Hughes says:

    thanks for all this Tony; well done to put this all together so quickly and so well; rather sad that Public Health departments cannot do the same!!

    I particularly enjoyed the Simpsons video: well found! I will circulate it; I can only hope more young people will have more “corona parties”: this provides a small glimmer of hope;

  15. Steven Parker says:

    When we calculate the total economic cost of the shutdown then divide that by the worst-case scenario death projections, the numbers will be mind-boggling. Well into 7 digits per avoided death. How much is a human life worth? We are about to find out.

  16. Gary Seymour says:

    So, republican senators dumped millions in stock when they found out that the coronaviris would tank the economy. And you people here still think that democrats are repulsive. Where is your moral high ground? Is it that the democrats created this virus for political gain? Or that repugnants can sell their holdings without consequence? Why sell stocks when Trump reassured us that it is fine? Are republicans two-faced?

    • Gator says:

      And you told us that you weren’t political. Well I guess that was just another lie (MO of the left). LOL

      California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat, also reported that her husband sold off between $100,000 and $500,000 worth of stock in Allogene Therapeutics on Jan. 31.

      Hmmmm… I wonder if Gary bitched about this?

      Or this?

      Ethics: As Democrats demonize Wall Street CEOs as the “greedy” fiends of the financial crisis, they’ve lined their own pockets — both before and after the crisis. Nancy Pelosi’s just the latest example.

      The former House speaker allegedly gamed financial reforms to boost her personal stock portfolio. The brewing scandal is complicated, but here’s the Reader’s Digest version:

      After a Pelosi staffer left to lobby on behalf of credit-card giant Visa, Pelosi delayed bringing to the House floor a bill to end lucrative “swipe fees” for Visa and other credit providers.

      The bill couldn’t have come at a worse time for Visa. It planned to launch an $18 billion public stock offering, so stalling Hill action became a priority. The San Francisco-based company curried favor with Pelosi by pumping cash into her re-election efforts, earning its CEO a rare one-on-one meeting with the speaker.

      At the same time, Visa offered her husband a VIP cut of the IPO. Paul Pelosi jumped at the offer, buying 5,000 shares at the $44 initial price. In a couple of days, the shares soared to $64. Pelosi later bought 15,000 more, raising the total value of his investment to about $5 million. In the end, the legislation Visa fought starting in 2007 was forestalled two full years.

      Publicly, Nancy Pelosi has been a frequent critic of the financial industry. The commission she impaneled in 2009 to investigate the root causes of the crisis summarily indicted Wall Street honchos, while exonerating guilty Democrats, including several who had their hands in the subprime pot.

      https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/pelosi-corzine-visa-scandal/

      Please Gary, the-nonpolitical-troll, show us where you castigated Dems for their graft.

      Frauds of a blether, lie together.

      • Colorado Wellington says:

        You got it all wrong, gator.

        Gary Seymour, Michael Bloomberg, George Soros, Tom Steyer, CNN and Antifa are not political. They just want what is best for us.

        Anyway, you can’t stop progress. The future is climate-controlled and organic.

    • An Inquirer says:

      Both Democrats and Republicans dumped stocks. The only response that I have read (and I have not searched for more responses) came from a Georgia senator who said that she does not make investment decisions. Such decisions on buying and selling are made by her financial manager.

    • Mark Luhman says:

      When did Senator Feinstien become a Republican. You can bet people in both parties did it don’t confuse party affiliation as meaning anything the reality is the “elites” stick together to screw us deplorables ever time.

    • Scissor says:

      There were democrats too, but no matter, call them dirty politicians no matter which party they represent.

  17. World in Data says:

    Meanwhile, 2.5 million people die from pneumonia every year, that’s an average of over 6849 people per day!
    https://ourworldindata.org/pneumonia

  18. ducdorleans says:

    “influenza in Italy” .. Nice find again, Tony ! .. thanks ..

    At least we have something to compare to now ..

  19. scott allen says:

    Since the Wuhan Flu struck China in January they have basically shut down factories, power plants and most vehicles. China is the leader in CO2 production and almost doubles the world. The US and most western countries have shut down most air travel and vehicular traffic by about 50-70 percent.
    Yet I look at the CO2 readings of Mauna Loa the CO2 levels have remained the same or gone up. If mankind was responsible for the increase in CO2 wouldn’t this show up at Mauna Loa
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

  20. Chris says:

    Cancer researchers will claim that they have achieved great results in curing cancer, because everyone died of something else!

  21. GCSquared says:

    “South Korea has had less than 100 deaths. China has had about 4,000 deaths. How does that get extrapolated to a death rate of 3%, or millions of deaths in the US?”

    Possibly because measures taken in the US, and most other countries, aren’t as exceptionally thorough as in those 2.

    Both China and South Korea have very aggressive testing programs, and are already using chloroquinone and hydrochloroquinone treatments which until recently have been dismissed by everyone else (search Didier Raoult for data). If we did likewise, we might not have a problem either.

    Both South Korea and China’s death numbers are anomalously low compared to the rest of the world. Their reported infection rates are much flatter and slower that the much faster exponential rise seen everywhere else, and in the US in particular.

    Estimates for the US are based on the current US COVID-19 infection growth rate that adds a digit (x10) to the infected population every 2 weeks. We do see this rate of growth in the hot spots in the coastal states. IF this persists (a big if) for another 2 months, the infection rate will go up to 10 million from the current thousand or so, and to 100 million 2 weeks later. At this point, even a small percentage death count will go into the millions. So WITH THE CURRENT RATE OF INCREASE, even small mortality rates will mean many dead, and perhaps more significantly, the medical treatments that keep these number down will become overloaded. That’s the script for the horror movie.

    In addition, China’s COVID numbers are so low many regard them as bogus. Lying may be another technique for keeping China’s reported death rate down, just like the difference between reported and measured temperatures in climate. After all, if only ~80,000 are infected and the economy is 2/3 to 3/4 recovered, why don’t satellite photos show the infamous air pollution once again?

    I do tend to FEEL that something fishy is going on in the west’s economic and business arena, and that quarantines and business shutdowns are overreaction. But so far at least, I haven’t been able to put my finger on the sort of hard evidence of chicanery in the COVID science, like the kind Tony shows in the climate arena.

    • Jacqulin Klauss says:

      Here is a piece you might be interested in looking at

      The HighWire with Del Bigtree
      TRUMP VS FAUCI: BATTLE OF AGENDAS

  22. Patrick says:

    7,500 U.S. citizens die every day. Globally it’s 150,000 a day. This virus just added 0.1% to the GLOBAL daily death total (1,600 deaths on 3/20/2020)? How many were seniors who were already in bad health? Time to start paying attention to the fact that our scientists are running the show, and they already know how difficult it is to control any virus from their own experiences over the last 75 years. Trump is now caught up in the BIG GOVERNMENT scientific bureaucracy, but I’m sure he will put those scientists on the spot in order to expose their bias. This will be very costly in many ways.

  23. Colleen says:

    This is not the flu.

    (1) It is more virulent.
    (2) It kills a higher % of people. Even at 1%, 10x more deaths than flu.
    (3) Whether or not 1&2 are correct, nowhere is there hospital capacity for a fullscale outbreak which will require many long term hospitalizations, much more than flu, regardless of deaths.

    The only reason China & South Korea cases receded is due to quarantine. Look at reports from doctors on the ground in Bergamo, Italy, Wuhan, NYC. The doctors themselves are dying. Does that occur during a normal flu outbreak?

    I’m here b/c I like the climate information provided by this site, makes more sense than anything else I see, and while I agree there are problems with the infringement of liberties, big government, etc. re COVID, I think the analysis on the severity of the COVID problem disregards the facts. If the analysis is so off-track on COVID, is it accurate on climate science?

    Italy may see 68,000 deaths from COVID in April if the lockdown does not work, and certainly it does not have the medical care capacity for this surge, neither does the US.

    PLEASE GET REAL IN ANY FUTURE ANALYSIS.

    PS — Are the Germans testing more, so there numbers reflect many mild cases where Italian numbers do not? They have same median age, why so few deaths in Germany.

    • rah says:

      I guess in your book the “Spanish Flu” of 1918 was not the flu either. It wiped out over 4% of the global population in 2 1/2 years. It attacked otherwise healthy young adults more than any other segment of the population.

      If people would learn a bit of history they wouldn’t fall for the BS that some are putting out. Or perhaps look of the definition of “influenza” in a medical dictionary? Expand your horizons and actually learn from base sources instead of just parroting the BS the news is pumping out and then pumping that crap out as fact.

      • Colleen says:

        I should have been more specific. Not the annual flu or even a bad recent year, not like any flu we have seen since 1918. So, not like the flu Drs today treat all the time. One case COVID sucks up a lot more resources.

    • Disillusioned says:

      “PLEASE GET REAL IN ANY FUTURE ANALYSIS.”

      Scream much?

      • Colleen says:

        Not too often in text. :) But an article I read today from an Israeli Dr. treating in Italy, no respiratory resources for patients over 60 where he is. That just doesn’t happen for seasonal flu in the US or Europe in “normal” circumstances. So this time, yes.

    • Patrick says:

      1600 deaths on 3/20/2020. That’s a 0.1% global increase and that isn’t subtracting those who were in ill health when the acquired the disease. That # is hard to establish. The average death toll on Earth is 150,000 a day. Baby-Boomers are in their senior stage of life, so the increase of deaths is bound to go up anyways. A 0.1% increase is well within normal variability.

      Wouldn’t it be nice if we could control the amount of deaths on this planet?

    • Annette says:

      This German pulmonologist begs to differ, Colleen…
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_AyuhbnPOI&feature=youtu.be

      re: the PS — because Germans have cleaner air and smoke less, and they haven’t destroyed their national health service like Italy (and the UK) has.
      Details here: https://www.ukcolumn.org/

    • Annette says:

      Here’s another one for you, Colleen. There’s not been a better excuse for a massive power grab by the Powers That Shouldn’t Be. The plan has been in the works for many years, brought to you by the same fine folks who’ve delivered the climate scam, for related reasons.
      https://www.corbettreport.com/mml2020/

    • GCSquared says:

      “The only reason China & South Korea cases receded is due to quarantine. ”
      Well, they also adopted hydoxy- and chloroquinone treatment, now being used quietly by doctors in NYC. Normally used to kill the malaria parasite, these drugs also open the cell walls to zinc ions, which suppress the rogue protein replication that COVID exploits. The use of these quinchona alkaloids in Africa, to treat malaria, may explain why African COVID numbers are strangely low. See MedCram for technical explanations, and Bill Still who follows and discusses the politics. There are a lot of cautionary excuses of dangerous side effects, but these are both managable and well-known after over half a century of use.

      Mostly, I’ve been guided by Peak Prosperity, who largely paints the same concerned picture you present here. I tend to trust Chris Martensen’s sincerity, at least, and in fact I started prepping in a small way more than 6 weeks ago. But since the efficacy of the quinchona alkaloids has been demonstrated, first apocryphally, now conclusively, and with surprisingly little implementation, my paranoia is beginning to detect a LIHOP-type slant in the narrative.

      Here’s an analytical article in zerohedge, a repost of a since-banned one in Medium, which takes a more recent look at earlier conclusions regarding COVID contagion and virulence. I suggest you have a look soon, while you still can:
      https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

      • Colleen says:

        My understanding is that these drugs are used very little in the US and we are basically out. Do we manufacture this drug? I think it’s generic so that probably means no. My understanding is that India (a big generic manufacturer) has stopped the export of over 100 generics because it thinks it may need the meds for its own population (have no idea if these on the list). I agree, and have seen MedCram and others on the topics, but I do not believe there is wide spread availability now as cases start surging.

      • Phil. says:

        Well, they also adopted hydoxy- and chloroquinone treatment, now being used quietly by doctors in NYC. Normally used to kill the malaria parasite, these drugs also open the cell walls to zinc ions, which suppress the rogue protein replication that COVID exploits. The use of these quinchona alkaloids in Africa, to treat malaria, may explain why African COVID numbers are strangely low.

        It’s my understanding that these drugs are no longer used in the malaria endemic regions of africa because of the development of resistance becoming dominant there.

  24. Alan Wheatstone says:

    thanks Tony;

    I am taking 2013/2014 to mean Oct 2013 to March 2014: that correspond to CDC data, so 2016/2017 is Oct 2016 to March 2017 (winter in Europe) so 2 winters of data

    If you were running a quiz and you asked folks to complete the sequence, you would say

    2013/2014
    2016/2017
    ……………..

    and the first correct answer is from that bright kid in the front row ……. yes, indeed son it is ..

    2019/2020

    well there you are

  25. Eric Hatfield says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n4no04822NQ

    This was an eye-opening video about how the coronavirus compares to the other epidemics and outbreaks in this century. It’s hard to compare an ongoing event (like this one) with an event that’s already complete (like the Swine Flu) in overall severity. We can compare how they were doing at comparable times in the outbreak. This video does that. (The information they used is in a spreadsheet on the link. Within that are links to where they got their data from.)

    In short while the Cholera Outbreak in Hispaniola started fast, this one overtook it within the last couple weeks. The Swine Flu outbreak only overtakes this one beyond this one’s history (about a month or so). So we don’t know how this one will compare in the future. The last 10-15 days are not comforting.

    This one has the potential to be very serious as it also has the potential to peak early and wane quickly (like apparently in China if you can believe their numbers and in South Korea). I keep hoping the death count in Italy significantly drops. I saw in the news Italy lost nearly 800 people today. That’s nearly half of the death toll in an average day there (had to do some research to find Italy’s and US’s average death rates).

    Now we’re looking at about 80 deaths today in the US which is about 1% of a typical day. That won’t be a problem if it peaks there. If we get to say 3-4,000 per day, we’d be up there with Italy in deaths compared to the average number of deaths. Yes I think that would seriously stress our medical system.

    Yes the vast majority of the deaths are people with underlying medical conditions that compromise their health. Well duh! Of course a virus will normally be harder on people with serious health issues than those without. They still count particularly in an aging population.

    I don’t have any keen insights as to what we should do. I agree with Tony that I don’t like the dangerous precedents being set in the country. This is not Ebola, but this looks more serious than the Swine Flu. I’m hoping all those ideas to treat those with the disease pan out and we can get this under control very pronto.

  26. Joseph Dooley says:

    Four flu seasons = 17k deaths per season. Mortality 17k/5.3M = .3%

    Italy coronavirus has killed 4,800 people out 53k infected. Mortality rate of 9%

    30 times deadlier than the flu.

    • rah says:

      It’s still the flu. The “Spanish flu” pandemic killed between 17 and 100 million people. It is considered the most deadly pandemic in history. Percentage of mortality estimates even in these times a not really accurate simply because of the lack of testing and the variance of test quality and recording but best estimate of mortality of the Spanish Flu is at the very minimum 2.5%.

      Mortality has nothing to do with defining if a viral infection is influenza or not. By any definition in any cyclopedic medical dictionary I have, which includes Taber’s and Steadman’s or any online medical dictionary I have found COVID 19 IS influenza and thus is a flu.

      • GCSquared says:

        Another reason why it’s hard to draw clear conclusions about Spanish Flu morbidity is that “…a significant portion of the deaths may be attributable to aspirin.” It was the only available drug, and doses were 8-32 GRAMS. Start at the 11:10 mark of MedCram #40:
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT6mHi_8V5E

        Unlike the quinine alkaloids in today’s case, medical personnel in 1918 were assessing toxicity simultaneously with treatment, essentially upping aspirin dosages until something bad happened. Needless to say, it was a target easy to overshoot.

      • SERPENTBANE says:

        When people talk about and compare with the flu, they talk about the common flu. Most people knows this, and nobody needs to play smart asses…

    • SteveT says:

      So are people dying OF C19, or do they die WITH it?

    • TJ says:

      “Italy coronavirus has killed 4,800 people” this really is not true. 4,800 people have died with the Corona virus.

      Have been looking at the weekly death figures of the U.K., ok we have a slightly younger population but a slightly larger population.

      This data is per week for the week ending around March 17th…
      Year / Deaths from respiratory diseases / Deaths of over 75 year olds
      2017 / 1,561 / 7,375
      2018 / 2,271 / 9,090
      2019 / 1,559 / 7,074

      So in a few years time, how are you going to find the number of deaths due to the Corona virus from the 2020 data set?

  27. rah says:

    I should have been clearer in the posts above. COVID 19 is not an influenza virus. In the microbiological classification COVID 19 is much closer to the viruses that cause the common cold than to the classification of viruses that cause influenza. However as a practical matter the transmission, signs & symptoms, pathology, and supportive care are identical. Thus for the care giver the biological differences between the two is a distinction without a difference. The aspect where the microbiology will make a practical difference is in the discovery or development of agents that can cure the disease. It sure is looking like a combination of Chloroquine and Remdesivir is very promising not only for this particular corona virus but for other SARS.

    As I stated above, neither the incidence or mortality rate or how contagious a virus is has anything to do with it’s classification.

  28. Andre Rohde Garder says:

    Why this Nobel laureate predicts a quicker coronavirus recovery: ‘We’re going to be fine’

    By Joe MozingoStaff Writer
    March 22, 20202:03 PM
    Michael Levitt, a Nobel laureate and Stanford biophysicist, began analyzing the number of COVID-19 cases worldwide in January and correctly calculated that China would get through the worst of its coronavirus outbreak long before many health experts had predicted.

    https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate

  29. David Scott says:

    yea, but…the flus have a much lower contagious rate and can not be obtained via animals also unlike the covid-19. The contagious rate is almost the same as the common cold. A new cold virus will infect almost everyone in a 2 year period. Since the Covid-19 had a 3.4% death rate, and if everyone in the US gets it, we will lose over 10,000,000 people, not just 25,000 to 35,000 like we do per year.

    There are reasons to treat this more seriously…it is as contagious as a cold nut as deadly as the flu. Not a good combo! We need a vaccine before we allow this to spread!

    Am I wrong? Please correct me if I am

    • Eric Hatfield says:

      In fairness what you’re seeing is the death rate of confirmed cases, not the death rate of people who are infected. So it’s dangeroous to extrapolate that to the whole US.

      Due to the general lack of testing supplies most people who are tested are those that are sick enough to be tested. There are others like celebrities, politicians and health care workers who were tested, but had no symptoms. You hear about people with no symptoms, yet tested positive. The reality is we don’t know what the overall death rate is when you factor in all of those people who actually have it, but show no or such mild symptoms they don’t tested.

      What we do know are the existing numbers and the overall world wide death for people tested remains about 4%. It’s a bit over 1% here in the US. Nearly 2k people died of it in the world today (23 Mar) so that’s still going up. About 160 died here in the US and that’s about 2% of an average daily death toll. Fortunately that’s well below what Italy’s suffered. It appears they peaked on Saturday, but the numbers are still high.

  30. Andre Rohde Garder says:

    A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

  31. sandy mcclintock says:

    I hope you are right but …
    Here is the point of view of a doctor in an ICU in the UK that is at the end of his tether after a mere three weeks.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=738&v=tQD4B_hmdvo&feature=emb_logo

  32. Greg says:

    Italy had 68,000 Flu deaths in 2018

    Now its Zero?

    LOOLOLO

  33. PoeticAllowance says:

    Your title is wrong. It’s not 23 000 per year. Data is for 4 years and correct calculation is 68000/4= 17 000.

    • Phil. says:

      Correct, and as of today in Italy there have been 10,000 deaths due to COVID-19 in one month, so in another week it will probably reach 20,000, in other words more than an average flu season in one quarter the time. Not only that hospitalization for COVID-19 requires about three times the time on a ventilator than a corresponding case of flu. That’s why the hospital systems are becoming overwhelmed.

  34. G says:

    Perhaps old news for some (?), but something that’s been labelled FAKE NEWS (by (blatantly transparent) association) by the mainstream here in SA – end even then, that was only on a “back-page”, in some small-print of a news website.

    It doesn’t claim to be correct, just advises perhaps avoiding the questionable medication –
    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30116-8/fulltext

    The WHO figures for (global) comorbidities, as well as those in Italy appear to add some weight to the findings in this report.

  35. Thomas says:

    Thank you for this article. See the news from MarketWatch where they tested everyone at a homeless shelter and nearly half had COVID-19 but without symptoms. There are two fallacies going on first more people than claimed have covid. This dramatically lowers death rates. Second, they are counting the flu, pneumonia, and heart attacks as covid deaths. This article goes into more detail: https://medium.com/@Libertasia/how-covid-19-has-been-used-as-terror-11aa58045394

  36. TeknoBilir says:

    Backlink indexletme – anti seo servisi – TeknoBilir.com

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