New Video : Scary Halloween

https://newtube.app/user/TonyHeller/IWo1Cos

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6 Responses to New Video : Scary Halloween

  1. mike wiebel says:

    I have a question about the Halloween video — you state the test has a 90 pct false positive rate and I’d like to know where or how you got that number. I saw a number of youtube comments asking for this as well. Might make a great video. Please keep up the great work.

  2. Jeff Olson says:

    Tony, your sign is awesome. Did you design that?
    I can’t read one line, but I would love to plant this in my yard

  3. Bruce says:

    Thank you for all you do.
    Regarding the Globull Warming, Rick Steves has some new travels in Europe on PBS. He is in the Alps and other mountain ranges in the area. The last two shows he has to mention how Globull Warming is shrinking glaciers in one area and ruining the permafrost in another. Taking trams up and down mountains is okay though. Riding an e-bike is okay though. Putting the bulk of your luggage in a van that will take it to the next stop on your hike so that you can “hike” along a well worn trail unencumbered by all the stuff you brought along is okay though….It’s GREEN!
    No mention of how he was able to walk to Europe though

  4. SomeBlokeFromCambridge says:

    Tony,

    I think you mis-stated the false positives. It’s not that the false positive *rate* is 90%, it’s that 90% of the “positives” are false*.

    It works like this:

    The false positive rate of PCR tests as implemented (high cycle numbers) seems to be somewhere about 1%.
    Say that the actual prevalence of the virus in the population is 0.1%. Out of every 100,000 people tested, 10 will have the virus.
    If you now test 100,000 people and the test picks up all the people with the virus, we will see 10 people with (true) positive results.
    But, with a 1% false positive rate we will also see 1% of the 100,000 give positive test results, that’s 100 false “positives”.
    So, we have 10 true positives and 100 false positives, 110 in total, of which the false positives are 100/110 = about 90%

    *Obviously, the percentage of positive tests that are false will vary both with the actual false positive rate and with the prevalence of the virus in the population.

    But, being an engineer, and good at sums, you knew this already ;-)

    (moral: don’t abbreviate explanation)

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