1186 – “A Year Without A Winter”

8 Responses to 1186 – “A Year Without A Winter”

1. Robert B says:

   June 26, 2022 at 9:08 pm

   They’re going to have to burn that book.

   Reply
2. Ulric Lyons says:

   June 27, 2022 at 1:15 am

   1182-83 were very warm when Saturn was opposite Neptune, with Jupiter roughly in quadrature, like in 1361/1540-41/1757/1936/2006, it’s 179 years before 1361 which is 179 years before 1540. By 1184-85 Jupiter is opposite Neptune and there was a severe winter, but in 1185-86 winter, the only potential cold period ordered by Earth and Venus positions was in February and that got overridden by a close stellium of Mercury-Venus-Ceres towards Saturn giving a very warm signal.

   http://www.breadandbutterscience.com/Weather.pdf

   https://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar

   Reply
   • Robert L Gipson says:

     June 28, 2022 at 12:04 am

     Interesting, Ulric. Thanks.

     Reply
     • Ulric Lyons says:

       June 28, 2022 at 11:14 pm

       Thanks Robert, study my correlations:

       https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQemMt_PNwwBKNOS7GSP7gbWDmcDBJ80UJzkqDIQ75_Sctjn89VoM5MIYHQWHkpn88cMQXkKjXznM-u/pub

       Reply
3. Stuart Hamish says:

   June 27, 2022 at 2:22 am

   Paleo-climatic studies revealed a 39 consecutive year drought across eastern Australia from 1174 – 1212 CE while an estimated 70% of the 1100’s was abnormally dry over the eastern part of the Australian continent. Nothing like this phenomenal dryness has been experienced since European settlement . The aridity and intense heat of the 12th century had nothing to do with planetary conjunctions . An increase in solar radiance was primarily responsible ..The Medieval Warm Period , at least concerning the 12th century CE , was global

   Reply
   • Ulric Lyons says:

     June 27, 2022 at 1:52 pm

     Variability of solar radiance is ‘primarily’ responsible for nothing as it does not vary enough. Atmospheric teleconnections, ocean phases, and changes in cloud cover, all respond to changes in the solar wind strength. Planets order the changes in solar wind strength at down to daily-weekly scales. Sunspot cycles, centennial solar minima, and grand solar minima series on average every 863 years, are produced entirely by geometric configurations and cycles of primarily four planets. That sunspot cycle maxima are ordered by heliocentric geometric configurations within elliptical orbit paths, defines exactly why intervals between centennial minima vary so widely.

     Australian drought is driven by ocean phases and changes in cloud cover/precipitation, changes in solar irradiance are largely irrelevant.

     Reply
4. Donald Jassowski says:

   June 27, 2022 at 7:55 pm

   Ulric: see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7575229/
   for information on solar variance–it does not take much solar output change to change the Earth’s temperature.

   Reply
   • Ulric Lyons says:

     June 28, 2022 at 3:15 pm

     Much larger changes in shortwave forcing of Earth’s surface are due to changes in cloud cover, particularly low cloud cover.
     That 400 year model by Zharkova is useless, it cannot hindcast or predict grand solar minima as the period is wildly wrong, and she does not understand that lower indirect solar forcing means warmer ocean phases, which drive a decline in low cloud cover. Global cooling through the 2030-2050’s will be due to stronger solar wind conditions driving a colder AMO, via positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions. Which is what happened during the 1965-1995 cold AMO phase.

     Reply