“150 MPH Winds”

Michael Mann says he is not only a Nobel Prize winner but also an expert on hurricanes.

Hurricane Ian is no anomaly. The climate crisis is making storms more powerful | Michael E Mann and Susan Joy Hassol | The Guardian

“Category 4 : “Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.”

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

See Hurricane Ian’s damage across Florida in photos, videos and maps – The Washington Post

Hurricane Andrew 1992

Global accumulated cyclone energy is running at historical lows.

 

Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue

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4 Responses to “150 MPH Winds”

  1. Gamecock says:

    Water temperature in the North Atlantic Basin in summer and early fall is NOT a limiting factor on hurricanes. ‘The oceans and air are warmer’ is ignorant*. Even if true, it simply doesn’t matter. The oceans (sic) are ALWAYS WARM ENOUGH**. Hurricanes are 100% weather. I tracked the tropical wave that became Ian for days from the Atlantic into the Caribbean. I thought then, that if it became a hurricane, climate nonscientists would attribute it to climate change, and how absurd that would be.

    *He provides no evidence that the oceans are warmer – a begging the question fallacy. Climate nonscientists assert that the global mean temperature is 1.2C higher than it was 150 years ago. A generality. That does NOT equate to the NAB being 1.2C higher, a specificity. And 1.2C is well within the range of variability of NAB seasonal temperatures.

    **The allegedly ‘warmer oceans’ have been there for months, yet we didn’t have hurricanes spontaneously erupt. He’s trying to get us to believe that ‘warmer oceans’ cause more stronger, wetter hurricanes, yet Ian is the first damn landfalling hurricane in the 2022 season, and it came WAY PAST the historical peak of 10 September. He alleges ‘warmer oceans’ in a season of VERY LOW ACTIVITY. Were he correct, it would be direct proof that ‘warmer oceans’ is NOT a factor. Not only are Mann’s facts wrong, his logic is stupid.

  2. rah says:

    Ian is primarily a tidal surge and flooding event. The ground was saturated and the aquifers full before the storm hit.

    Large hurricanes cause more severe surge because of a longer period of the wind driving the water towards shore. Then add to that the slow 10 mph progression of the storm and you see what you get.

    Good news for my family. My girls in Daytona Beach have already had their power restored. The water entered the garage but they had the important stuff up on blocks. Even as I write this only a couple blocks away out on the main road the water is still two feet deep.

    The family vacation home is very near the end of a channel off Charlotte Harbor near Port Charlotte. When I saw drone footage of the flooding at Port Charlotte I expected the worse.

    But since then a neighbor down there has checked the place out. No apparent damage to the roof or outside of the house except the pool cage was demolished with part of it in the pool and part of it on the roof of the house. The water did not top the wall of the channel.

    The house across the street had their front picture window blown in and damage to their garage. Two houses down from them the people lost a considerable portion of their house.

    Not bad considering the eye of Ian passed very close to them, thankfully just to the south instead of to the north.

  3. rah says:

    BTW though Ian was definitely a Major hurricane I am always skeptical of the sustained windspeed that the NHC gives for these storms.

    I tracked Irma in 2017 watching in real time all the Buoy and land station data available on the storms track. Even before it made landfall near Naples it was obvious it was a middle of the road CAT II and not the CAT III they had it at according to what I saw the top sustained windspeed was 101 mph 1/2 hour before it reached shore and that was higher than any land station I saw afterwards.

    So it seems to this layman that what ever methods or formulas they use to calculate or determine windspeed from the data hurricane hunter aircraft yields tend to inflate the top sustained wind speed.

    This time quite a number of land stations failed before they even got to the worst of it. 126 mph was the highest sustained observed that I have seen. But that was not in the eye wall. I suspect Ian was a severe CAT III or low end CAT IV.

    I do know this. Two different hurricane hunter crew men declared that Ian was the roughest storm they had ever flown through. One from a C-130 that went in the day before land fall and one from a P-3 that went in that night. The guy on the P-3 also said that the lightning was the worst he had seen. Said the eye was lighted up like daylight.

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