No One Noticed At The Time

In 1990 IPCC report they were unable to detect an acceleration in sea level rise during the 20th century, but by 2016 it have been inflated to the fastest rise in almost three thousand years.

“20th century (sea level) rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries”

20th century rise was extremely likely faster than during any of the 27 previous centuries

“from examinations of both composite regional and global curves and individual tide gauge records, there is no convincing evidence of an acceleration in global sea level rise during the twentieth century “


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6 Responses to No One Noticed At The Time

  1. Crispin Pemberton-Pigott says:

    Let me get this straight:

    “Semi-empirical 21st century projections largely reconcile differences between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections and semi-empirical models.”

    I assume “semi-empirical” means projections based on past observations plus some fudge factors the deviate the observations in some direction.

    This statement says the model used to alter the observations-based-projections “largely” reconcile the differences between that result and the self-same model. Correct? It is a self-licking ice cream cone.

  2. DD More says:

    have they corrected for the 18.6-yearly Luna Nodal cycle?

    The Dutch (those guys responsible for dikes and keeping half of their country dry) seems to have found it.

    Local Relative Sea Level
    To determine the relevance of the nodal cycle at the Dutch coast, a spectral analysis was carried out on the yearly means of six main tidal gauges for the period 1890–2008. The data were corrected for atmospheric pressure variation using an inverse barometer correction. The spectral density shows a clear peak at the 18.6 -year period (Figure 1). The multiple linear regression yields a sea-level rise (b1) of 0.19 +/- 0.015 cm y-1 (95%), an amplitude (A) of 1.2 +/- 0.92 cm, and a phase (w) of -1.16 (with 1970 as 0), resulting in a peak in February 2005 (Figure 2). No significant acceleration (inclusion of b2) was found.

    Coastal management requires estimates of the rate of sealevel rise. The trends found locally for the Dutch coast are the same as have been found in the past 50 years (Deltacommissie, 1960; Dillingh et al., 1993). Even though including the nodal cycle made it more likely that the high-level scenarios would become apparent in the observations, no acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise was found. The higher, recent rise (van den Hurk et al., 2007) coincides with the up phase of the nodal cycle. For the period 2005 through 2011, the Dutch mean sea-level is expected to drop because the lunar cycle is in the down phase. This shows the importance of including the 18.6-year cycle in regional sea-level estimates. Not doing so on a regional or local scale for decadal length projections leads to inaccuracies.

  3. Ed says:

    Extremely likely?! What the hell does that even mean?

    • DD More says:

      Not sure on Extremely likely. Isn’t on the IPCC table.

      Table 1. Likelihood Scale

      Term*———————Likelihood of the Outcome

      Virtually certain—99-100% probability
      Very likely———90-100% probability
      Likely————–66-100% probability
      About as————33 to 66% probability
      likely as not
      Unlikely————0-33% probability
      Very unlikely——-0-10% probability
      Exceptionally unlikely–0-1% probability

      Likely must be between 66% & 90%

  4. Disillusioned says:

    That claim is in-your-face anti-scientific nonsense. Those authors are well aware of the stampeding sea level rise during the first 2/3 of the Holocene, which slowed very quickly about 8,000 years ago and over the last several centuries has been barely at a crawl.

  5. conrad ziefle says:

    If anyone would know, it would be the Dutch, and for the last 20 years of travelling over there I have never heard anyone sounding an alarm.

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