Not!
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/
Dec. 21, 2006: Evidence is mounting: the next solar cycle is going to be a big one.
Solar cycle 24, due to peak in 2010 or 2011 “looks like its going to be one of the most intense cycles since record-keeping began almost 400 years ago,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center. He and colleague Robert Wilson presented this conclusion last week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco.
Are you sure they’re not just counting solar freckles? It’s been pretty quiet up there.
Just do inverse, we should be heading into Maunder Minimum again because they just looked at the graph upside down as usual.
BTW why do we even bother studying the sun, I mean it supposedly always does the same thing the output of the sun never changes it’s a big ball of static gas, surely they could direct more money from the solar program to studying CO2 since there really is only one single variable that controls the climate. CO2 can make it rain, snow, hurricane oh yes and warm (sometimes like in summer).
the output of the sun never changes
there really is only one single variable that controls the climate
If you can refute the science, refute the science, not straw men. Nobody says either of these things.
Oh, that’s old news. They’ve already long since toned down that guesstimate (from 2006) to the latest one of something like 90. Personally, I think that that’s still nearly double the peak which’ll probably be reached by December 2012 (around 50-55). That’s pretty good considering that it’s taken nearly two years since the minimum was reached; the latest value from September 2010, is 25. So that gives it another two years to reach my own guesstimated peak of 50-55. Of course by then they’ll probably discover invisible sunspots and it’ll be back to the drawing board to try to figure out what’s really happening.
Russians predict: “Coldest winter in 1000 years?”
http://rt.com/prime-time/2010-10-04/coldest-winter-emergency-measures.html
Could be caused by Climate Change!
I’ve kept track of the shifting cycle 24 forecasts from NASA. It appears it is still a ‘robust’ forecast provided the original solar forecast has error bars of +/- 120.
The first date is when the forecast was made.
01/2004- minimum 1/07, 160 peak
01/2005- minimum 1/07, 145 peak in 2010
01/2006- minimum 1/07, 145 peak in 2010
01/2007- minimum 6/07, 160 peak in 2010
03/2008- minimum 6/08, 130 peak in 2011.5
01/2009- minimum 1/09, 105 peak in 2012
04/2009- minimum 4/09, 104 peak in 2013
05/2009- minimum 5/09, 90 peak in 2013.5
11/2009- minimum 5/09, <50 peak in 20??
04/2010- minimum 12/08, 70 peak in 2013.5
06/2010- minimum 12/08, 65 peak in 2013.5
Hathaway’s prediction shows a range of from about 40 to 90 at based on a chart on solarcycle24.com. Eye balling it, it doesn’t look like it will make it to 65, but could be in the range of his prediction. Of course if you keep moving the prediction you’re bound to get it eventually, then you can claim victory. /grin/
“Hathaway and Wilson looked at records of geomagnetic activity stretching back almost 150 years and noticed something useful:. “The amount of geomagnetic activity now tells us what the solar cycle is going to be like 6 to 8 years in the future,” says Hathaway.”
Wonder hows come that didn’t work out. ?
If they all start busting out at once what can we expect ?